SPL Without The Old Firm

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Basically - thats the odds for whoever finishes third.

The obvious choice for me at the minute is Aberdeen - they look to be going places. All they need is a 15+ goal striker and they will have a decent side. They have by far the best central midfield outwith the old firm in Nicholson and Severin. Also have a solid centre back pairing in Diamond and Anderson. They are going to be a tough side to beat.

I did say at the minute though as the potential is there in Hearts to be the best side outwith the old firm. I rate Burley very highly and he has a habit of unearthing some real cheap diamonds. Seems to have the backing of the board moneywise so it will all come down to who they get in which is why i will wait a bit before i start getting involved.

My outsider would be Dundee United at 14/1. They totally underachieved last season and have a very decent squad - they have the largest wage bill outside of the old firm so they must have some quality. They have added Lee Miller to their side, and him paired with Crawford should be a pretty good strikeforce. They started getting it together towards the end of the season under Chisholm and if they get a good start then they could be a good outsider.

[fasteddy]

The problem with the Scottish Prem is the lack of value due to the lack of real competition. I agree that Aberdeen look good, along Hearts/Hibs, and are the only real bets available.
Dundee Utd did put some decent displays in , but I'd be surprised if they managed such an improvement to finish 3rd.

Hibs have a good man in Mowbray..I believe he will continue his winning ways with the club regardless of Riordan being there or not.
Hearts have a very good manager in Burley: big fan of his , and I think they would be my choice for 3rd spot.

Rarely bet in the ante post on this league...nothing of TRUE value...maybe the handicaps will throw us a line...like 2003-4 with Dunfermline...+50pts if memory serves...actually that looks too big...anyway..they won.

Match betting is the favourite ante post of mine...all leagues and get them in combos...really do get value there.

[MickeyPaul]

Not a fan of bets like this either. I would have edged toward Hearts due to Burley's outstanding record in recent years but not at those odds. I initially thought Dundee Utd might be a possibility too Kiko but lack of consistency is always their downfall and it's pretty hard to tell if things are about to change. It's all too speculative for me really. No reason why Aberdeen shouldn't have another good season but so often teams outwith the Old Firm have a good season then fall away the next so I'd be wary of them and Hibs. I'd guess the stats would say Hearts finish 3rd more often than the others. :think

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by fasteddy

The problem with the Scottish Prem is the lack of value due to the lack of real competition. I agree that Aberdeen look good, along Hearts/Hibs, and are the only real bets available.
Dundee Utd did put some decent displays in , but I'd be surprised if they managed such an improvement to finish 3rd.

I'd disagree with that Eddy. Outwith the Old Firm the SPL is one of the most dynamic and competitive leagues - don't forget that it was only one short year ago that Dunfermline and Dundee United were top six sides pushing for Europe, while Hibs and Aberdeen languished in the bottom half(Aberdeen second bottom only to Partick.)

Wee Livingston even managed a 3rd place finish in their first season in the SPL, with what was only really a workmanlike side with one or two gems. I sat there amazed at how free signings, some of which were made as a first division side, such as Quino, Fernandez, Andrews,Brinquin etc were easily outclassing some of the highly paid Hearts/Hibs/Aberdeen players.

With the financial climate like it is, and not such big differences between most sides' budgets, one or two cracking free buys can transform a side from bottom six to top six material.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

I see where your coming from with sides having a good season then falling away. But this is usually due to the factors of the sides losing their manager, best players.

This isn't the case with Aberdeen. They have kept their best players and have improved the side.

I think Hibs will slide away though - Riordan and Murray are going to be hard to replace. There is only so long you can rely on youngsters to pull you through and i think their lack of experience will catch up with them.

[Beanie]

I'd seriously doubt Hearts ability to sort their team out this season.

Webster has refused to go on tour with the team, obviously urging on his impending departure.

If a guy who has grown up in the team with his Scotland teammates Gordon and Pressley is so keen to leave that might show up as a signal of the confidence the players have in what direction the club is pointing.

Burton O Brien is certainly not keen to go there and looks 99% likely to end up in England, and on the face of it Romanav looks a nightmare to work with.

His continual talk of more and more Lithuanians must be concerning for Burley, who doesn't look like he'll ever get a clean crack to do exactly as he wants. Questions remain over Romanov's money. No Euro footy for the first time in a few years. No big signings imminent Etc.

If Romanov is to have a positive impact there, I would expect it would be seen in future seasons rather than this.

[Beanie]

PS Totesport have Falkirk and Livi at 80/1 for a League W/O the Old Firm which is far too big for the reasons mentioned above. Signings like Latapy, Sylla, Fernandez, Doumbe, Nemsadze, Sara etc have all been drifting around on frees in recent seasons, and all it can take at times is the unearthing of a gem to transform a side.

Might fire a quid on each at those odds.

[fasteddy]

I agree with you Beanie that the matches outwith the Old Firm can , and often do, provide that kind of action, but my point was relating to the odds on offer.

There hasn't been a truly outstanding upset for 3rd ,apart from "Livi" ,in the last 6 years...........I'd say their season, 01/02, is the exception and not the rule.

The last 6 seasons has seen either Hearts (3) or Hibs (2) finish third. So, from a 'betting' point of view there is never going to be any value due to lack of real competition for that 3rd spot.

Sure, St J came 3rd in 98/99 , but we have take a starting point to measure the current trends, and I think that 00/01 is a good place to start...12 teams being the new order of the day.

The points difference between 1st and last in 00/01 was 67..then it went 82-69-72-60..now that may look like John Daly's golf card, but it shows how HUGE a gap in quality there is in the league.....of only 12 teams....

if we look at the gap between 1st and 3rd over the same period it looks like :
00/01 was 31 then ..45-34-20-32..ok this may read like the individual daily intake of cups of coffee for Komp.. but it shows very little progress overall in closing the gap...whioch tells me that Hibs and Hearts can change management/players etc...but never going to make it.

Is it fair to measure the lack of progress of the 3rd placed teams to the rest of the league?...well, apart from the odd "surprise' from one club or another, i think the status is usually the same.

Breakout clubs in the Prem?..not really....look further down the scottish Leagues and we'll find that sort of behaviour..obvious example being Gretna.

I know what you mean Beanie, but from a betting point of view the value is never realised....stays on the slip till the end of the season - then it's binned!

[fasteddy]

Forgot to add.., the gap between 3rd and 5th in the last 5 seasons has been 9+ pts...that's a 3 game superiority , which to me is too big if you take the view that it is competitive...3-5pts spread is ok, but not a constant 9 and over.

If that 80/1 can be done each way..i'd have a piece of it ....

If anyone out there has the tables of the last 5 season minus the Olf Firm results for all clubs, I'd be really interested in that....might give it a go myself next weekend...I think that would throw up some useful stats

[MickeyPaul]

You can find lots of info here eddy: soccerbot

Hold the cursor over W D L for results.

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by fasteddy

The last 6 seasons has seen either Hearts (3) or Hibs (2) finish third. So, from a 'betting' point of view there is never going to be any value due to lack of real competition for that 3rd spot.

Sure, but Hibs were hardly odds(or anywhere near) on for the spot last season.

If anything, after their poor 2003/2004 season, with an untested manager, their odds would have been pushed quite far out, and would have been trading at around 8/1 or so, not near the favourites of the market. There was certainly value there, yet I am sure many expected Hearts to once again stroll to third.

You're also seeing a much higher turnover in squads than previous seasons, even seasons within those 6 that you mention, as clubs offer far more one year deals. Livi will be looking for 8 or 9 signings this summer, and who knows how they will turn out. A few trips to training to watch them, take in a few pre season games and spot a fantastic team in the making, while the bookies generally stick to the odds they decided on, and you'll have value on your side.

I don't think its possible to judge whether there is value or not just now because we haven't seen the majority of signings, or any form indicators.

I reckon we'll have to agree to disagree on this one, but I'll certainly be keeping a close eye on the signings and friendly reports, and have confidence that the value will show itself in due course.

[Beanie]

Mighty me...Dunfermline's appeal over their placcy pitch rejected.



Time for more appeals, and then some more court action, just how the SPL likes it!

Hooray!

[fasteddy]

All good points Beanie...I agree with you on a lot of them as well.

I suppose that it boils down to what we think 'value' is...a personal opinion usually, so yes...I'll agree to disagree, but you've certainly given me food for thought...I'll take another look at the league this season...

[fasteddy]

You can find lots of info here eddy: soccerbot

Hold the cursor over W D L for results

cheers MickeyPaul.