World Athletics Champs - Start Friday

[Beanie]

Looks like a few good events...odds to follow nearer the time.

[bulit]

Sure.
There's a couple sure bets. Where did you find odds?

[engineer]

I'll try to help also here.
There are some odds, mainly for 100, 110 and 400 meters for now at various bookies. Maybe tommorow we'll have a different story.

[Beanie]

Quick one that's doing the rounds on a forum or two at the moment...

Great Britain Not to win a medal @ 12/1 with William Hill

Missed the 16/1 earlier this morning unfortunately, but there is still value taking that price I think. Rather than go through the possible medal winners myself I'll quote RichyH off the Betfair forums:

"a bet which in my opinion is wrongly priced up by a high street bookie.

'Great Britain to win a medal at the World Athletic Championships - NO @ 16/1'

Ok I am sorry it is not a tennis bet but I post on here regularly and thought I would draw your attention to it. The bet which I was amazed to see such a large price on yesterday will require an online account with Billy Hills. (I went into 2 shops and they would not accept my bet.)

Just a few little bits of info for those intrested. I used to train a lot for athletics as a kid and have followed it since the mid 80s so do have a decent knowledge of the sport.
I had been shopping about for a price on team GB getting no medals for 2 weeks now and was hoping if I was lucky to maybe find someone offering me 3/1 so was amazed by the 16/1 on offer.
At the last World championships team GB only had one individual competitor qualifiy for a final in which he was no where near winning a medal (Came 7th I think). The only medal came in the 4x100m relay.
In my opinion there are a few outsiders who could sneak medals but I do not think they will. These are;

Jessica Ennis in the womans Heptathlon. She is a young up and comer and is a good prospect but this is her first major championships and she has already stated this week she feels weighed down with pressure to win a medal. Ranked 3rd in the world this year so will have a chance but with Eunice Barber back in competition but not included within those rankings she will start 4th favourite.

Phillips Idowu in the mens Triple jump. His chances of a medal will have increased this week due to withdrawal of the world number one Christian Olsson. Idowu started the season very well and had his form continued I would not be backing with such confidence, however Idowu recently aggrivated an old back injury and has not been competing. With the injury worry, his temprament and the fact 9 other people have jumped further than him this year I feel a lot more confident.

Relays. Both female relay teams are no where near strong enough to mount a challange and will do well to get to the final. The male 4x400m relay team should get to the final however with no real hope of getting a medal. The only one which may have a chance in my opinion is the mens 4x100m. They are always strong and with the added danger of getting the batten round safely for the top teams anything can happen. Team GB will not be favourites to get a medal behind usa, jamacia, france, russia and possible cuba but will have a chance if things go there way.

So in summing up I foresee 3 outsiders with a shot at winning team GB a medal which I am sure you all agree means massive value at 16/1 on no medals."

[all_funkt_up]

Excellent lads. I do love obscure stuff like this. That 'no-medal' bet seems tempting, but surely we must win a medal in something... We arent that bad at everything are we?

[Beanie]

We should win a medal, but we would need to be over 90% sure we would to call the 12/1 bet fair, and on the evidence it's nowhere near 90%.

Idowu is the best prospect, but he has injury concerns and even if he overcomes those he is erratic at best. Ennis is still fairly young. Tomlinson could do something in the high jump, but again, erratic.

In 2005 we won 3 medals. 1 gold...Radcliffe in the marathon...she's not competing. Bronze in the men's 4x100 - that's our other big chance, but Jamaica and the USA are a country mile ahead of us at the moment. So we could sneak a bronze, but again that's an outside sneak...there's plenty other teams looking in better shape than us.

The 4x400 teams and the womens 4x100 wont be getting anywhere near the medals.

So one decent medal shout, and a handful of longshots.

Infact even that could be being generous...that one decent medal shout is priced up as the 10th favourite for the Triple jump by Ladbrokes. (Ennis 5th favourite for the Heptathlon.)

[trickrick]

Beanie are you saying the 12/1 bet for us not to win a medal is fair or the other way round. I would have thought 12/1 is a good bet based on your analysis.. Or am I missing something..?

[Beanie]

Apologies for the confusion - I think its superb value. I was saying(clumsily) that if GB were 90odd+ percent to win a medal then the bet would be fair/poor value(fair as in you would call evens on a coin flip fair). If it's less than 90%, then the 12/1 is good value.

It's a diffcult thing to price up as in essence its a huge accumulator across dozens of events, but having run through a few different combos of likely probabilities for individual events the highest I can come up with/best case scenario(for team GB) is 75% for us to win a medal overall which would suggest a fair price of 4.00 for the not to win a medal bet.

[Beanie]

Cut again to 6/1...that price is prob best left alone.

[Beanie]

Mmmm still alive, but not by much. Pavey squeezed into 4th in the 10k...that would've been short live.

Terrible news in the heptathlon with 2nd favourite Barber pulling out pre-event which gives the two british women a realistic medal shot...they lie 3rd and 4th after day 1 and with long jump to come Sotherton looks good for a medal here. Have to hope her usually hopeless javelin(which she's been working a lot on) crumbles again.

[Beanie]

Bah, all went wrong when Barber pulled out as Sotherton nabs 3rd as expected.

[Bigkegman]

At work and had five live on the radio when the 100m final was on.

That was some commentary !!!! I thought listening to the Grand Pricks was bad enough but the running

[slick]

Aye caught that this morning Keggers, Tyson Gay is the new champion.

some name that aint it, I reckon his Parents picked Tyson so he wouldent be picked on as much with a surname like that. It obviously never worked and hence the reason he can run like fcuk

Atheltics have lost their appeal somewhat havent they, I used to love them when i was younger and tell the truth didnt even realise the world Champs were on until earlier on this week, I can see the same happening to the Olympics in time which is a mighty shame.

Its probably down to use be useless at everything we do nowadays not that we were ever that good but there was a time when we used to have a few good champs in the era of Daley Thompson, Coe and Ovett etc.

Makes u wonder what the 2012 Olympics in London will be like if we have no prospects of winning any medals.

[Beanie]

Taking Usain Bolt @ 3.50 for the 200m.

The obvious favourite is Tyson Gay, the new 100m champ, but he has already said a couple of times that he is a little fatigued from that event, and running 2x 200m today and having the semi and final tomorrow(in which he will have to run near 100% in both) then come the final we might not see Gay at his best.

2nd American is Wallace Spearmon...but he doesn't look in the shape he needs to be and could even come under pressure for the bronze medal.

That leaves Bolt as the only real threat to Gay. In the 2nd round today, Bolt clocked 20.13 when cruising from about 80m to go - had he run through it could well have been a 19.70 or so. At his best, considering Gay's already tired from the 100m, I think Bolt is easily the main man here.

The only problem is a mental one...Bolt is still young(21) and unproven in the big champs. Whatever happens Gay will put him under pressure down the straight, and Bolt could easily tie up and blow it.

Whatever happens, I expect another dominant semi final display from Bolt, and quite possibly a dodgy one from Gay, so come the start of the final I can't imagine the 3.50 will be about, which will then allow the possibility of a lay depending on how Gay looks.

[trickrick]

Think I'll join you in backing the 'Lightning Bolt 'for the 200 m....He must have been pulling up at about 150 metres and he still nearly broke 20 seconds..

Kicking myself as well cos Boylesports were 11/4 on him about an hour ago..Now 9/4