The Premiership: 1-3rd Dec

[kompressaur]

Barclays Premier League
01 Dec 12:45 Chelsea v West Ham 1.25 5.50 13.00
01 Dec 15:00 Blackburn v Newcastle 1.90 3.40 4.20
01 Dec 15:00 Portsmouth v Everton 2.20 3.25 3.40
01 Dec 15:00 Reading v Middlesbrough 2.00 3.30 4.00
01 Dec 15:00 Sunderland v Derby 1.66 3.60 5.50
01 Dec 15:00 Wigan v Man City 3.00 3.25 2.40
01 Dec 17:15 Aston Villa v Arsenal 4.00 3.30 2.00
02 Dec 15:00 Liverpool v Bolton 1.28 5.00 13.00
02 Dec 16:00 Tottenham v Birmingham 1.44 4.20 8.00
03 Dec 20:00 Man Utd v Fulham 1.20 6.00 17.00

Odds Bet365

[slick]

Early thoughts point to Blackburn and Reading against two pretty average sides respectively, Reading are not fairing much better but at least they are trying and have put in some pretty solid performances recently allthough getting beat and could put the final nail in Southgates coffin here.
Pompey v Everton also has the makings of another 0-0 i'd say.

[Wet_Sail]

Blackburn-Newcastle is an interesting game.

I watched Rovers limp to a point at Fulham the other day and now they've been thumped at home by Villa tonight. Could this be the infamous Intertoto curse which usually strikes participating teams around this time of year? Whatever the reason, they're certainly going off the boil big style.

Not that you could make a convincing case for Newcastle to take advantage, right enough. But Allardyce is already under so much pressure that he has to start delivering results. They can't go on defending as badly as they have - and going forward they do have quality players who would trouble most teams. There's definitely a performance in them, just a matter of catching it. I'd say at 11/4 (and given Blackburn's downturn in form), it's worth a look.

[slick]

Just thinking the same Wet Sail as Blackburns dip has been quite alarming considering the form they have been in, Still Newcastle at the moment are fairing no better and I still fancy Blackburn to win but I don't think i'll be doing so @ odds on now.

[fasteddy]

I see Everton +0.25 @ 2.02 as the real attractive bet this week, while Reading look solid enough since they have less of an injury list.

Pompey have been better on the road in their displays this season,(ranked 2nd, while at Home they are 11th, still unbeaten), while the Toffee's showed how good they feel at the moment with the 7-1 mauling of Sunderland. Key negative about Everton is their failure to win any games vs any top half sides, but unbeaten in the last 4 , with a 1-1 at Stamford Bridge?...could be time to break that trend.
Portsmouth have played out 0-0's vs West Ham and Man City the last 2 at Fratton Park.

Reading have Convey , Hunt, Harper, Kitson and Doyle all back for selection and they present an excellent attacking force to face a slippery-slope-riding Boro.

Blackburn are 0-2-2 for Nov , in 3 of those failing to score, plus have a lot to atone for after their 4-0 beat by Villa, that was so unlike them, but you do feel as though the signs have been there the previous games. Rovers have been good to me in handicap bets and outright betting, but now is a time to be taking them on at these odds when facing clubs that can score and Newcastle have the players to do just that..even though it's not been happening the last few games! However, @ 2.34 + 0.25 Newcastle are more appealing ,as there is huge potential for an upward curve in their recent play, while Blackburn appear to be hitting something of a downturn.

West Ham are possibles @ 1.96 + 1.5 vs Chelsea....something about Chelsea just now that has me feeling they're vulnerable to big starts from certain types of teams, and if the Hammers can net once then it'll need 2 in reply to beat this....they could do it, but I have a hunch they wont.

Elsewhere...Man City appeal, while Villa @ 1.92 +0.50 have to be seriously considered in the form they are vs Arsenal. Fabregas is doubtful, plus they will need to be back to their controlled passing-selves unlike the shit that was in Seville! Gunners look vulnerable....only 9 scored 'away' while 4 conceded....that's not dominating enough at this time vs a side on a roll..as Villa are.

Sunday's games ..I've not given it thought yet, but this week is one for AH's bets and taking it on!

[junior98]

Originally Posted by fasteddy

I see Everton +0.25 @ 2.02 as the real attractive bet this week, while Reading look solid enough since they have less of an injury list.

Pompey have been better on the road in their displays this season,(ranked 2nd, while at Home they are 11th, still unbeaten), while the Toffee's showed how good they feel at the moment with the 7-1 mauling of Sunderland. Key negative about Everton is their failure to win any games vs any top half sides, but unbeaten in the last 4 , with a 1-1 at Stamford Bridge?...could be time to break that trend.
Portsmouth have played out 0-0's vs West Ham and Man City the last 2 at Fratton Park.

Reading have Convey , Hunt, Harper, Kitson and Doyle all back for selection and they present an excellent attacking force to face a slippery-slope-riding Boro.

Blackburn are 0-2-2 for Nov , in 3 of those failing to score, plus have a lot to atone for after their 4-0 beat by Villa, that was so unlike them, but you do feel as though the signs have been there the previous games. Rovers have been good to me in handicap bets and outright betting, but now is a time to be taking them on at these odds when facing clubs that can score and Newcastle have the players to do just that..even though it's not been happening the last few games! However, @ 2.34 + 0.25 Newcastle are more appealing ,as there is huge potential for an upward curve in their recent play, while Blackburn appear to be hitting something of a downturn.

West Ham are possibles @ 1.96 + 1.5 vs Chelsea....something about Chelsea just now that has me feeling they're vulnerable to big starts from certain types of teams, and if the Hammers can net once then it'll need 2 in reply to beat this....they could do it, but I have a hunch they wont.

Elsewhere...Man City appeal, while Villa @ 1.92 +0.50 have to be seriously considered in the form they are vs Arsenal. Fabregas is doubtful, plus they will need to be back to their controlled passing-selves unlike the shit that was in Seville! Gunners look vulnerable....only 9 scored 'away' while 4 conceded....that's not dominating enough at this time vs a side on a roll..as Villa are.

Sunday's games ..I've not given it thought yet, but this week is one for AH's bets and taking it on!

fully agree with Everton +0.25 no worry injuries and the other side got a little problem with police that could be effectly to the whole team

[Winrew]

Sunderland so far for me , not the best price mind , but after last weeks shocker at Everton you would expect a better all round performance.
Best price for Sunderland is now 4/6 with Paddypower and Bet365.

Villa at home to the Gunners , best price for Villa is 3/1 , anyone fancy that ?
Not having a bad season at the moment , okay Arsenal are top dogs but away to Villa , might be a struggle , or am i wrong ?

[junior98]

Portsmouth v Everton


Following their 7-1 drubbing of Sunderland at Goodison Park last weekend, Everton face a somewhat tougher task on Saturday when they travel to Fratton Park to take on Portsmouth.
Pompey are unbeaten at home in the league this season and have not lost in their last 10 games at Fratton Park in all competitions.
David Moyes’ side, having inflicted severe goal damage on The Black Cats in their last game, have only kept one clean sheet in their last 12 Premier League games away from home, so this encounter on the South Coast promises to be an intriguing affair.
Of course the home side will be keen to place the focus back on to matters on the pitch after a tumultuous week for boss Harry Redknapp, but the signs are mixed for both sides heading into the game.
The Toffees have won six of the eight Premier League games they and Pompey have contested, and the home side are unbeaten in nine league games having kept seven clean sheets in those games – their longest run since returning to the top flight.
Aiyegbeni Yakubu has scored four goals in his last four league games for Everton and will be hoping to repeat the feat against his former club, while Tim Cahill is on fire for The Toffees too having struck five times in seven games this season.
David James will be hoping to maintain his record as the top save-maker in the league so far, having foiled strikers on 58 occasions to date.
Alan Stubbs is Moyes’ only absentee through injury, and the Scot will otherwise have a full-strength squad to choose from.

Prediction: 1-2

PhysioRoom.com English Premier League Injury Table

[JoseRules]

Villa are playing brilliantly now and if anyone can take advantage of any shakiness in the Arsenal armour they could be the ones to do it. I don't think that Blackburn were that bad against Villa, but when they went down to ten men they were finished. I think they will bounce back against an awful Newcastle team. And the draw with Fulham was not bad either, considering Dunn was suspended, Santa Cruz was rested after returning from the international, Derbyshire was recovering from injury, and McCarthy limped off after five minutes. I thought they fought back well.
Don't even think about backing West Ham. They used to be Chelseas bogey team around five years ago, now Chelsea are EVERYONES bogey team.
Portsmouth have won me fortunes over the last month and they are always a good price. Iwill follow them until i lose and i don't think Everton are as good away from home. I'll be on Pompey big time.
Sunderland should make Roy Keanes day with a good win. They play better at home and Derby are worse than rubbish.
Man City are an excellent price to win at Wigan, but they are another team that don't play so well away, but at that price i would take a chance.
Man Utd v Fulham is a no-contest, but Birmingham may be worth backing with a plus handicap against Spurs. I can see it being another draw.
Reading are twice as good at home than on the road so 2.00 to beat BottomsBorough is looking good for me.

[fasteddy]

Chelsea vs West Ham ( 12:45 kick off)

At first glance it seems like another Chelsea win and the unbeaten Stamford run continues. And maybe it is. But, on the Asian handicaps you can get West Ham + 1.5 @ 1.95 bet365. Just under double your cash that Chelsea don't win by 2 clear goals at Home : a feat that they have managed just ONCE all season. So this bet would have netted us full returns in 5 out of 6 games. Key man, Essien, is out suspended as well, so a lot of their midfield momentum will be missing. West Ham have managed 4 clean sheets in their 6 'away' games, which augurs well for this trip. they had a run of 3 straight defeats, of which 2 were on the road, but since then they are unbeaten: 2-3-0. Dean Ashton is back fit, and he's always a big scoring threat, plus he has no respect for the reputations of those he faces. The Hammers have enjoyed their recent fixture list against mainly lower half sides, so this is a real test, but one I think they will pass.

West Ham +1.5 @ 1.95 bet365

Blackburn vs Newcastle

Mark Hughes must be wondering what has happened to his once solid, dependable squad. After a run of 4 wins, they had a respectable draw vs Liverpool, lost 2-0 vs Man Utd, drew 2-2 Fulham and lost 4-0 vs Villa. Now, it's not the end of the world, but the manner in which they have repeatedly failed to convert chances, indeed squandered them, is the worry. Three games in the last 4 have been without scoring, and we all know what happens when that starts to creep in....it easily becomes a habit. ( Ryan Nelsen is suspended)

Newcastle find themselves under the usual pressure for underperforming. Sam Allardyce must be getting a bit hot under that large collar of his, and the prospect of a visit, to what may be a less than perfect Blackburn , could be a right result for him. James Milner is the only squad player to have scored in the last 4 games, with 2 o.g's providing the other two, so no guesses where they need to start producing, aside from that still leaky defence. Injuries aside, Obafemi Martins , Viduka, Smith and Barton! etc..have to step up and deliver now: no excuses. They have 2 games this week, and unless they take at least 4 points from them I'd say Allardyce and the players will be kept very warm over Xmas by the fans fury.

Newcastle +0.50 @ 2.00 betchronicle & O.Martins 'score anytime' @ 4.00 Hills

Portsmouth vs Everton

Pompey will want a good result to take the attention away from the 'Harry' factor , as well as maintain their progress. Fratton Park has not seen their best performances with only 38% of their points being taken there, however, they are still unbeaten at Home, and that makes them 1 of only 5 that still are. Pompey are 1-0-3 vs Everton at Fratton Park, so the Toffee's have more than an edge in terms of form, but with 5 clean sheets in the last 6 games they know the defence is standing strong.
Everton have yet to win against a top 10 side, but this is their best chance yet. In great form, scoring for fun and with a fully fit team, they can offer no excuses if falling short. Could be a close one to call, but I see the visitors as being in the driving seat just now.

Everton 'draw no bet' @ 2.63 boyle sports (top odds) & HT Asian Betting: Everton +0.25 @ 1.70 canbet

Reading vs Middlesbrough

This appears to be a battle between two poor sides , with Reading on a run of 3 straight losses, while Boro are 9 without a win, but it isn't quite that.
Reading played well last week but slipped up in the final minute vs Man City. Hard as that may have been to take, back at the Madjeski Stadium is where they know they can get it right. results haven't gone their way, but at least you can see the efforts are there, and the manager is working it out. The home form ranks them 7th, while Boro are 13th 'away', so with a near fully fit squad Steve Coppell should be looking at 3pts. They have a solid attacking style at home, with Doyle, Kitson, Convey, Hunt and Harper all strong in going for goal. Outlook is bright.
Southgate just has to be thinking it can't go on much longer! When will the axe fall? Boro have no response to the way their playing. There appears to be a lack of new ideas, even. Toothless up front without Mido, and hapless in midfield...bad combination. Sides have been running through their centre with little resistance, so why should Reading find it any different?

Reading @ 2.10 betdirect

Sunderland vs Derby

Big clash between the strugglers. Roy Keane vs Paul Jewell. Got to say I was surprised at Jewell's taking the job. Maybe he is happy to go back down and build again as he did with Wigan, but the reason he left Wigan was to do with his 'health'!...so what is he thinking with Derby?
Sunderland have shown that they have the 'right stuff' in terms of heart and guts, but maybe fall short of the key factor: quality. There have been some great moments and glimpses of what could be, but the consistency is not there.
Derby last beat the Black Cats back in Feb 2001: 9 matches ago. These meetings are rarely goalfests, with 6 out 8 being Overs, and again I se it being tight.
Jewell may think about "get a point, stop the rot", or to go all out and grasp a potential 6pter with both hands. I'd fancy the latter as you feel there is little to lose at this stage. they've still to score a goal 'away'!
Derby are nowhere as bad as the odds on offer suggest, and if they're going to break that goalless run on the road, then this is the time to do it.

Derby + 0.75 @ mansion88

[fasteddy]

and the rest...I'm not getting to grips with the bloggin aspect, but I'm working on it, so in the meantime.... forums it is


Wigan vs Man City

Steve vs Sven?....no contest in that respect. Wigan must have more money than sense to invest so much in what is still an untested manager. His time in the Premiership was mixed at best, dismal at worst. Money has been available to him with most clubs but his signings didn't deliver, or maybe just didn't deliver for him. His consistent lack of 'loyalty' can't make him the strongest candidate to a club that is already in dire straights, can it?
Anyway, he's inherited a side that currently sit in 19th , 3 places below the club he left, Birmingham, have lost 8 in a row, and have failed to score in 6 of the last 7 games. Ironically the only side they did manage to get by was...Birmingham!...Marcus Bent hitting a brace in their 3-2 loss.
What exactly is Steve Bruce going to do? Inspire?! No, it'll be more than likely a 'stop the rot, settle for draw' approach. ( M. Brown is suspended)

Man City became magicians last week when they managed to turn a certain draw into 3pts, with Stephen Ireland's last minute strike. That win kept their Home record perfect: 8-0-0. Terrific stuff. Plus I believe that truly wiped away the memories of Chelsea's 6-0 mauling back on 27th Oct. The ship has been steadied, and all is well, Cap'n!! Well, almost. Their 'away' form is still really poor, and even a slight improvement would help solidify their top 5 status that much longer. Sven will be plotting nothing less than 3 pts, and with the personnel at his disposal it should be a stroll, but life rarely works out that way.

Man City @ 2.40 bet365. & Petrov score anytime @ 4.50 Hills

Aston Villa vs Arsenal

I hope this turns out to be as good a match as it appears on paper. Villa are in tip top form, while Arsenal , bar their midweek loss, have been imperious. A key factor in this match is the contrasting forms of the two sides home/away. Villa are 5-0-2,( the 2 defeats coming against Liverpool and Man Utd), while Arsenal are 3-2-0.
Although unbeaten away from the Emirates it hasn't been done with the same ease as at home. Biggest difference is their lack of goals : 9 away, compared with 20 at home, and SIX of those 9 came in just 2 games. For such a seemingly complete side it always strikes me as strange to see them struggle to convert their chances.
Villa have just completed a hat-trick of aways wins with a very impressive 4-0 defeat of Blackburn Rovers at Ewood Park. It will be of huge importance for O'Neill to maintain the climb up the table, even if by a single point. The best position Villa can theoretically achieve with a win here would be 3rd, so there is a massive incentive on offer. The players look good, and Young, Carew and Agbonlahor have struck form at the right time.
I know that 3 pts is a big ask for them , but Chelsea left with nothing, so the precedent has been set. ( Reo-Coker is suspended)

I'm very very tempted with Arsenal @ 2.13...that could be a steal come final whistle, and I wouldn't put anyone off backing it, but I have decided on the value in HT betting on a Home side in such good form.

HT Asian Betting: Aston Villa +0.25 @ 2.07 betchronicle

Liverpool vs Bolton

Big win last week for the Trotters vs Man Utd, and no surprise that Anelka was the man involved with the winning goal. Such a big player for Bolton, he is truly a talisman if ever there was one. Can they do it again this week with a win over Liverpool? I don't see it, myself, but then I thought Man Utd would win last week, so what do I know?
Gary Megson has overseen an unbeaten run since he took over, with their draw vs Bayern Munich as good a result as the win over Man Utd. Certainly a side with their tails up, and we all know how hard they are to beat when on top of their game. Still, their big handicap is the lack of goals in general. Scoring once and holding on is not a tactic that will last you a season, but until they find another way to do things it'll have to do.
Liverpool looked good midweek, and Harry Kewell in particular was impressive. Three EPL games, three clean sheets?...nice work if you can get it. Bolton will be as physical as they always are, but Liverpool are no slouches either.
Liverpool are yet to lose a league game this season so it would be a massive surprise if Bolton were the ones, and with both Nolan and Hunt suspended for this one I'm sure Megson will be aware of their increased vulnerability to the Red's width and pace. On the plus side for the Trotters...Birmingham and Spurs took a point home, so it's not impossible!
Bolton have now played 9 straight Unders in the league...so here's my jinxy bet....

Under 2.5 @ 2.04 ladbrokes

Tottenham vs Birmingham

Big Eck takes over down at St Andrew's....great name for a ground if you're Scottish. Good omens? Maybe, just maybe.
Spurs came back to win midweek in UEFA, showing spirit that was too often lacking in previous encounters this season. Goals are still easy enough to produce, but so is conceding, evidently.
The hosts have by far the better side, and will most likely score again in this game, but Birmingham under a stronger, smarter, manager could prove to be a prickly customer. My guess is that McLeish will set out to stop Spurs playing, rather than try to match them....that would be mental. Tight, controlled passing, limiting the length/width of the field, focus on possession, chasing every ball, hassling the Spurs players, strong tackles..etc, etc....a point away from home for Birmingham in their current situation is vital, and he proved his worth and ability in achieving this with his time managing Scotland.
Spurs need to start making White Hart Lane their own 'points factory'. Home form will get them back up the table, and whatever they take on their travels is a bonus. The squad look good, strikers scoring goals, midfield chipping in as well. But , defensively they have a long way to go so there will always be chances for opponents in the meantime.

Birmingham + 1.5 @ 1.78 188Bet

Man Utd vs Fulham

Ferguson will want a positive response to last week's defeat by Bolton. Regardless of whether he should've rested Ronaldo or not, it was simply a below standard display. Facing a Fulham side that can't stop conceding is the best tonic you can get.
Good result midweek with Ronaldo scoring the winner and Man Utd taking top spot in their group. Always nice to get the winning feeling back in the bones and feel ready to put things to right in the league as well. Got to fancy Man Utd to control the Cottagers as they are still winless 'away' , plus they have their own problems to sort out, so whatever backlash Man Utd have in them to dish out, you can be sure with Fulham that goalmouth action will be the order of the day.
Not a lot to say about Fulham, really. They make a lot of chances in their matches, sometimes they take them, sometimes they don't. Hard to point at any real structure in their play, or key player overall making them easy to rattle when you apply the pressure. Man utd are experts at applying pressure.
Will Fulham be another Bolton? Can't see it.

Over 2.5 @ 1.99 pinnacle

[martini]

i take portsmouth only away!( ht2 -et2)but at home?? i don´t know....Everton makes 7 Goals! it is very dangerous too play on Portsmouth...

[Martens]

villa was great against chelsea,and crap against man utd

which face will show now?

i still beleive that arsenal is not mature team, i expect them in big troubles when meet the giants in coming champions league phases, i fancy villa not to lose,and i hope to see mostly physical game


newcastle was terrible las week, something never to see again, blackburn good probabilities imo

chelsea banker for me

[arromyen]

I tend to think in opposite way against the majority here regarding Portsmouth-Everton match.

People seems to getting carried away about news that Redknapp being arrested and surely it could cause an unrest situation within a club but we don't know that yet. Putting that aside we will have a team which is has been on fire most of the season thus far plus the fact that they haven't dropped any point on their ground and already met teams that belong to top of the table, ManU, Liverpool, Mancity to named some. To add more they missed 2 decisive penalties from those matches and just played Mancity off the park in their latest home match. They let only 1 goal in from last 6 matches, hitting 10 goals. Tomorrow they will have most of their players to pick from including Kanu who returns from thigh injury.

Everton are no pushover, no doubt about that, but, after the demolition of Sunderland(7-1) it makes people suddenly thinking they are the best football team alongside ManU & Arse? We know how poor Sunderland is these day and their away form is still far from being convinced.

I won't put anyone off backing away team but for me this is too tricky to be involved with. It could go either way really. Any final result wouldn't surprise me. Good luck with your betting whatever which side you will back.

[ToonmanUK]

Thought I'd pass this on, the link takes you to a guys site who has produced what I consider to be the best footy spreadsheets anywhere, you need to put scores from August onwards to get the data, his strike rate for prem league is great, (the result predictor sheet) hope its ok to post here...
Michael Wray's Free Football Spreadsheets