English Premiership 12 March

[Cinny]

English Premiership 12 March
12 Mar 19:45 Aston Villa v Middlesbrough 1.61 3.75 6.00
12 Mar 19:45 Portsmouth v Birmingham 1.83 3.50 4.50
12 Mar 20:00 Chelsea v Derby 1.10 9.00 26.00

Odds Bet365

[slick]

First thoughts are Birmingham could well spring a surprise here as Pompey are now in the FA cup semi's and looking at league positions it looks like there easiest route to a UEFA cup spot as its looking more and more unlikely they will finish 5th in the Premiership which will be the last qualifying place now Man U are out of the Cup.
Birmingham will realise this and try to get the most out of this match as they are desperate for points at the moment and one of the form sides in that relegation bunch and have done quite well on the rd under Mcleash, the least i can see them getting here is a draw if not the win.

Villa should have little trouble pushing aside a dismal Boro side who will have had the wind taken out of their sails by getting beat by Cardiff at the weekend, Villa are on fire at the moment form wise and will be looking at this as a must win game to keep in contention for a Euro spot and create a bit of space between them and the Chasing pack.
Suppose there is a chance of Middlesborough trying to bounce bag after such a result and trying to nick a point to ease their relegation fears but Villa should be too strong for them.
Villa win

As for Chelsea v Derby then as the odds suggest it should be a pretty straight forward win with a hatful of goals for the blues but i won't be touching them at those odds after Saturdays result.

[fasteddy]

Aston Villa vs Middlesbrough

I had this match tagged as a big bet a few weeks ago and nothing has changed my mind about that. In fact the FA Cup 'crapfest' by Southgate's men has only increased my faith in a Villa win.
With 6th spot looking increasingly likely as their best finish, Villa need to get 3pts against the poorer sides such as Boro. Certainly the 8pt gap that now exists between them and 5th placed contenders Everton/Liverpool, isn't going to get any easier the way those two have been playing.

The Villans have fresher legs and positive momentum build up over the last few weeks, (lost once in 2008) while Boro must surely all be on Prozac by now....they're having to big up every match to get a result, and over a season that really takes it out of you. To me what we will see from here on in will be a fatigued team with little energy for the 'fight'....but at least here they're facing a side that hasn't kept a clean sheet since the end of Nov 07, so windows of opportunity are open, just not by much.M.Harewood to score @ 3.50 Hui

Boro are 2-3-3 for 2008, and it may not look as bad I make out, but the performances in there have been poor...a lot of those results have come from their opponents underperforming as well. The new big money signing, Alves, has yet to score , making it seem as though Southgate can't get it right on the striker front even with the chequebook at his disposal yet again. When will it end?

Against low scoring sides Boro always have a shout but Villa are machines in that department, so sneaking a 1-0 at Villa Park just isn't an option. Boro's GFA 0.87 in 2008 won't do them any good in this match-up, not when compared to Villa's 2.00.....therefore , should be a another win for the hosts and another debate for the Teesiders.

Villa -1 @ 2.16 188Bet / M .Harewood to score @ 3.50 Hills / Penalty awarded @ 3.60 centrebet


Portsmouth vs Birmingham

With Pompey netting a deserved winner in their FA Cup 1/4 final with Man Utd , there should be no shortage of momentum for Harry to build his pep talk around. Fratton Park will be out on force to celebrate their famous victory , but at the same time the expectations remain about a higher league finish , and more consistency in front of goal. The arrival of Defoe has made an immediate impact with 3 goals in 4 games, plus his style of play has allowed Portsmouth to change their shape more, bringing others into the mix more often, with the midfield having more say in the attacking build ups. Certainly there is better movement off the ball with Portsmouth, and with each game they getting more confident with how to play it. Facing a Birmingham side on a high should make for a good game. Both sides have a strong defensive ethic, plus strikers in form...the fact that their respective defences haven't really stood up all the time only adds to the buzz about this tie.

Alex McLeish will want a step up from the last match, showing that his players can make the grade in the EPL. One win does not a season make...but it was a terrific win all the same. Forssell is a quality striker, and alongside Mc Fadden he could well strike up a good partnership. The Finn lives in the box, while the Scot's strengths lie in his build up play, bringing players into the move while also creating space around him for options. There's no way Birmingham should go down, but nothing is guaranteed, so a win here for the Blues would be enormous.

This will all be about who scores first, as Pompey are 10-0-0 when they do, while Birmingham are 1-3-12 when they don't. Portsmouth are clear favs on form, and rightly so, but Birmingham have been showing glimpses since McLeish tool over, glimpses of hitting a run of form, and last week's 4-1 defeat of Spurs is not a bad sign of it happening soon!

Birmingham @ 5.00 Coral / To score : Forssell @ 4.50 & Larrson @ 9.50 paddypower / Birmingham +0.50 @ 2.10 Pinnacle


Chelsea vs Derby

It was on the cards that a big loss was coming and so it did in fine fashion. Chelsea have been 'scraping form' for a while, but with the odd excellent display thrown in to silence the detractors now and again. So many big names in a side and yet no desire on show...mmmmm, am I surprised?. NO. Of course not. Facing Barnsley wouldn't mean anything to a lot of these guys, which is why you need a manager who can make it mean something. Grant doesn't strike me as someone who can be termed 'inspirational' , unless you want to be inspired to kill yourself. Chelsea look like a side that has been motivating itself thru the CL and EPL ties, players doing the job of the manager, but come a low level task such as Barnsley and the incentive was gone. This should be a great opportunity to knock in a few goals, get the winning buzz again to wipe out the sound of Barnsley's fans celebrating, but in many ways it's now also a lose-lose situation, because anything less than 5-0/6-0 will be seen as a poor result, AND you know that Derby will be all out for this game....nothing to lose , catching them on the rebound from a bad result? Could happen. Unlikely, but just could happen.

Derby are Championship bound but can take some Pride with them by fighting all the way. I think Jewell saw the writing on the wall when he signed up, but maybe he sees himself as a top Championship manager and is very happy there, glad to get the plaudits when his sides get promoted, but not so happy when vying for continuing EPL status.
The arrival of experience and 'skill' hasn't been productive in the way hoped, and the goals drought has continued unabated. With a season GFA 0.47 there's nowhere to go but down, so a run out against Chelsea with nothing but 'enjoy yourselves' to focus on may bring about a more relaxed performance.
Derby to score?......2.75...not bad , but not for me. No. I think a small stakes bet on some of the massive 33's on a Rams win will keep me happy...why not...that's a ridiculous price , even for Derby. Jewell's side have managed to keep it 0-0 at HT in 7 of the last 8 games, and again this is an area to focus on for value.

Chelsea should walk all over Derby...but that was said about Barnsley too , so who am I to disagree....sweet dreams are made of this....da da da da....(The Tourists..of course)

Derby @ 33.0 betchronicle / HT Betting: Derby +0.75 @ 2.25 canbet / HT Result: Derby @ 19.00 bet365

heheheehhe derby to win better go for a beer and not wate your money big looooooool

Originally Posted by Unregistered

heheheehhe derby to win better go for a beer and not waste your money big looooooool

ht x i riky as if chelea will go all out derby will get 3 at ht

Originally Posted by Unregistered

ht x i risky as if chelea will go all out derby will get 3 at ht

[santapunter]

No value with chelsea here against Derby.

Defoe is back for Porstmouth having being cuptied at the weekend and pompey seem to be doing very well against bottom half teams - and as for Brums away record....

I can see villa doing Boro easily enough.

[booboo]

Fasteddy,

Totally agreed with you on your first 2 picks and I think there is a high % of winning those bets. I still fancy Chelsea to beat Derby by a couple of goals...as goal difference may play a part during the closing season...and for Chelsea to play a team like Derby, its going to be cricket scoreline. With only 5 goals for and 33 against...and they have lost by more than 3 goals to the top 4 teams.. MU 4-1, Pool 6-0, Arsenal 5-0...no chance for Derby to grab anything here..yes I know Chelsea lost to barnsley over the weekend but that is a CUP game..this is back to basics mate.

I predict a 5-0 Victory for Chelsea. HT 3-0 FT 5-0. Going for HT/FT Chelsea and will follow your pick on Villa and Birmingham.

Good luck.

[fasteddy]

hey booboo....'smarter than the average bear'....Yes, you're totally right, mate..a Derby win is pretty nigh impossible but I couldn't resist those prices as I feel that there is never a situation in the EPL where that price should be offered.

I think the 'lay' of Chelsea is the best option and hope for Derby to put in another solid defence for the opening 45...something they've mastered very well the last few weeks...but believe me I'll be as shocked as the rest of the UK if anything other than a big Chelsea win isn't on the cards.......I Have A Dream!!