Golf : Ryder Cup - September 22-24

[fasteddy]

Good stuff Parahandy, and Pie-chucker , always helps with as much opinon as possible on the go.

Here's some more thoughts:

Monty/Harrington have played 4 times and are W3 L1...and the formats were 3 4balls and 1 4some...the defeat came in a 4 ball. Excellent stuff.

Monty's best ever partner was Langer , but he plays well with most anyone and indeed has had the most partners.

As a rule Monty will most likely be paired with experience ..so Harrington is a possibility , but McGinley may find he is matched with his friend and fellow Irishman Harrington.
McGinley has a record of P6 W2 L1 H2...which is excellent stuff in the context of his 2 appearences.
Solid in both his singles , I'd say a 1st day Foursomes with Harrington as in 02 and again in 04 will be the call.

Monty rarely is paired with rookies, ( Gilford 91: lost / Lawrie 99: 2-1-1) , and for good reason as his 'mentoring' skills are not his best asset.
After his comments about Olazabal that wouldn't appear to be a good match , while for reasons more 'personal' than professional Westwood/Clarke look good to play , leaving Casey/Donald/Howell/Garcia....and as Casey/Howell played well last time and Garcia/Donald hit it off quickly in 2004 , it leaves Monty with nobody but a rookie!!

Therefore I'm sticking my neck out and suggeting that Monty will be paired with a rookie 1st day....Stenson or Karlsson....my money is on Karlsson after his solid display at the Match Play......I really think these 2 could gel well.

Foursomes would be good for that pairing as Karlsson is long and usually straight , while Monty is an excellent iron player. Karlsson has the more consistent putting as well. Therefore Karlsson off the tee, Monty onto the green and Karlsson getting it in the hole or very close: easy, isn't it?

Fourballs would most likely see Monty paired with the experience and I doubt Woosie will change a winning formula and should start again with 4Balls...therefore Monty will need a solid partner.

As to Top Euro scorers, Westwood was joint top 2004 along with Garcia , while scoring the same in 2002 : 3 pts....but they do usually play all 5 matches so are good bets to be at the top.
Monty may not play all 5 this time , so won't be getting my cash. I believe that Woosie has to put is mark on the Cup and will use Monty as a sacrifice on the 2nd day pairings.

Top Us scorer:

Cink e/w @12/1 bet365 (1/4 odds 1st 3) : this is my dark horse for the US. He is a solid pro, consistently in the Top 20's year after year , and is P7 2-4-1 in the Cup. Not great , but good enough for Lehman to consider him for all 5 plays.
I reckon that 3 or 3.5pts will win the US top scorer , so Cink is value for me.

Of the rookies, I'd take JJHenry e/w @ 40/1 betfred, (1/4 odds 1st 3)...massive price for a player who would be well served by the 4some format. Big off the tee and he must be feeling good about his game after winning his first Tour comp at Buick Championship. Could get to 3 pts and therefore a place beckons.

Top Debutant:

Stenson is favourite across the board @ 5/2 best odds...this is a definite LAY for me. He doesn't fit the profile in my opinion. By that I mean he hasn't got the match play experience plus he looks like the player who will be given the least opportunity as Woosie could decide to try to outpunch a 'rookie filled' USA side and go for overload , meaning someone has to sit it out.

Karlsson has the format experience under his belt and this will count for a huge amount on the day.
The americans have blissful ignorance and gung-ho can do spirit to fall back on , but ultimately if their talisman, Woods, falters then they will find it tough to regroup.

Karlsson @ 4/1 is the call , but better is the Lay of Stenson.

Top Wildcard scorer

This is between : Westwood/Clarke?Cink and Verplank...I won't consider Verplank as he has a possible back injury to recover from and if he does have problems then the last day is where he will feel it.

Cink has lost both his singles , while Clarke has yet to win one.
Westwood only won his fisrt singles last time , having lost 3 in a row before then.

A motley crew to choose from , but as I see Clarke is fav @ 15/8 , while Westwood is 11/4 bluesq.com , the value will lie with Lee Westwood as I think he will play 5 times whereas the others will struggle to get that.

[fasteddy]

here's one market to have a little sentimental punt on:

Hit 1st European shot:

so, who will be the first on the tee for Gb&Ire/ Euro?...let's think...what would make for a very emotional scene ..in Ireland...a very emotional place and people...mmmm?...maybe an Irishman!...yes, yes, I like that ...and maybe someone that has a story of pain, loss, sorrow etc...yes...they like the 'hardship tales' , the 'strength from unity' angle....so...step forward onto the 1st tee......Mr Darren Clarke @ 12/1 skybet .....I'd love to see him lead the way after all he's gone thru and if I can get 12/1 on him as well...Excellent.

It's a market open to abuse by those in the know , but for me the Celtic connection and 'warriors we' mentality , will be felt by Woosie.
He made the decision to make him a wild card , so will have to be seen to stand by him.

This price is ripe for a plunge...so get on it while you can.

[fasteddy]

Last , but not least , some fun bets....

Hole in One : 9/2 paddypower ...4 par 3's on the course , with the 8th looking most likely. All depends on the weather as well, but there are some great iron players on both teams and the chances look good to me.

Biggest winning margin:

Can't see any massive wins , but again the weather will play a part. Imagine the singles with USA well down and the baying irish crowd....USA are not fighters in that respect, not many people are , so the home advantage will come into play , making a possible collapse by some on the US time a distinct possibility.

Overall I'll take close matches being the order of the day and 2 scores jump out;
4&2 @ 40/1
3&2 @ 80/1

A saver on something mad can be done for very small stakes:
10&8 500/1

all odds from skybet

You can do worse that take this bet as you'll have an interest in ANY match from start to finish!...US or Euro/GB&Ire

Value for money, folks...that's what TDP delivers week in , week out.

[Winrew]

Heres the weather forecast up to Saturday ( thats if the K Club is near Dublin )

Weather EDIT , Bugger , it keeps coming up as London

Anyway , the weathers going to be okay with winds around the 12 mph region , dropping down to 7 mph saturday.

[Parahandy]

Great input fasteddy. The odds for a 3&2 or 4&2 margin look attractive.

I got mixed up in my last post and I was reading today it's fourballs in the mornings. We should know the 1st round pairings on Thursday night. One disadvantage is only having short notice of the afternoon foursomes pairings on both days so being near a computer is a must if you want a bet.

I read Woosie has no fear of pairing the Swedes, Stenson and Karlsson which would be interesting. Howell and Casey won a crucial match as rookies last time.

I've a gut feeling that Woods and Furyk will take a bit of beating as a partnership. I liked Tiger's comment about them playing a similar type of game - "I just hit it further," he said. Just a bit.

Seriously, Woods is surely too good a player to continue his poor form in this event, though nobody thought he would be toppled in the 1st Round at Wentworth. There will be more a few punters willing to lay him in the top US points market. I haven't got the bottle.

[kompressaur]

Even im looking forward to this. I never knew it was just brit and ireland v USA till 1979. Im for some wildcard Clark. Hasnt he got the course record? Sorry if i missed it on the thread. Great stuff folks.

[fasteddy]

will there be any live streaming available for on TDP?....Komp?

[Pie-chucker]

When you look at it like this, it's very hard not to favour (and back) Europe.

15 1/2 to 12 1/2 is around 10-1 and looks the icing. Europe as banker bet for me.

Europe practice pairings

Colin Montgomerie and David Howell

Robert Karlsson and Henrik Stenson

Padraig Harrington and Paul McGinley

Paul Casey and Luke Donald

Jose Maria Olazabal and Sergio Garcia

Darren Clarke and Lee Westwood

United States practice pairings

Tiger Woods and Jim Furyk

Vaughn Taylor and Zach Johnson

Chris DiMarco and Phil Mickelson

Scott Verplank and Brett Wetterich

Stewart Cink and JJ Henry

David Toms and Chad Campbell

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Originally Posted by fasteddy

will there be any live streaming available for on TDP?....Komp?

Pretty certain he will be able to hook you up Eddy.

Try and dropa message in another thread he will read just incase he doesn't pop here.

[fasteddy]

Well the weather has started to show its hand with 40mph winds gusting around the course.

It's hard to say whether it will be here on Friday as some forecasts don't seem to agree as to what will be happening and when.
Having some wind play a part over the 3 days would bring a big advantage to Europe as USA have very little experience amongst their rookies in these conditions. Remember also that Woosie has had the greens cut to make them more like a links course. Add into that some rain softened conditions and it gets better and better for Europe.

The pairings that played on Tues had a nice balanced look about them. You can see where he is coming from regards the 'cultural' connections , and to be honest it does make sense.
Spanish passion, the rousing Irish and the clinical Swedish resolve....oh yes...it's a fine bag of tricks he has to play with.

Monty and Howell have a strong feel about them. Casey/Donald have experience and youth. It all looks good on paper and according to the press they are all striking it well.

The effect of the crowd is a massive factor in the results. the Irish will never turn against the players . They will be 110% regardless of the results , and to have that kind of faith and passion 'in your bag' makes a huge difference.

On foreign soil the Yanks have always reverted to 'isolation', an 'us against them' approach. Very rarely have I seen them try to get the crowd on their side, so they are always 1 down before the start.
It will be the same again, no doubt. So, a shaky start and the insular urges will surface and irritate most neutral spectators: Excellent.

The young rookies will find it hard to cope as they have no frame of reference ,plus the expectations will increase as the days progress.
Maybe we will be surprised and see a strong showing from the US rookies , but I find it hard to believe.

Europe are best priced 8/11 generally , yet you can back them
@ Evs betfred, expekt to be 1st Day Leaders

That strikes me a better bet all round. The opening day should have the worst of whatever weather is coming/going plus the course will be at its most receptive which will suit those with a 'European' game.
USA play with a lot of action on their shots , but here you'll need to be more accurate and drop it on green not expecting it to do much.
Finding the bunker will be heavily penalised , so approach shots have to be solid.
Putting will all be about reading the pace...the lines are hard enough as K Club favour tiered greens , but without a read on the pace it will be extremely testing. Look at Woods in the Matchplay...he said himself the pace was the problem , not the line.

There are a multitude of bets put there and you don't need to stake a fortune to have an interest , so dig them out and enjoy the spectacle of Golf.

If you're not a betting person ..fair enough,...enjoy the emotional rollercoaster that is the RYDER CUP...COME ON!!!

[Winrew]

Europe 15 USA 13 , that could be the one for me , priced around 8/1.

Weathers a worry mind , although that could be in Europes favour.

[fasteddy]

here's the Sportinglife's golf expert Dave Tindall's summary ...excellent stuff as ever...

I admit that I was being swayed towards an American Ryder Cup victory a couple of weeks ago.
Tom Lehman appeared a much more impressive captain than Ian Woosnam and had even persuaded ALL his American team to come over to the K Club for two days of practice - a fantastic feat of organisation given their diverse individual schedules and commitments.

But, after absorbing all the facts in the build-up to the event, I now feel that however much Lehman goes the extra mile, he still has an enormous task on his hands to wrestle the trophy back from Europe.
And yet, although the betting makes the Americans slight underdogs, I simply cannot see why Europe are not much heavier favourites.

When Europe have had seemingly everything against them, they've been on offer at anything up to 3/1. The US are in a similar position and yet are just 11/8.

I just cannot understand why.
Firstly, Europe have won four of the last five Ryder Cups, the last two by margins of three and nine points.

Secondly, they have home advantage. This isn't always a factor but this year I think it is. None of the Americans has played here competitively but most of the Europeans are hugely familiar with the K Club as it's staged the European Open for the last 10 years.
What's more, many of them have excellent records on the Palmer course.

Lee Westwood is a two-time winner, Darren Clarke won here in 2001 and holds the course record (an incredible 60), Padraig Harrington has two runners-up finishes, Monty has a second and a third, Jose Maria Olazabal and Robert Karlsson have posted top-four finishes, Paul Casey has finished outside the top 20 just once while Paul McGinley has a host of top-20s.
That's eight Europeans with positive memories of the K Club.
On current form, the Europeans have the edge too.

In the BMW International Open at the start of the month, five of the European 12 filled the top six places - Henrik Stenson (the winner), Harrington, David Howell, Luke Donald and Colin Montgomerie. And last week Casey cruised to victory in the HSBC World Match Play while Karlsson made the semi-finals.
The only one you'd only have a worry about is Paul McGinley but Woosie is hinting at not playing him until the singles and if anything will spark the Irishman it's playing in a Ryder Cup in his homeland.

The excellent performances of the Europeans contrast with most of the US team.
Although Woods and Furyk have been on fire in strokeplay events, both crashed out in round one at Wentworth in the matchplay format and Phil Mickelson's season has been a write-off since he blew victory at the final hole of the US Open.

Chad Campbell has managed just one finish inside the top 50 in his last seven starts and missed the cut in last week's Lumber 84 Classic - as did Scott Verplank, who has also been troubled by injury.
Brett Wetterich has missed five of his last 10 cuts, managing just two top 50s in that time, Zach Johnson has posted just one top 20 in his last 10, Vaughn Taylor has missed two of his last three cuts while Chris DiMarco hasn't posted a single top-10 on US soil this season.

But what about that old chestnut about America having the best players on the world rankings?

True, they have the top three in the world but so what? Does that make them good Ryder Cup players? No.
Woods has won just eight points from a possible 20 while Furyk has just five from 15.
Mickelson just creeps above the 50 per cent win rate mark but last time he took just one point from four and he goes into the event this year in poor form.
Even though Woods and Furyk teamed up successfully in the Presidents Cup, they are way short of being pencilled in for guaranteed points here.

And what if they don't perform? In such a top-heavy team, if the main men are beaten, that will leave the Americans with a mountain to climb.

Europe, by contrast, have numerous partnerships which can flourish and that gives them a much stronger 'Plan B'.
Woosie may look unconvincing in front of the cameras but behind the scenes all the signs coming out of the European camp are that he has their respect and is creating a relaxed and harmonious camp.

This European team - described by many as the strongest ever assembled - doesn't need to be over-captained. They have the class and experience to triumph and all Woosie needs to do is keep them ticking over.
One slight concern is that if you go through the two sides, the Americans, on paper, have more clutch putters. Or perhaps fewer dodgy ones.

But, there are two ripostes to that. Firstly, the so-called iffy putters on the European team - Monty and Garcia for example - always seem to raise their game on the greens in Ryder Cups.
And, secondly, many of the Americans prefer fast, slick greens. They won't get them this week and that is a blow to the likes of Woods, Furyk and DiMarco.

I do actually think it could be quite close over the first couple of days.
But, while some of the weak links on the US side, can be hidden in foursomes and fourballs, I fancy that they'll be exposed in the singles.
So how best to turn these thoughts into a betting strategy?
To begin with, a European win at 5/6 with Hills is a must.

Secondly, the greater depth of Woosie's side means I like them at Even money to win the singles. Correct-score betting can be problematic, especially if matches are declared halves when the Cup has already been won.

But covering a couple of scorelines seems reasonable and I think it's worth having a little on Europe winning by 15-13 and 15.5-12.5.

Top points scorer betting is more difficult.
With so much collective strength in the European camp, it's hard to pinpoint any one player. The bookies seem to have it about right.
But there is scope in the American camp.

If the Woods/Furyk partnership stays intact, then you simply have to take the 9/2 about Jimbo over the 5/2 about Tiger, especially as Furyk is unbeaten in singles.
Likewise, better to back DiMarco at 8s than likely partner Mickelson at 13/2.

But there is a dark horse on the US team who may just emerge as a real surprise pacakage.
The player is J.J. Henry, who has been getting plenty of sneaky mentions by both players and journalists.
I've heard several US writers talk him up while David Toms said in his press conference: "He's an impressive guy, playing great since we've been here."

Toms also revealed that the highlight in Wednesday's practice was Henry's 200-yard approach with a five-iron which hit the pin and lipped out.The heavy rain and wind also gives him an edge.

Henry, 10th and 6th on his last two US starts, said on Wednesday: "I grew up in the north east. So I played in a lot of lousy weather so to speak. Sometimes you had so many layers on you couldn't swing."

His length off the tee will be a big help if it stays soggy and damp and the only problem is how best to play him.

We'll definitely back him each-way to be top US points scorer at 40s and also to be top debutant at 11/2.

Wetterich, Taylor and Johnson will struggle to get a game while Stenson and Karlsson may also get limited action.
But however well Henry plays, my colours are nailed firmly to the Europeans.

For Lehman to get this US team over the line would be a remarkable effort.
But when all you'll get on such a fantastic achievement is 11/8, you know there must be some value on the other side.

[Bigkegman]

I'm going against the grain here and going to back the USA USA USA Get in the hole ! your the man !!!

Just heard Monty on the radio stating how this was the best ever Ryder Cup team but I'm not too sure and I just think they are over confident. And what is a two horse race 11/8 is a decent price imo.

[Pie-chucker]

Unless the tied match has been declared a non-runner, Bigkegs, it's a 3-horse race. But. point taken, backing the bookie underdogs in Ryder Cup recently would have made you money.

[fasteddy]

Unlike a 2 or 3 horse race this event requires you to assess the form of not one competitor but TEN....it is in effect a 20 horse race.....split into 2 teams of 10...so there is a lot more to consider than USA vs Euro/Gb&Ire , but I can see your point when you look at the results over the years...it is very close...with last year's SLAUGHTER being an exception in recent times.

Good luck BKM...but may your bets be bog paper by sunday evening!!! COME ON!!!!!