I don't think this is anything like the Ukrainian entry last year. Even though it was bizarre, it was quite clear to see from early on that it would do well in spite of that - it was just a crazy act and people just love how mental it all is - it also created a big stir in eastern europe, who identified with the singer who was popular/controversial there and went into the contest on the back of big local support/chatter.
This couldnt be more different - its not a crazy act, its a very simple novelty one, and the best comparison with last year is the Vampires
They couldnt sing either, were 1/5 on to qualify, and got absolutely nowhere near(20th with 10 to qualify.) Eurovision has changed a little, particularly with the Serbian win last year - the change I think is that Eastern Europe, unlike the west, takes the competition and music fairly seriously - the identity of parading their music on a European stage and winning for the country is very important, whereas the rest of us couldnt give a toss. As a result, a mob jumping about singing about pirates will go down like a lead baloon, same as the swiss, same as the Irish tonight, same as those 3 Estonian prats.
I've been reading the thoughts of a guy who got 10/10 tonight, and he's got this is his '100% wont qualify' category, of which only Cyprus and Lithuania are the others in this heat. I'm not that confident but a lay of this one will probably be one of my bigger bets here.
And that was a broadcast on behalf of the 'Lay Latvia'
party.
With these I guess the problem with laying it is whether you can take the double pain of it actually qualifying and losing money on it at the same time!