7th Eviction

[Beanie]

I think it's a good idea to get some ideas sorted on this before tonights show. With Darnell's big moment in staying tonight, Luke having a huge edit tonight and his reaction to Bex going also v. v. important, tonight and this weekend has the potential for a major re ordering of the odds, altho which way that goes is up for debate, so worth getting a head start I think by getting the head round how next weeks noms are likely to go...will attempt to crack it later this afternoon but would be interested to read others' thoughts...

[Beanie]

Ok, let's try to sort this out...Lisa is emerging as a strong candidate to be HoH - she's not got too many enemies and hasn't been in Heaven, so I think she'll be HoH if the divide remains this week. Also assuming Bex goes - and therefore trying to guage the effect Mo and Darnell surviving over a perceived heavyweight(in more ways than one!) will change things...

Going back to last week's noms(ones in red), and trying to figure out if they will change(and taking Lisa as immune)...

Dale: Darnell and Mo - He'll definately stick with Mo, as he can't stand him, but he was good mates with Darnell, and as much as that isn't the case any more, I see that nom last week as a one week punishment. I think he'll switch his 2nd nom to Rachel, who he really seems to have a problem with at the moment.

Luke: Darnell and Mo - Mo, again, should be in line for Luke, esp after the kiss with Bex. Again tho, I think he could switch from Darnell too - the nom last week was targetted at the poor HoH showing, and Luke is a big enough gameplayer to look to move on to someone else at the moment. He has led the campaign v Rachel, and I'd expect him to keep it up over the weekend.

Stuart: Darnell and Mo - Stuart too should go for Rachel, as he has done twice before. The Luke/Stu/Dale block are very good at coordinating their votes without talking about noms. The 2nd one...I'm unsure - a toss of the coin between the two above. However, spurred on by Luke over the weekend, I think it will still be Mo.

Darnell: Rebecca and Luke - 100% still going for Luke, no doubt. I think he'll give Dale his second - he's been annoyed about his 'friends' who must have nominated him this week, a clear attack on Dale, and he has plenty reason to fire one back this week.

Kathreya: Rebecca and Luke - Again, the Luke nom should be unchanged. Her 2nd nom is trickier, but should go to Dale as she tried to nominate him this week(I think only to be told he was immune.) His treatment of hell gives extra reason.

Rachel: Rebecca and Luke Deffo gunning for Luke again. 2nd one is tricky - had more than a few run ins with Rex this week, but she considers him a decent friend in the house. Think it will be Dale...she said this week that she thought he was a friend and was disappointed in him over the hamper.

Mohamed: Rebecca and Stuart - Dale certainly - tried to nom him last week and will do this week. Second one either to Luke or Stu - but reckon he will stick with Stu despite the kissing scandal - never got on with him either.

Maysoon: Rebecca and Stuart - Not sure she will go for Stu after they worked well on the task and had plenty chats this week. Leaves a question mark over who it will be - not sure, question marks beside both, but she seemed uncomfortable in Heaven this week, being asked who she would automatically evict if she could, and refusing to answer, so I think she'll be after the ringleader of that, Luke. 2nd one to Darnell, or Dale. I'll go with Darnell after his tough week.

Lisa: Rex and Darnell - Rex again, no love lost there. Think she will go for Dale too, simply over the way he treated Hell this week.

Mikey: Darnell and Kat - Can't see either of these changing really, same again. Darnell and Kat.

Rex: Lisa and Mikey - continues to have run ins with Mikey - think that one will stay constant. Second one to Kat I think.

Sara: Mo and Rachel - Stick with Rachel I think. Will perhaps switch from Mo after his showing in the task and him giving her a token to heaven for the day - and after Dale keeping her out of heaven, maybe one for him this week.

------------------------------------------------------

Tallies

Dale - 6
Rachel - 4
Luke - 4
Mo - 3
Darnell - 2
Kat - 2
Stu - 1
Rex - 1
Mikey - 1

So Dale looks certain to be up by my reckoning(6 looks high tho) - and Rachel and Luke up too. Luke could be nommed by Mo to mean just Dale v Luke, or Mo could be nommed by someone, somewhere, to make it a 4 way tie.

Do with that what you will, a lay of Dale, Luke and Rachel in the outright maybe best for tonight, or just wait for the eviction market.

Phew.

[Beanie]

I'm away for most of Saturday and Sunday which unfortunately means getting stuck into the prices early, before seeing what the books come up with. Nevertheless, the punts look solid value to me:

3pts Luke @ average 5.7
3pts Dale @ 6.4
1pt Rachel @ 19.5

[mrmuzeman]

My nom predictions

Dale - Mo + Rachel/Lisa
Darnell - Dale/Luke
Kat - Dale/Luke
Lisa - Dale/Rex
Luke - Darnell/Mo
Maysoon - ???? I guess id say Stu and havent a clue for the other
Mikey - 2 from 4, Dale/Darnell/Kat/Rex
Mo - Dale/Stu
Rachel - Luke/Dale
Rex - Lisa/Mikey
Sara - Rachel/Dale
Stu - Mo/Rachel

Which means...

Dale - 6 or 7
Luke - 3
Mo - 3
Rachel - 2 or 3

So mine differs from Beanies in that hes got a real hunch Rachels gona get done over this week wheras I side with Mo being up (although definite possibility of also Rachel in a 4 way). Both totally agreed on Dale winning the lions share of the noms and Luke getting enough to be up.

Regarding Rachel though, does it even matter if shes up or not? Surely she wont get evicted anyway, whos gona dislike her much to pick up the phone in their droves? They cant even edit against her if they wanted too cos shes just nice. So basically can take her out the equation for betting purposes imo.

Pretty interesting otherwise though, Dale, Luke or Mo hmm. Theyd all get their share of votes (Dales only being recently acquired I would guess). Current odds go 6/4 Mo, 4/1 Dale, 5/1 Luke. Given the fact that if Beanies right, Mo wont even be up, that 6/4 is pretty poor. I feel the bad editing potential is there if they wish to use it against all of them although I believe they wouldnt edit Luke badly at all as the show depends on him a fair bit entertainment wise. I guess the value bet is Dale at this point for sure as hes a cert to be up.

[trickrick]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

Given the fact that if Beanies right, Mo wont even be up, that 6/4 is pretty poor.

I would view this more as a 6/4 bet on if Mo is up for eviction next week, because the likelihood is that if he is up, and he is up against any of the expected nominated ones he should go..

Then again - what do I know..? Earlier this week Trickrick Bookmakers (now bust after a deluge of heavyweight bets from a bigshot punter called Kosar) were offering 5/4 on Bex to be evicted yesterday..

[kosar19]

Ok Trick, what price Luke if he is up against Mo.

Think the others must be working overtime now and finally worked out team bitch are dead in the water. Now they can go for Queen bitch himself, ratboy, and I can alraedy see 5 votes heading his way, which will see him up.
Rex totally nailed him last night, and if they show this tonight then Luke can be pricked with a fork, as he is almost done.

On the Outright front, I suggest you should all get on Rex as I am of the strong opinion that he has won this show now (especially on last nights evidence)

[kosar19]

And just in case you are wondering where his Noms will come from they will be

Rachel
Kat
Darnell
Rex
and either one (or both) of
Mo
Maysoon

[Beanie]

Yep, Rex is a clever cookie, and has obviously read the situation well. Luke even more chance of being up now, I just hope it's v Dale. Rex deffo looking towards Mikey and Luke as his noms now I think.

Stu had a mare late last night as well, and he could pick up some extra noms now too.

I'm nicely green on the fella, but I still amn't convinced Rex has a realistic chance - surely someone being rich must be a concern when it comes to voting for who wins £100k kosar?

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

Regarding Rachel though, does it even matter if shes up or not? Surely she wont get evicted anyway, whos gona dislike her much to pick up the phone in their droves? They cant even edit against her if they wanted too cos shes just nice. So basically can take her out the equation for betting purposes imo.

On that point, if it's a 3+ way eviction I agree, she's safe as houses. Her only danger is in a 2 way eviction, where it will effectively become a positive/negative vote on the other housemates, with a few Rachel fans on top for good measure. She could go tho - if up against Luke or Dale(only one of them tho) then it might well be close.

[kosar19]

Yes mate, I was always worried that Rex would fall foul of being a rich kid, but the best polls that I work with, have had him clear top for 2 to 3 weeks now. I tended not to take too much stock in that, but now have changed my mind, and see that he is now the only viable winner.
His taking down of the horrid little boy last night was a joy to behold (and I had to quickly dive in and take the 14/1 which was still up for him).
My wife is a cockney girl, born and bred, and we have both met the Rex's of this world. Normally hard to like at first glance, but the dark wit and put downs grow on you.
I was always of the opinion that this was Kat's to lose, but the dreadful creature that is Davina McCall (how she ever was given a job on TV, I will never now), made it fairly clear that she is not the one they want.
This will come down to a match between Darnell and Rex (with Rachel being the dark horse)

[kosar19]

Originally Posted by Beanie

On that point, if it's a 3+ way eviction I agree, she's safe as houses. Her only danger is in a 2 way eviction, where it will effectively become a positive/negative vote on the other housemates, with a few Rachel fans on top for good measure. She could go tho - if up against Luke or Dale(only one of them tho) then it might well be close.

The only way the Rebecca's ,Luke's, Nikki Graham's and Charley's of this world can survive an eviction is if it becomes a positive vote.
As long as they keep it a negative vote then Luke will be toast whoever he is up against. I will safely say Rachel will not go against anyone from the Bitch side. Her only danger will be if up against, Rex,Kat or Darnell

[trickrick]

Originally Posted by kosar19

Ok Trick, what price Luke if he is up against Mo.

I've told you already bankrupt me last time

YEah - I guess you could be right..Mo doesnt really potray himself in a light that fires up the emotion, unlike ratty and co.. Not sure it's time for him to go yet though, as we'll get to the point where there will be no conflict or tension in the House, and we'll get to a point (such as BB4 - I think) when Cameron won, where we were left towards the end with a bunch of no-personality who just coasted in to the end..Certainly C4 don't want that..Those 2 new lasses, Lisa, Rachel, Stue...ZZZZZZ..They want the big players in at the end..

Originally Posted by kosar19

On the Outright front, I suggest you should all get on Rex as I am of the strong opinion that he has won this show now (especially on last nights evidence)

Well thats what I like to hear having taken a number of prices on Rex on the Outright from a while ago with odds between 18's to 32's.. A lucrative windfall would definately head my way if he did triumph..

[trickrick]

Dale is pretty much confirming what I have always thought about him...He is a complete cock..

He is pathetic at trying to be the 'man', with his supposed contentious comments, but he really is thick git and it shows.. He is transparent as hell, and although he knows he wants to come out fighting to show that he isnt going to just 'coast' to the final, in all reality he knows he is now in a vulnerable place along with ratboy..However he appears to be digging his own grave with his pseudo hardman stance of a sudden...

Hang on Dale - weren't you meant to be a complete twat from the beginning according to your pre-house entrance tape.. ?! er

My heart is probably ruling my gambling head (happily supported by copious amounts of consumed wine), but..to quote King Kev.."I'd love it if Dale got evicted..Love it !!"

Dale to be the 7th evictee - 6 pt stake @ 4.6 (Betfair)

[kosar19]

Trick, your not talking with your dick out, are you.

The funniest thing to come out of Bex leaving, is that both Dale and Stu who wanted to have a taste of an eviction contest, and not coast to the final, have suddenly stopped talking in that fashion, as they realised that it might not be such a sure thing after all

[trickrick]

Originally Posted by kosar19

Trick, your not talking with your dick out, are you.

No better way to talk..

Shit..Dale drifts out to 5's...