4th/5th April Welsh Premier League and Welsh Cup

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friday's and saturday's league odds from sportingbet
Cefn Druids v Caernarfon 1.91 3.40 3.25
Port Talbot v Carmarthen 2.20 3.25 2.75
Welshpool v Newtown 1.728 3.40 4.00
Aberystwyth v Neath 2.25 3.40 2.60
Caersws v Llangefni 2.30 3.25 2.60
Llanelli v Airbus 1.223 5.00 9.00
Porthmadog v Connah's Quay 2.40 3.40 2.40
TNS v Haverfordwest 1.334 4.334 7.00

Welsh cup semi final odds from bet365
Bangor City v Newport YMCA 1.36 4.33 7.00

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the league table , should be two teams to be relegated but only one club in the South Wales tier have passed the ground criteria ...they are presently 4th and they need to be 1st or 2nd to gain promotion , bottom 3 are hoping that only one club is relegated.
These are the number of games left ,Llanelli have 4,TNS have 5 ,Rhyl have 4
Caernarfon have 4, Caersws have 3 ,Llangefni have 4 ,Porthmadog have 3

This weekend I'm only interested in clubs at the top or at the bottom

Llanelli 76
T.N.S. 66
Rhyl 63
Carmarthen Town 53
Bangor City 51
Port Talbot Town 50
Neath Athletic 49
Aberystwyth Town 45
Haverfordwest County 44
Welshpool Town 43
Airbus UK Broughton 36
Newtown AFC 33
NEWI Cefn Druids 32
Connah's Quay Nomads 30
Caernarfon 27
Caersws 24
Llangefni 23
Porthmadog 22

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I'll start with the two clubs at the top , both home wins , nothing surprising about that

Llanelli v Airbus
Llanelli have only lost twice this season , last time was in November , they have won their last 5 league matches and they had an excellent 5-2 win against Rhyl in the Welsh Cup last Sunday. At home they are scoring machine here are the results from their last 6 home games
Llanelli v Haverfordwest 4:2
Llanelli v T.N.S. 4:0
Llanelli v Caernarfon 5:1
Llanelli v Neath 3:3
Llanelli v Llangefni 5:0
Llanelli v Carmarthen 4:1

Airbus away record is W3 D5 L7 , those away wins were against Caernarfon , Llangefni and Caersws , 3 from the bottom 4 .
I've seen these two recently , the Airbus draw 2-2 at Porthmadog first week in March , three weeks later Llanelli won 4-2 at Porthmadog .
Llanelli were very impressive and eased off at half time , Airbus struggled but had a decent striker.
I'll be backing Llanelli ht/ft here


TNS v Haverfordwest
TNS have faltered since mid January with two defeats away , two draws away their first home defeat at home , their other home games have been easy wins at home to bottom clubs Caernarfon 4-1 ,Llangefni 7-1 and Porthmadog 4-1.
Haverfordwest [9th] are inconsistant away and have nothing to play for . I would expect a win for the home side but not risking my money at those odds

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The re-arranged Welsh Cup Semi from last week at the neutral Newtown ground

Bangor City v Newport YMCA 1.36 4.33 7.00

Bangor are fifth in the Welsh Premier League whilst Newtown YMCA are 7th in Welsh League Div 1.
This is Bangor's record W14 D9 L8
This is Newport YMCA record W14 D4 L8
With Llanelli winning the other semi final and leading the WPL , getting to the final would possibly qualify the the finalist in the UEFA cup.
This is a very big incentive . Bangor have played in europe and will want to do it again , but I suppose the same goes for Newport YMCA.
Newport YMCA have had the luck with home fixtures since the first round which has helped them in their progress . They won in the 3rd round in extra time against Maesteg , 4th round saw them go to penalties against Llangefni and in the quarters they recovered from being 2-0 down with only 23 minutes remaining to beat Welshpool.
Bangor had a 6-0 win in the quarters against a lower tier club .

Bangor @ 1.36 with bet365 looks like good value to me but not tempting enough on its own.
Bangor ht/ft is available @ 1.85 which is tempting but this is the cup


this is a copy of what I posted last week

I see this as an easy Bangor win ,Newport YMCA not having a good season in the Welsh League which is at a lower tier and lower class/ability than Bangor who ned this Cup win for any chance of European football , which has been their target all season , i'll be surprised if Bangor do not score 3 or 4

welsh-premier preview


Quote:
NEWPORT YMCA manager Mark Coldrick says Bangor City hold no fears for his Welsh League minnows in Saturday's Welsh Cup semi-final.
The Gwent outfit have already claimed the scalps of holders Carmarthen, Llangefni and Welshpool in previous rounds and, after watching Bangor lose at Carmarthen on Sunday, the YM boss says: "We watched them and there's nothing for us to fear, they're a decent side with pace up front but nothing particularly stood out.
"Obviously we're the underdogs and we won't underestimate them but we believe we can get another Premier League scalp."
Beaten in two of their last five league games, YM will stay overnight in Newtown on Friday ahead of the Latham Park showdown and Coldrick admits his side have been distracted by their cup run.
"We lost at Afan Lido three days after the Welshpool game and it was a bit like after the Lord Mayor's Show," he added.
"And at Goytre on Tuesday we shuffled our pack a bit with Bangor in mind. The lads were a bit disappointed but it was easy to pick up their heads with such a massive game on the horizon."
With Alex Stewart definitely ruled out, Coldrick is keeping his fingers crossed that giant striker Lewis Sommers can overcome a tweaked hamstring to play.
Meanwhile, Bangor manager Nev Powell says he is looking forward to turning back the clock if his side can lift the trophy.
Powell was a player at Farrar Road when they took on Spanish giants Athletico Madrid in the 1985 European Cup Winners' Cup.
"It would be great to experience European football again," said Powell. "We've got a good chance of making it to the final and, if we do that, we're just one game from Europe."
28 March 2008

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the fight at the bottom...the type of matches I usually avoid , but I'm drawn to them because of my club Port's involvement , fate has got the bottom 6 playing each other this weekend.
Caution perhaps it is my heart ruling my head in these selections

Friday's match

Cefn Druids[13th]-32pts v Caernarfon[15th] -27pts
Cefn are safe with 32pts and have this home record W7 D1 L7
Cefn have gained points recently from wins against Llanelli and Caersws.
Caernarfon are after a win to get to safety have this away record W4 D2 L9 , not a good record but better than their home record . Since their win against Caersws in the first week in Feb they have had difficult matches and have only managed three draws and two defeats against Llanelli and Airbus.
I don't think there is much betweeen these two sides and I believe that Caernarfon will have more incentive to get the points before the other sides play on Saturday. With 3.25 being offered for a coin flip I am willing to go for the away side.
Caernarfon @ 3.25 with Coral ...2 pts

Saturday

Caersws[16th]-24pts v Llangefni[17th]-23pts
In 2008 Caersws results have been very poor with just one home win and two draws , one last week from neighbours Welshpool , I saw highlights on the tele , the conditions were terrible and so was the performances of the two teams.
Llangefni's away performances is the worst in the league and have only won away twice ,but recent home performances have been very good with 3 wins out of their last four home games , those wins have been 4-2 ,3-0 and 4-1 against teams who are in the top half of the table.
I think with Llangefni riding the confidence wagon I can see them winning this one.
Llangefni @ 2.75 with bet365...2 pts

Porthmadog[18th]-22pts v Connah's Quay [14th]-30pts
The team with the worst home record of W0 D3 L12 against the team with the worst but one away record of W2 D3 L11 .
Two wins by Llangefni has put my club Port at the bottom of the league as Port last three matches have against top clubs Port Talbot , Llanelli and Rhyl. Port did get an away win at Connah's Quay in November but at the moment confidence is low .
Connah's Quay had an away draw to near neighbours Airbus on Tuesday in a match where very few chances were created. C.Q. may have the belief that they are safe with a draw and will come to play negative football on Saturday.
Port can score goals but we also conceed them , but I'm confident that we can beat a side that are poor away for our first home win.

Porthmadog @ 2.5 with bluesq ...2pts

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Originally Posted by traeth

Caution perhaps it is my heart ruling my head in these selections

Friday's match

Cefn Druids[13th]-32pts v Caernarfon[15th] -27pts With 3.25 being offered for a coin flip I am willing to go for the away side.
Caernarfon @ 3.25 with Coral ...2 pts

last night's results

Welsh Premier League
Newi Cefn Druids 5-1 Caernarfon... coin flip "Doh"
Port Talbot 2-0 Carmarthen
Welshpool Town 2-1 Newtown

not a great start for the weekend , going to watch Port this afternoon , hoping for that first home win .

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I'll be backing Llanelli ht/ft here

Originally Posted by traeth

Caution perhaps it is my heart ruling my head in these selections

Caersws[16th]-24pts v Llangefni[17th]-23pts

Llangefni @ 2.75 with bet365...2 pts

Porthmadog[18th]-22pts v Connah's Quay [14th]-30pts

Porthmadog @ 2.5 with bluesq ...2pts

today's results... i should avoid April in this league

Caersws 1-1 Llangefni
Llanelli 1-0 Airbus
Porthmadog 3-3 Connah's Quay
The New Saints 6-2 Haverfordwest

Bangor @ 1.36 with bet365 looks like good value to me but not tempting enough on its own.
Bangor ht/ft is available @ 1.85 which is tempting but this is the cup

FAW WELSH CUP SEMI-FINAL
Bangor City 3-1 Newport YMCA