From the top
Chris,
West Ham 2.10 on
Stan James, 2.12
Betfair at the moment with 2.22 on the lay side.
Was,
Likewise Preston 2.10 at
Stan James and
Betfair (2.38 on the lay side so certainly some scope for a better price).
I couldn't really seperate Derby and Preston. Up until Derbys losses to Leicester and Coventry they were my fancy to go up. Their performances at Leicester was woeful and losing 6-2 at Coventry.....
Not sure of the relegation issues in these two games and if Leicester and/or Coventry "needed the points". I suppose there was also the Coventry last game at Highfield Road factor as well?
However I am not keen on teams getting beat by big scores and putting in lifeless performances so close to the play offs.
Preston have been great at home this season, only 2 defeats (least in the league) but not so good away.
If Rasiak missing for Derby then it will be a loss, he's done pretty well this season, 16 goals in the league.
H2H's have 3-0 to Preston at home with last weekends 3-1 loss at Derby.
Could be a coin toss between the two and if it is, and if I was forced to bet, then I would have to take the 2.10 on Preston. Will leave it alone though.
Keema,
My first intincts when seeing the play offs were "lay West Ham" as I think they aren't quite good enough to go up. However I have to go with that RFO stat of poorest form team never going up in last 10 seasons.
While not thinking West Ham are good enough to go up (too inconsistant) I was surprised to see they have won at Ipswich (2-0), Sunderland (2-0) and Wigan (2-1) this season. Thats not bad going!
Their home defeat v Sunderland was their only loss in the last 10 game home and away. However in that same period Ipswich have also lost only 1 game (2-0 at Wolves).
As Chris points out thought, West Ham did them at this stage last season and have had the better of them over the 2 league games this season, maybe they just know how to play Ipswich.
I know what you mean about them being there or there abouts all season but I think them missing out on automatic promotion could have an affect on morale. You say they were expecting the play offs but I think they would have possibly being expecting automatic promotion and have to start all over again on the level field of the play offs might take a bit of doing for them.
To be honest I am not actually sure who I see going up. I could make cases for all 4 teams in one way or another so in the end, as I mentioned above, I am going to side with the trends.