SPL - 18/19th August

[pydoom]

Well dundee utd are at home so it must be a HT Score: 0-0 bet for me (2.75 Paddy Power). 12 of 19 home games last season were scoreless at the half, including both games against Hibs, and the same happened in their first game of this season.

Of course no trends last forever, but until this one has been well and truly broken I will carry on banking the profits.

[WeegieDave]

Originally Posted by crowie

The 9.00 ain't for Gretna to score mate, its for them to win.

Can see where you have picked it up from

Ah, well thats different then.

Combination of a long shift (may have gathered from $olvents thread ) and just crap reading.

2.47 not to score? Mmmmm........................

[Beanie]

Just about fell off my chair there(and not because Im drunk!) at the 9.00 on Gretna to score...got me excited!

Knew I'd missed out a game there...St M v ICT...was considering St Mirren until I saw the H2H...admittedly it was a better ICT team in recent seasons(ie plus Dargo etc) but still, too many away wins to make me go too close to this one.

That reminds me(for no apparent reason) - I think I'm off to Paris in a few weeks for the Scotland game Crowie - not sure if I'll get tickets for the game but me and a few mates gonna head over anyway just for the banter...99% sure you are going...you going Weegie? Will do a thread in Talk Sports when I book it up.

Anyway, bets for this weekend:

2pts Rangers -1.5 @ 1.89 with Canbet
3pts Hearts -1.25 @ 1.96 with Pinnacle

Saw you flag that stat up elsewhere pydoom...interesting one...will have a peek out for it.

And you make good points eddy...I like these threads a lot better than when we all agree

Unlike crowie I would actually say I'm backing Hearts here rather than opposing Gretna...bookies have as much info as we do at their fingertips and quite often(but not always) our edge is in anticipating something more than anything else, and as I've said I anticipate a Hearts performance where a lot of the bits and bobs they've shown recently(decent midfield cohesion/good defensive organisation/key players returning) come together against weaker opposition, and a decent win looks in order.

Whether or not that happens is what we're debating I guess, and as with a lot of betting if Hearts lose 1-0 or win 5-0 we might still not have much more of an idea as to which bet was the real value, but nonetheless its good to have a contrasting view to make us all sit back and give our respective thoughts another run through.

[fasteddy]

Lovely stuff , Gents... very interesting.

Sorry about getting the season's wrong on the Cup , Crowie...and yes they have changed a bit more than I thought...I really should spend more time researching my statements!!

However, (there's always a 'however ' with me) PURELY on the results gained thus far ..it is more than reasonable to afford both sides an equal measure of improvement as would befit their personnel's capabilities ....Yes?

......which would mean that Gretna may have learnt enough to be taken off the SPL 'suicide watch' , while Hearts will no longer leave their fans wanting to commit suicide....Yes?

As far as Cup games being 'one offs', I don't adhere to that belief, as ALL games are in essence 'one offs'. THIS is the only game that matters...the one being played TODAY....that's how it should be viewed by all teams, and indeed that's the regular quote from managers.

I think Gretna could play Hearts 10 times in a row and win at least 2 and draw at least 2..at the WORST...because that's how I see the SPL level at this time between those outside of the Old Firm, but more than likely those good reults would be achieved at the start of the games played, with Hearts proving the stronger at the middle to end.

Much like the EPL so far...there literally are NO EASY games anymore, so when odds such as 15/2 or 8/1 are floated about it stands out like a beacon.
Each week I look first of all for the biggest odds on offer and then work back from there. Falkirk are on offer at the biggest odds , but Rangers look too good all over the park.
Not so Hearts.

On the opening day we had only 1 HOME win even though 4 were priced as Favs
Last week it was a different story with 4/5 winning as HOME favs.

I'm really excited by this season both EPL and SPL...it strikes me as one which could be very unpredictable and therefore full of value opps for 'big odds lovers' like me. I do seek value , not just a stab at a big winner, and that's why Gretna gets my vote for outrights @ 8.50/ 9.00 and 'win/draw' @ 2.80 (paddypower, that one).

At least I know there is one result we will all be glued to today, eh lads?!!!!

Good luck. and GOODNIGHT!

[Beanie]

I(and without wanting to speak for Crowie I know he is too) am one that bets based on perceived value too eddy, it's just tomorrow I see it on Hearts. A lot of punters(and I'm not including you in this btw) see these big odds as the value bets but of course a 1.10 shot can have just as much value as a 20/1 shot. I've not seen many punters on this SPL thread/TDP as a whole that like to bet based on simply getting themselves a winner.

Anyway, enough chatter on this one...I'll sign off by saying why not lay Hearts @ 1.41ish on Betfair rather than take that 2.80 on the win/draw at PP. Good luck mate

[pydoom]

I really am becoming a fan of the way dundee utd play - well the first half anyway

[fasteddy]

Quite a day of results!...Rangers certainly stepped up, or did Falkirk just implode?

One of my best returns ever on a single game: Gretna on 2 handicaps ,plus to score and also laid Hearts ( as suggested..cheers for that Beanie)

I'm away to read up on the reports...see what REALLY happened!

[Beanie]

Consider my imaginary hat tipped in your direction eddy - sounds like yet more of the same from Hearts - decent possession and ok build up work, but once again toothless up front. Gretna seem to have been a bit more organised too.

7-2 Rangers...nice spot there crowie.

And 1-0 Aberdeen...thank fook I didnt get back in time to back Celtic!

[WeegieDave]

For anyone that wants to get a wee insight into how the SPL teams play, you can watch all the highlights here;

BBC Scotland - SportScene

This weekends matches aren't up yet, maybe give it til later tonight or on monday. The same link should work each week so you can catch all the matches throughout the year.

[MickeyPaul]

Super stuff chaps. Excellent going eddy and pydoom too. And thanks for the link, Dave.

[crowie]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Consider my imaginary hat tipped in your direction eddy - sounds like yet more of the same from Hearts - decent possession and ok build up work, but once again toothless up front. Gretna seem to have been a bit more organised too.

Yep, if I had a hat on it would be tipped as well Eddy. Youv'e got a better read on those two, Hearts especially, than I have at present.

[crowie]

Originally Posted by Beanie

7-2 Rangers...nice spot there crowie.

And 1-0 Aberdeen...thank fook I didnt get back in time to back Celtic!

This boy Cousin will be a player for Rangers. Haven't seen the goals from this weekend yet but going on his 15 min cameo against Red Star he looks big, physical, pacey and with a hell of a shot. Kris Boyd might need to buck up his ideas to get a regular starting place back.

And Beanie, no need to worry about the Celts, we only play in the 2nd half nowadays

[Parahandy]

Not been around the footy threads for a long time but was doing a bit of browsing tonight and I've just read this one with more than a passing interest. The debates between Crowie, Beanie and fasteddy were great. Eddy's take on Hearts v Gretna was excellent, with the other two providing top quality stuff as usual. I'm tempted to get involved again.

Since there's nothing really to write about yet on next week's card, I'll blow away some of the cobwebs with a few comments on the SPL as I see it developing this season.

I would normally wait until the first quater of the season is over before making any predictions but already I've witnessed enough to form some opinions.

First question who will win the race w/o the Old Firm? Hearts and Aberdeen are the market leaders but I'd lay Hearts every week as long as the bookies continue to overrate them. For a long time the club's woes were headline news but not now, though that doesn't mean they're in any less of a mess. Reading Stevie Frail talking about communication problems between the dug out where he was flying solo yesterday and his "bosses" in the stand via an interpreter is laughable unless you're a Hearts fan. With Mad Vlad seldom at Tynecastle but still no doubt picking the team for some far off land, there's no chance of the Jambos finishing 3rd. No team spirit and crucially not looking like scoring many goals.

Surprised there's not been much more of a revolt before now, though what can the fans do other than stay away in large numbers? Might yet come to that this season if the team stay in the bottom half of the league which looks a distinct possibility.

I don't rate Aberdeen as being any better than Hibs, Killie, Dundee Utd or even Falkirk, so taking a leaf out of fasteddy's book, the punters could do worse than laying Hearts and Aberdeen or having an interest on some of the others mentioned at big odds.

Gretna are favourites for the drop and its hard to see them staying up with the very mediocre squad they have. They've earned the right to play in the SPL but in every other way they look out of their depth. They have a very small support and playing 100 miles away from home will see it diminsh further. I reckon Milestone knows he has lived the SPL dream and realises it would be financial madness to push the boat out any further, given the size of his club.

The other most likely relegation candidates Inverness CT, St Mirren and Motherwell all have several personnel changes from last season but are seasoned campaigners. Last year the relegation battle went all the way to the last day with Motherwell and St Mirren involved but this is unusual in the SPL and unless Gretna get some points on the board soon I'd expect them to be pretty much tailed off by the turn of the year.

Who will win it? Who cares say plenty of people on here. At this stage the only thing that seems certain is the race between the OF will go a very long way this time. Rangers could only go one way under Smith but I'd forget the latter part of last season as they were chasing a ghost in the shape of Celtic who were out of sight and cruising. Winning the last two OF games did them no harm but this is crunch time approaching now. So far they've not been tested, playing ICT, St Mirren and Falkirk but you can only beat what is in front of you and they've done that easily. How they fare against Red Star next week could make or break their season. I'd say this tie is far from over and at around 2/5 to qualify Rangers look a bit short. Cuellar and Cousin look good signings.

Celtic haven't been impressive so far but with the first OF match not until October have time to find better form. Given their home record in the CL they should get past Spartak Moscow and that will get the bandwagon rolling if they do it. So far I feel they have missed Lennon protecting the back four and central defence has looked vulnerable as a result. McGeady is creative but unlike Naka, gives the ball away far too often which could be costly in Europe and in OF matches.

Players like Brown and Donati are very talented and there is a lot more to come from them. Once the midfield settles down, Celtic will benefit from the energy and drive of these players and that of Hartley and Naka too, something that Lennon lacked for all his qualities.

Ah well, back in harness.

[MickeyPaul]

Good to see you again, Para. Great post and thank you.

[kompressaur]

good to see you Parahandy and Eddy too. Great thread too chaps. You fuel the old fires.