[Merlin]

Brazil Serie A Fluminense v Nautico Sunday 18th May Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 8.00pm (UK time) Fluminense Fluminense did very well last season, finishing 4th in Serie A. They would have bettered that but for an octet of home draws, which mostly came in the second half of the season - this implies they started better than they finished - and with that in mind, it is probable that they may win this game. Last week, they drew their opener away, 0-0 against Atlético Mineiro - and will without doubt be looking to bag all the points at home. Nautico Nautico are going to struggle again this year, even so, I am quite confident of them avoiding the drop into the obscurity that is Serie B. They could conceivably better their last seasons 15th - but only just! Nautico are in fact a value away team (relative) - but I don't think this is one of the away games they will win - besides,on price alone, they are of no interest for an away bet in this match - the value is with the home or draw. Nautico started the campaign with a 2-1 home win against Goias - but it's a different ball game this week in Rio, and the best they can hope for is a point. ANALYSIS: Last year, this fixture resulted in a 2-1 win for Fluninense, and this scoreline is again a distinct possibility. Further, last term, Nautico lost their first 4 away games,moreover, didn't start winning away until about 3 months into the season - adding more weight to the unlikely away win. VERDICT: I don't think Fluminense are going to hammer Nautico, but ought to manage a win - However, a draw is likely, so will cover that possibility with a correct score side-bet. BET: Fluminense to win @ 2.00 with Bet 365 (6 Points) Side-bet correct score: 2-2 @ 13.00 with Bet 365 (1 Point)