some thoughts from
Bettingzone
Arsenal v Reading
Reading have won just the once away from home in the Premier League this season while Arsenal are unbeaten at the Emirates so odds as big as 11/1 about Steve Coppell's men aren't surprising. They hit a new low last weekend when losing to Fulham at home and that followed a 3-0 hammering at Newcastle. Those results suggest Arsenal have nothing to fear. The Gunners could field a dejected XI after their season fell apart at Anfield and Old Trafford last week but Emmanuel Adebayor says his side want to finish the season on a high and he could be the man to inspire them. He has rediscovered his scoring touch in recent games and can lead Arsenal to an end of season rout here.
Verdict: Arsenal 5 Reading 0 (BL)
Blackburn v Man Utd
Ewood Park hasn't been a good ground for Sir Alex Ferguson down the years. Prior to last year's 1-0 win - secured by a second-half strike from Louis Saha - United had failed to emerge from Blackburn with the three points in each of the previous six seasons. Rovers had won three of those games, the most memorable victory coming in 2006 when a David Bentley hat-trick helped the hosts to a thrilling 4-3 win. Mark Hughes will be looking for a response from his side after their rather inept performance in the 3-1 defeat at Anfield and his strong Old Trafford connections mean it's a game he'll be desperate to get his team up for - as he has so successfully in the past. Yes, United look pretty unstoppable at the moment but they have a Champions League game on the horizon and might not quite be prepared to go the extra mile here if the game is deadlocked. Rovers have lost just four of 17 at home in the Premier League and their strong record against United suggests they may be able to earn a battling point - an attractive 3/1 with
bet365.
Verdict: Blackburn 1 Man Utd 1 (DT)
Fulham v Liverpool
Fulham have beaten Liverpool three times at Craven Cottage in the Premier League including their last two encounters in London and they will be confident after breaking their away duck at Reading last week. Perhaps they are a point or so shorter than they would otherwise have been due to that win. It must be considered that Rafael Benitez will field a weakened team here with their Champions League first leg clash with Chelsea just days away. However, with fourth place still to be secured expect Liverpool's fringe players to be up for this in a similar way they were when they recorded a 1-1 draw at Arsenal in the league. Peter Crouch starred for the Reds that day and with a starting role likely on Saturday he might not be a bad bet to score anytime. However, he looks a tad short at 2/1. In the win market the draw appeals most at 5/2 though we are happy to sit this one out.
Verdict: Fulham 1 Liverpool 1 (BL)
Middlesbrough v Bolton
Kevin Davies gave Bolton a Premier League lifeline when scoring the only goal against West Ham last week but his 10th booking of the season in that game means he is suspended for this. He is hardly prolific himself - that was only his fourth goal of the campaign - but without him Bolton's potency in front of goal looks significantly less. Middlesbrough drew with Manchester United in their last home game but previous to that they narrowly beat Derby, and lost to Cardiff and Reading. They continue to pump themselves up for the big games only to let themselves down on the less inspiring days at the Riverside. With Boro' all but safe and Bolton lacking in options up front this could well be an attritional affair and to be avoided by the purist fan. They drew 0-0 at the Reebok earlier in the season and the 17/2
William Hill offer about no goalscorer is well worth a small stakes punt.
Middlesbrough 0 Bolton 0 (BL)
West Ham v Derby
West Ham fans have witnessed just 18 Premier League goals from their team at Upton Park this season - the third lowest tally in the top flight. So a home game against hapless Derby must be a golden chance for them to finally give the Hammers faithful something to cheer about. Paul Jewell's side have conceded 74 times this season and let in six against Aston Villa last week. One slight consolation is that their last two away games have resulted in mere 1-0 defeats (at Everton and Middlesbrough) so against a goal-shy team like West Ham they might be able to get away with something similar. If West Ham had something to play for we could perhaps go for a convincing home win but they're drifting around in the mid-table no-man's land so goals can't be taken for granted. West Ham should win of course but their price reflects this and it's not really a game to get involved with.
Verdict: West Ham 1 Derby 0 (DT)
Wigan v Tottenham
Steve Bruce was thrilled to come away from Stamford Bridge with a point on Monday night and Wigan deserved it too after failing to cave in following Michael Essien's strike 10 minutes into the second half. The most notable feature of meetings between these two has been the number of goals, with all five Premier League clashes featuring at least three and the last game at the JJB resulting in a 3-3 draw. It's easy to envisage both goalkeepers picking the ball out of the net a combined three times again although over 2.5 goals is 4/5 across the board so the layers are expecting it. The scorer markets are obviously of interest too and given the number of goals Spurs have conceded at set-pieces, a small play on Paul Scharner finding the net at anytime could be worth a dabble. The Austrian has scored five goals this season and is a big threat from free-kicks and corners. If Spurs take their eye off him he could cash in again.
Verdict: Wigan 2 Tottenham 2 (DT)
Aston Villa v Birmingham
Birmingham have been battling all season long without pulling away from the drop zone and they will find themselves deeper in the mire if they fail to get anything at their fierce rivals. Aston Villa bounced back from a 4-0 hammering at Old Trafford with wide-margin victories of their own against Bolton and Derby to reignite slim hopes of European qualification. So, there's even more than usual riding on this one. It's easy to be drawn to 'unders' in local derbies as they are often blood and thunder affairs with little goalmouth action but this particular fixture has a habit of producing goals. In the four Premier League encounters between the teams at Villa Park only once has there been under 2.5 goals and that was 2-0 (to Birmingham). In fact Birmingham have a good record here in the Premier League having won twice, drawn once and lost once. However Villa beat Birmingham home and away when the Blues were relegated in 2006 while Martin O'Neill's team also won at St Andrews this season. From the teams below Villa in the league only Sunderland have won at Villa Park which underlines the task facing Birmingham but as we know they are usually good for a goal in this fixture so we are drawn to some value in the anytime goalscorer market. Mauro Zarate has scored four goals in four games and is available at 3/1 to score anytime.
Verdict: Aston Villa 2 Birmingham 2 (BL)
Newcastle v Sunderland
Both of these North East rivals recorded three back-to-back successes recently to ease relegation fears so remarkably after a season of struggles they come into this one in fair form. Michael Owen was predictably at the heart of Newcastle's resurgence as he scored in all three of their wins while Michael Chopra came of the bench twice to score in victories for Sunderland. Newcastle did the double over Sunderland when the Black Cats went down in 2006 but the two teams drew earlier this season and the league table suggests there is not much between these two. With renewed confidence at Newcastle the bookies price up Kevin Keegan's side at odds-on but it would take a brave man to back them at such prices on the balance of this season's form. Newcastle have only won seven out of 17 in front of their own fans this term and with their local rivals in town this could well be another frustrating day for the Magpies faithful.
VC Bet offer 27/10 about a stalemate and that looks a fair price.
Verdict: Newcastle 1 Sunderland 1 (BL)
Manchester City v Portsmouth
Only the top four have won more home games than City this season while only Chelsea have won more times on the road than Pompey so both sides have legitimate claims on those very basic stats. Drill down further though and City's home form has gone astray in the second half of the season and pencilling Sven's men in for a home win is now a risky strategy. Despite the downward trend in their results, City did manage to win 2-1 at in-form Sunderland last time out so that would have restored a bit of confidence. As for Portsmouth, the main trend to spot in their recent results is how few goals they've been conceding. They've kept clean sheets in their last three and, going further back, kept the opposition out in five of the last six. When you factor in that City have failed to score in three of their last four outings then it appear that goals should be hard to come by. However, in tight games, Pompey have an excellent record of nicking victory. They've racked up eight 1-0 wins on the road this season and six of those have come in their last 10 road trips. Those are very favourable stats for a punt on the City 0 Pompey 1 scoreline at 8/1.
Verdict: Manchester City 0 Portsmouth 1 (DT)
19-20th April English Premiership
