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CFL Picks for Week 5 - Good luck!
Ron’s CFL Record:
5* CFL BEST BET Record: 0-4 ATS
1* CFL Record: 8-8 ATS
Straight up Forecast: 12-3-1 SU
Week 4 is now in the books and it’s pretty obvious the West is clearly the class of the CFL at the quarter mark of
the season. The B.C.Lions are the only undefeated team at 4-0 with five other teams with 2 wins and the Hamilton
Tiger Cats are still in search of their first victory of the season. Let’s recap the point spread records thus far
in the ’07 campaign.
The home teams are 7-9-1 ATS, 8-7-1 SU and the UNDER has the slight edge at 10-6-0. When it comes to the point
spread, the Favorites are 8-8-0 ATS, but have a winning straight up record at 11-4-1. Again, the UNDER is 10-6-0 for
the Faves this season. If you are a totals betting player, here’s a breakdown on what the ATS, SU and O/U record is
for when the total is between certain numbers:
When the total is between 43.5 to 46.0:
ATS Record: 2-2-0
SU Record: 2-2
O/U Record: 2-2
When the total is between 46.5 to 49.0:
ATS Record: 6-6-0
SU Record: 5-5-2
O/U Record: 4-8-0
When the total is between 49.5 to 51.0:
ATS Record: 4-4-0
SU Record: 4-4
O/U Record: 6-2-0
When the total is between 51.5 to 54.0:
ATS Record: 4-4-0
SU Record: 4-4
O/U Record: 0-8-0
As you can see, the “Law of Averages” are pretty much dead on for the SIDES numbers, but the Bookmakers have
adjusted to Week 4, as there’s not one total higher than 50!
Here are my picks for Week 5.
Montreal 44.5 vs. Toronto -3.0
Pick: Montreal +3.0
Ron’s Comment: It’s starting to be a mess in Argos land, as every week there’s a Quarterbacking issue and you never
want negative clouds following you during any week of a season, as players and coaches would rather concentrate on
the football aspects of things, rather than worry about player personel choices. Mike McMahon didn’t shine in his
CFL debut, but it’s very rare an ex NFL players can come into the CFL game and dominate. I’ve only seen a handful of
ex-NFL players come in and stand out and Doug Flutie is certainly one of those players. As for the Argos offense,
they have inconsistency at the QB position, the running game is a none-factor and it seems they are depleted at the
WR position, as they signed former OSU standout Rashaun Woods this week. Plus, they signed former Roughrider running
back Dominique Dorsey to their practice roster. It’s week 5 of the CFL campaign and you’re offense has yet to gel
and each game players are introducing themselves to each other, that can’t be a good thing. The only positive about
the Argos is their defense and they are one of the tops at home. The UNDER is 22-10-0 for the Argos at home in their
last 3 seasons and those numbers reflect on the Defense. As for Montreal, this could be the season for them this
Thursday night at the Rogers Centre. If you look at the first 4 games for the 1-3 Alouettes, they lost the first 3
games by 9 points and they couldn’t muster any offense in their 20-18 lost last week vs. Winnipeg. It’s hard to pin
point the exact problem with the Alouettes, but my guess would be the inexperience coaching decision by first year
head coach Jim Popp. How else can you explain their 1-3 record with one of the top QB’s in the league? Look for the
Als to keep this close and when it’s all said and done, I expect Calvillo to put the offense on his shoulder and
sneak out of TO with the 2 points!
*Note: The Alouettes are 4-1-1 ATS against teams with a 41% to 50% winning percentage since ’96.
Forecast: Montreal 23 Toronto 18
Hamilton 47.5 vs. Winnipeg +9.5
Pick: Hamilton +9.0
Ron’s Comment: The Hamilton Tiger Cats played one of their best games of the season against the 4-0 B.C.Lions last
weekend and I’m hoping this will give the Tabbies the team confidence they need to get their first win of the
season. Jesse Lumsden delivered for the Tiger Cats on the ground and Jason Maas finally had a decent game. Winnipeg
is not a dominating team, but seem to be a club who takes advantage of other teams inconsistency and the Milt
Stegall touchdown watch is starting to take a toll on the team mentally. Do I expect the Tiger Cats to win at Canad
Inn Stadium this Friday? Heck no, the-9.5 point road dog Hamilton Tiger Cats have won 2 games in 2 years on the
road, but are a .500 team ATS with their 9-9-0 spread record. The Blue Bombers are still hurting at the Defensive
Back position and are 2-3 SU as a Home Favorite the last 2 years allowing 24 points against per game while scoring
23.8 PPG. Winnipeg is coming off a road win and they could be a bit flat in this spot. Nevertheless, I expect the
Blue Bombers to win, but Hamilton to cover the 9.5 points.
Forecast: Hamilton 25 Winnipeg 33
Edmonton 49.5 vs. Saskatchewan -4.0
Pick: Saskatchewan -4.0 (5* BEST BET)
Ron’s Comment: Kent Austin couldn’t have been a pleasure to be around the practice field this week, as his
Roughriders blew a 19 point lead last week and were up 20-1 at the half and lost 21-20 to Edmonton. What really is
surprising, the Roughriders were blanked the entire second half, not even a single point in a CFL point happy
league. In fact, this Roughriders team is hard to figure out, they win their season opener in one of the toughest
stadiums in Montreal, blow out Calgary one week, get blown out at home and then lay an egg in the second half last
weekend. Who is to blame for this inconsistency? Coach, QB, special teams? One thing is certain, the Saskatchewan
fans will be on their Green and White team if they fail to produce this weekend and I’m sure the players will want
some type of revenge for last weekends lost in Edmonton. Plus, when the total is set between 47.5 to 51 for
Saskatchewan, they are 8-2 ATS and SU in their L10 games. Finally, the Riders are 9-5 ATS as a HF the last 2 years
and average 30.64 on offense while giving up 23.29 against.
Forecast: Edmonton 23 Saskatchewan 40
B.C.Lions 50.0 vs. Calgary -2.0
Pick: B.C. +2.0
Ron’s Comment: The B.C.Lions are a very mature football team and team confidence is at a all time high for Wally
Buono and his unit. I’ve seen the Lions come back in Toronto, take charge in a tough venue like Taylor or Mosaic
stadium in Saskatchewan and even though they under estimated the Tiger Cats last weekend, survive a 3 quarter let
down. Calgary is in one of my perfect handicapping spots to play against and that’s the “letdown” spot. Calgary won
last weekend as a home underdog vs. the Toronto Argonauts and will be feeling good about playing against the Leo’s.
In fact, I’m wondering if the Lions were guilty of looking ahead last week vs. Hamilton, as they might have been
thinking about this game vs. Henri Burris and the Stampeders. The UNDER is 8-2-0 for the B.C.Lions in their last 10
games when the total is between 47.5 and 51.0. Buck Pierce is expected to get the nod this weekend and he’s got sore
ribs, therefore, he might be limited in his capabilities of throwing down field. However, Jarious Jackson is more
than a capable Back up to take the reigns when called upon. Calgary is another team that might have been guilty of
bad scheduling during their 2 game blowout loses on the road, but seems to play much better at home. Here’s an
interesting stat going back to 1996; when any team is home or away and they are facing a CFL team who is 4-0 on the
season, they are 4-4 ATS and SU and the OVER is 6-2. However, one thing I hate going against is a hot football team
who is full of confidence and that’s the B.C.Lions and getting them as a +2.0 Road Underdog is the wise play here.
Forecast: B.C.Lions 24 Calgary 22
Good luck.
Last edited by rcgills : 11-09-2007 at 09:12.
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CFL Picks for Week 5 - Good luck!
