Outright betting

[Beanie]

Ok, been nearly a week now so plenty time to weigh them up to some degree - any thoughts?

Kat - Gonna gain momentum for a while yet - not near any of the arguments, not gonna say anything out of place, and likely to be at the centre of many of the highlights. Long term tho the language barrier will stop her getting involved in any of the serious discussions/stories and that will prevent her getting the support needed to win.

Michael - seemed very strange during the thong incident, and I reckon we'll see more of that in time...dodgy personality.

Rachel - Bit too nice - voters won't really relate to her and she seems a bit weak in arguments. Very vanilla.

Luke - I don't see the voting public relating to Luke either - all very 'ooo where's me washboard' and i can't imagine young uns picking up the phone in their droves.

Darnell - he's got mileage - from the highlights yesterday he seems very level headed and should be on the right side of any argument. Decent character who I think has a decent shout at this.

Dale - not as arrogant or idiotic as his VT but he isn't really doing anything of note. Too much space between the ears and while he will get away with it for a few weeks yet he's got to develop in some way to have any chance.

Rex - Can't imagine a posh fella getting much support without any other good reason and I don't see much substance(yet) - no reason to vote out but no reason to vote for.

Mohamed - not sure his heads quite in the right place - his diary room moments show a bit of a selfish side - seems to love his hair a bit too much and otherwise is a bit disappointing compared to his VT which looked promising.

Mario - not a sniff. Funny to watch tho.

Jennifer - Looks a tad overpriced to me - head in the right place and will come out best out of any potential relationship with Dale.

Rebecca - should go early - nice enough but won't get support from other young girls - bit of a Bonnie character.

Dennis - horrid fellow - should become the next hate fiigure if he outlasts alex.

Lisa - something not right about her - should be gone early.

Steph - not sure yet - if she survives then it could go either way as she's shown both good and bad traits so far.

Sylvia - might go before Alex as BB may sacrifice a few pawns to keep the queen in - if she outlasts her tho then there's enough about her to change her fortunes.

Alex - making the show at the minute - ridiculously aggressive and gone as soon as up. As usual tho, might survive another week or two if there's a twist.

So i'm still not convinced by any of the market leaders and it's there for the taking if someone develops a spine and stands up to Alex, while still having a fun side. Tempted by small punts on Darnell and Jen at the mo.

[Cinny]

Havent watched this at all but the majority of people ive asked about this who watch it all reckon the thai gal will win it thats shes a laugh etc. May have a punt on her for interest.

[Beanie]

Kat's price looks amazingly short now at sub 3.5 - I dont see how she can develop from here - it's weeks and weeks and weeks of exactly the same to come.

Overpriced at the moment...i'd say Mikey(just), Dale, Rex, Darnell(poss) and...

Dennis

Amazing as it sounds, I think he's a cracking price.

He had an absolutely shocking start, almost didnt get out the blocks. He was with Alex's group, being just as bad as her, a repulsive little fellow.

But just recently, it twigged that she is oing way too far and he distanced himself from her...so I think there's evidence there that he has the ability to read the game a bit, certainly a lot better than a lot of people in there.

2nd, with Alex gone, he can cut free from that 'group' that he was in by default, and start again.

3rd, he actually has the potential to be funny - it's going to take a lot to repair the damage done in the first week, but its only 1 week out of 13, so its not impossible, and given the character he is he'll get plenty of camera time, for better or for worse.

Will probably end up being his own worse enemy, but at 110, there isn't much outlay for a speculative punt.

2pts Dennis @ 110.

[trickrick]

My thoughts on the contestants now we are bit into the competition..

Kathreya
I guess a worthy favourite so far..Querky, funny (at times) although this is due to her bizarre use of English and her obsession with cookies as much as anything else… She also isn’t involved in any of the conflicts/action and is flying so low under the radar you’d think she was a submarine.. However the price is way too short IMO, and there is only so much “hirarrious” and “COOKIE” you can cope with without wanting to slap her. Not sure about the staying power in this one

Luke
Second favourite but this rat-boy is a sneaky little shit and strikes me as a geek who is used to watching 24 hour streaming Big Brother in his bedroom at his mum and dads. Changes alliegences all the time and is definately playing the game. However he has the ‘geek charm’ that generally does well in this competition, but he has a strange camp behaviour that overplays everything..

Michael
You can’t help but feel sorry for him, but at the same time can be repulsed by his creepy behaviour and his bizarre sense of humour – the stand up comedy is did last night was weird.. Still he is doing his best under difficult circumstances and I can see housemates being wary of voting against him on the grounds of disability discrimination from the audience.!! Should last to the end if he doesn’t crack up..

Darnall
Definitely building momentum in terms of his persona.. Another strange looking character, but after a shakey start appears to be liked by the Housemates and seems to be warming to the audience. Still think his criminal record in the States won’t help, but another with mileage..

Rachel
Squeaky clean Rachel…Arrrr…Does no wrong..Sweetness personified.. But boring as hell. Nice girl, but possibly playing a game as well and I cannot see her reaching the end..

Rebecca
I quite like Becks.. Not sure if she is playing up to the token dizzy lass image, but the more I watch the more I think she is genuine. Another flying below the radar and definitely will last a while longer. However probably needs to start to be more active within the group – probably once the group shrinks a tad.. Dizzy girls do well in BB because the female viewers do not see her as a threat and are willing to vote for them as they prob see/want to see a bit of themselves in such housemates..

Rex
Rex the enigma.. I actually like the guy and feel there is some confidence about him which will help him along the way. He obviously cooks for the group which helps (although may well hinder him eventually). Quite a silently strong character who appears to have the respect of most of the housemates. However I do agree with Beanie that his well heeled background could be a major hindrance to him. Still..A nice price at the moment.

Dale
Another housemate at a good price is Dale. Nothing like his pre-entrance recording, he is another ground sweeper who has avoided the radar to the extent that he is perceived as boring. However he seems to be building a bit of the appeal back as he becomes more involved, and although the relationship with Jennifer could be his long term downfall, it could well carry him along quite nicely in the short term..

Mo
Sadly as much as he tries he seems to annoy the other Housemates and unfortunately he doesn’t have the outside appeal to save him from a number of eviction votes that he will no doubt face..

Jennifer
Single ballsy mums from the North East will no doubt get the votes, and the love triangle may also work to her advantage short term so there may be possibilities at a big price to lay off later. However I don’t particularly like her and I cannot see her winning..(or coming close)

Mario
Bizarrely I think Mario is starting to become a bit of a cult figure – Indeed his Betfair odds now stand around 43 with Betfair – amazing when you think he must have been trading around 120 or more earlier last week.. The King and Queen Lisa discussion at their thrones routine is quite amusing – almost a comedy routine, and he loves being the daddy of the House. He loves himself so much it is hilarious, and he almost views himself messiah-like, the way he said his ‘job is done’ in looking after Michael settle in..

Stuart
Too early to make a judgement, but even at this early stage any newcomer has an uphill struggle, and I guess it’s up to him whether he can take the good looking housemate mantle from Dale. He certainly looks like he has more of an ‘edge’ to his character than Dale at this moment.

Lisa
Boring and strange looking. If Mario had got the boot, I would have seen her odds improve as I think her role as mother figure would have helped. Unfortunately now she looks like a drag artist that’s just failed an audition for gladiators (with a strange taste in clothes), and she can’t last..

Dennis
He is the token gay with all the nasty habits that gay men have, and none of the good amusing camp routines that have endeared earlier gay housemates.. In fact he looks like a gay Damien from The Omen – Evil !!!

Sylvia
Fit girl, but alas she’s a goner and her desperate attempts at tears and clinging on to a man won’t help her..

In summary - well it’s still up for grabs. Kathreya is far too short at the moment (5/4 with Bet365!!) (although when she’s odds on in a couple of weeks I’ll probably regret it and realise how shreud Bet365 were..…)

I think Rex and Dale are good prices at the moment and Michael potentially is as he surely will last. Rebecca is one that will no doubt last out, and even Mario could last a few more weeks. I have big prices on Betfair for Dale and Rex and something on Michael, but that’s it at the moment as I’m sure there’ll be more opportunites to find some decent prices (and the winner….If it isn’t Kathreya!)

[kosar19]

I think the 365 guy is shrewd. To be honest I dont see any contender to Queen Kats crown. Has a huge lead in the better polls, and unless she makes a remarkable faux pas, feel that the others are running for a place.
Still early days, but Pete and Brian both lead from the front, and I see Kat in the same league. Has an empathy about her, which the others can only fake.
I almost see this as a remake of the final day between Nadia and the hated Jason (who believed he was the peoples champion). Mario vs Kat would be the perfect scenario, as the David Brent of the BB house and his 14 Million fans, are crushed by the wonderful Thai.

[trickrick]

Originally Posted by kosar19

I think the 365 guy is shrewd. To be honest I dont see any contender to Queen Kats crown. Has a huge lead in the better polls, and unless she makes a remarkable faux pas, feel that the others are running for a place.
Still early days, but Pete and Brian both lead from the front, and I see Kat in the same league. Has an empathy about her, which the others can only fake.
I almost see this as a remake of the final day between Nadia and the hated Jason (who believed he was the peoples champion). Mario vs Kat would be the perfect scenario, as the David Brent of the BB house and his 14 Million fans, are crushed by the wonderful Thai.

Shrewd indeed

Actually you almost make that sound convincing for final day.. Might have to check out Brenty's current price !

[Beanie]

I've bailed on the Dale bet over the last 24 hours between odds of 34-55 for what I can - he's just too thick to get anywhere. He's not an Anthony, and never will be, and he just kicked off at Mo again(for being spat at) all because he seems to think that he'll come across well in defending Jen(who is becoming hated and is heading to Stu's arms anyway.)

What a tool - he's hopeless at expressing himself, is in completely the wrong group, and with Sylvia going and Jen and Stu getting closer, he's only going to get worse. All I needed was one ounce of intelligence and he'd have been a long distance runner with absolutely no effort.

Time for me to start again

[Beanie]

Show tonight is v. v. important for the direction of this show now, certainly a turning point.

Kat is doing nothing and looks waay too short - the bitchy team are convinced Mo is going tonight(Jen just said 'Justice will be served tonight') and will probably lose it again when Sylvia goes, and from there Mo, Mario, Rex and Darnell could have the power in the house as the others self combust around them, with Kat shouting about cookies in the background.

[kosar19]

I think the main show is keeping Kat very quiet, as the main feed shows a very caring and warm, funny girl. Not a major problem, because every one else are self destructing around her. Still leads the majority of the polls, so I think her price is about right.
Darnell and Mario are the two movers in the market, as both are showing a decent side. In fact Darnell telling the Bitches to their faces the fact they are bitches has been the highlight of the series so far.

[Beanie]

I don't understand how she goes on from here tho - she doesn't have another gear. During any significant house episode from now until the end of the show she'll sit back in the corner, either crying or with her mouth shut. That kind of behaviour will ensure that she makes the finial week, but there's not much doubt in my mind that someone that actually expresses their opinions like a Darnell will eventually get the public support needed because he gives the viewers something to agree with.

The point for me is that Kat has shown all she has to show - and her price is only going one way from now on(IMO).

[Beanie]

Darnell having another stormer tonight - he looks the man to topple the sitting duck at the top of the market, atleast in the short term.

His temper looks a little suspect, but he reads situations brilliantly and so is only getting angry when 100% correct...interesting fella and gonna get bags of respect for how he weighs things up.

I'm getting stuck in with 5pts @ 5.2 - I honestly think he'll be fave this week.

Negatives - the one group has turned against him a little after the Dennis incident - could get votes from Jen, Rebecca etc, but they should have bigger fish to fry(Rex/Mo etc.)

Seems to have a strange liking for Rebecca - said some very dodgy things when drunk last night, which were only omitted from the highlights show because of the spitting incident which got all the airtime.

And long term, as Trick says, certain sections of the media seem to dislike him and like bringing up his American past(possibly more stuff to come from that?)

Anyway, looks a decent short term trade to me.

[2damnhype]

First time i have read this thread, and i am glad to see that its not just me that cannot understand why Kat has headed the market for so long.
I only watch the stuff they put out on the telly, and for me she hardly features.

Kat - obsession with cookies is slightly disturbing, don't know any subject upon which she has an opinion, other than that people should get on with each other

Darnell - he is the man - was spot on in going nuts when Dennis gobbed on Mo - did really well when Jen was giving him grief in not telling her where to go. He is funny, raps like a good 'un, and up until he was forced into sleeping in the room with Mo, Rex and Mario, he hadn't really been allied to any group. The Rebecca infatuation is a bit of a let down though - i don;t want to see it if she does 'put out' for him!!

Rachel - BORING

Michael - one of the funniest men in the house - his joke about his girlfriend, the whipped cream and his guide dog was fantastic! I don't mean to be crass, but he should have seen their faces! I like the fact that if he has got something to say he just comes out with it.

Luke - another funny guy, but a bit sly and he does bob about too much from person to person. I am sure he will adapt his attitude where he thinks it will benefit him, rather than being how he really is.

Mario - absolute tool in the first week, but the Terry and June moments with Lisa are ace. Overplays the 'daddy card' in my eyes, but he is entertaining.

Rex - I don't really like him much, don't give a toss about his behaviour the other night, where he did apologise for the painting first time, he just seems a bit too smug and dismissive of anything he doesn't agree with.

Mo - my opinion of him has changed, i thought he was ok, but this 'bully victim' stuff is becoming a bit repetitive - still did not deserve to be gobbed on.

Stuart - i think this fella is ok, will do better now that Sylv is out of the way, and will benefit is Jen goes too.

Dale - he is worried that people have him down as acting like a nob, unlucky fella cos you are spot on! What was that all about - Mr Caveman protecting his woman - lol

Rebecca - another one who got involved for no real reason, but on the whole i think she is ok, apart from getting them out early doors, can;t think of anything else about her!

Lisa - eyes like Cleopatra, rest of body more like Anthony. She has't really got involved, and i struggle to see why anyone would vote for her.

Jen - before the other night I thought she was ok, there was a bit of interest with the Dale/Stuart/Sylv thing, but now I can't see anyway back for her, she seems to refute any wrongdoing and seems intent on giving others a hard time.

[trickrick]

Well it is back to the drawing board for me as well.. A pretty dire set of figures on my Betfair account and I pretty much have accepted that I have thrown away some money by jumping in too quickly with my bets.. A plethora of red is not a pretty sight...

My only green is Rex, which says it all really..

Looking at it at the moment, I agree with Beanie that Darnell looks the man to be on.. He seems to be very clued up on how the other housemates are playing the game, and to be fair he does talk a lot of sense when he does speak. He was the one to have a go at the rest about the spitting incidence and it really did make them all look a right set of morons.. He has a bit of an edge to him and his obvious distinct look has to work in his favour. The edit played him so well last night - particularly his altercation with Rebecca who he appears to fancy ), and the sad image of him after the arguement was quite poignant..

[Beanie]

Fantastic show again for Darnell tonight, featured heavily with a variety of HMs, and then a perfect DR soundbite when saying 'I wish I was someone's favourite' or something...at which the Great British Public all sang in unison at their tellys 'YOUR MY F***ING FAVOURITE YOU PASTY GOD!!!!'

Kat's highlights tonight consisted of walking across the room in the background a couple of times, as usual

[mrmuzeman]

Originally Posted by Beanie

then a perfect DR soundbite when saying 'I wish I was someone's favourite' or something...at which the Great British Public all sang in unison at their tellys 'YOUR MY F***ING FAVOURITE YOU PASTY GOD!!!!'

Its funny because its true