The Premiership Weekend 24/25/26th Sept

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Newcastle win for me



Sorry Komp - stolen your little thing, i like it

Newcastle have done the hard work now and have got that win that looked like being a far way away. The amount of confidence a win generates will have them buzzing now.

Especially the fact that they had so many of their better players missing, that they can look forward to getting back week by week.

You had confidence boosters in Shearer scoring his first goal in the EPL since February and Owen getting his first for his new side so i expect a far greater improvement on the goal scoring front now.

NUFC: To follow....Taylor is suspended, Parker is available after suspension. Ameobi, Solano, Dyer, Emre and Ramage are hopeful of being back in contention, with the Peruvian closer to a return than either Dyer or Emre.

Definitely on the sick list are Luque, Moore and Chopra - the latter two now back in training but not match fit.

MCFC: To follow.... Trevor Sinclair misses out with a foot problem, while Robbie Fowler is seeing a specialist about his back and won't feature.

Taylor will be a loss as he has been arguably their best player this season but the timely return of Parker will add a lot of grit to the side and he has been doing well also.

Solano returning will give them a lot of width, which will then lead to more chances being created.

Yup - definately siding with Newcastle, although the draw will be more likely probably.

[christianu]

Swoops, this is what forums are all about.

[christianu]

As I said Kiko wether you think Newcastle will win or not is not the point. Its wether you are getting a good run on your money at that price.

With City without any doubt (IMO) you are- its a profitable bet. Betting on Newcastle isnt on this occasion. If you made this bet 10 times it would yield a negative amount is the point im getting accross.

Id rather go on the roulette and spin for Black 10 times.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

I can see what your saying Chris but the getting a run for your money with value i dont agree with. If the backer thinks the side is going to win then no matter what the odds are he is getting value for money whether its 1/12, 8/13 or 5/1.

But i do understand your theory behind placing your bets and City's odds are too big, i was expecting more around 7/4 but i really don't think they will win this match.

What was the side that played last night? Was it full strength or did Pearce rest a lot of the first team?

[christianu]

And one more thing, Newcastle arnt the team everyone thinks they are. They have one of the worst defences in the premiership and thats arguably the most important part.

Newcastle will end up winning after all this as thats the kind of thing that happens to me- but like I said it doesnt mean it was the correct bet Same goes with mine if you think im wrong. So on both parts no saying "I told you so" as that wouldnt be accurate!

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Originally Posted by christianu

As I said Kiko wether you think Newcastle will win or not is not the point. Its wether you are getting a good run on your money at that price.

With City without any doubt (IMO) you are- its a profitable bet. Betting on Newcastle isnt on this occasion. If you made this bet 10 times it would yield a negative amount is the point im getting accross.

Id rather go on the roulette and spin for Black 10 times.

It doesnt matter if you bet this 10 times - the fact of the matter is your not, its a one off game.

And i do think i would get a run for my money as i believe Newcastle will win this match.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Originally Posted by christianu

And one more thing, Newcastle arnt the team everyone thinks they are. They have one of the worst defences in the premiership and thats arguably the most important part.

Newcastle will end up winning after all this as thats the kind of thing that happens to me- but like I said it doesnt mean it was the correct bet Same goes with mine if you think im wrong. So on both parts no saying "I told you so" as that wouldnt be accurate!

If Newcastle win it doesnt mean its the correct bet?? Sorry Chris, i said i agree with your theorys on how you place your bet earlier but thats a lot of rubbish what you are saying.

If a team wins and you have money on it and win, then it is the correct bet. I don't understand how you can think any different.

[christianu]

Originally Posted by Kiko

I can see what your saying Chris but the getting a run for your money with value i dont agree with. If the backer thinks the side is going to win then no matter what the odds are he is getting value for money whether its 1/12, 8/13 or 5/1.

But i do understand your theory behind placing your bets and City's odds are too big, i was expecting more around 7/4 but i really don't think they will win this match.

What was the side that played last night? Was it full strength or did Pearce rest a lot of the first team?

Kiko if you thought City should be 7/4 then you should be staking a maximum bet on City as its a profitable bet which yields a positive return which is what you aim to do betting on football.

If the backer thinks the side is going to win then no matter what the odds are he is getting value for money whether its 1/12, 8/13 or 5/1.

Again that is wrong in every sense. If you think somebody is going to win you know it is never 100% certain, you just think it is the most likely outcome so you think they are going to win.

From this logic, Swoops thinks Newcastle will win, would he take 1/12??

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Why would i take City though if i don't believe they will win even if i thought they would've been around 7/4 and are 3/1?

Sorry Chris - i aint going to agree with you here as i think its just stupid. I back the side i believe will win, no matter if their opponents are priced far higher than i think they should be.

No point in letting this thread get clogged up either so im going to just leave it as it is mate.

[christianu]

Kiko I am far from talking any rubbish at all.

If the backer thinks the side is going to win then no matter what the odds are he is getting value for money whether its 1/12, 8/13 or 5/1.

That is a load of rubbish mate.

The likes of Crowie, WAS and so on who you may have more respect for as a punter will agree 100% with me on my theory- perhaps not on my bet on City.

If Newcastle win it doesnt mean its the correct bet?? Sorry Chris, i said i agree with your theorys on how you place your bet earlier but thats a lot of rubbish what you are saying.

Kiko I feel without wanting to sound patronising then theres a lot to sports betting that you need to learn.

If someone backed Bolton a team at 11/10 and the opposing team had 26 shots to 3 and hit the woodwork 5 times and missed 2 penalties and the 11/10 scored a last minute fluke does it mean it was a correct bet? No.

This is the simplistic way to say it really.

[slick]

I'll post my thoughts on this match tomorrow but b4 i even considered backing City for this i'd make sure they have a recognised centre forward playing, Was quite surprised th other night at Fowler not getting a game unless he was injured again but sebieski is not a forward and Vassell we'll he's Vassell and not one i'd put my money on to hit the net.

Still good odds mind considering the form of the 2 teams but i'd think about it carefully.

[christianu]

Originally Posted by Kiko

Why would i take City though if i don't believe they will win even if i thought they would've been around 7/4 and are 3/1?

Sorry Chris - i aint going to agree with you here as i think its just stupid. I back the side i believe will win, no matter if their opponents are priced far higher than i think they should be.

No point in letting this thread get clogged up either so im going to just leave it as it is mate.

When I backed Portsmouth at 5/1 against Everton I knew that Everton were the most likely team to win but I also thought that Portsmouth had a better chance than 5/1- roughly around 4/1 I said so in that case it was the right bet to take as its a value bet.

I fail to see how you think what im saying is rubbish as all im doing is describing a value bet which is the key to making a profit on football.

[Swooperman]

1/12....no.
4/6......no.
Evs & above, yes maybe, thats what i'm arguing, although with Kiko on it my short list has gone to 5

So, in the argument about value I guess I'm with you on that Chris

I just like the bet, I think they'll score & that therefore gives them a decent chance of winning....simple really I'm personally not reading too much into last night as a performance, just I think it wont have helped confidence, after somehow not scoring on sunday.
If the game had been played 2 weeks ago I wouldnt touch Newcastle with a barge pole, but its all about timing. I like City, much more than Newcastle, but thats not the point here.

Also, Chris, there was a few saying they didnt give Newcastle a prayer on sunday, not just you....in fact you might not even have said it, but the posts were there

[Swooperman]

Any other games on this week then

I think we should leave this one until 5pm saturday

[christianu]

I never said it as Blackburn are always vulnerable to a side with pace when playing at home as they have to take the game to there oppenents.

Swoops as another example had a few 4/1 bets last weekend as I remember correctley but I think he understood that they wernt the most likely team to win but they had a better shout than 4/1.

If you think 2.2 is value for Newcaslte then fair enough mate