The vocals are the key for me. He's done a brilliant job in the 2nd video as you said and it's pretty powerful stuff. And I don't think there should be concerns that this isn't 'Eurovisiony' enough. I'd say that was a positive in fact. We've seen many songs last few years doing well without a disco beat and dressing up. Loads. And he seems a nice chap in the wee interview snippets.
I still need to listen to all the entries but I can't see this not being on my 'to do well' list. I'll be raging is this doesn't qualify, honestly.