Weekend non-league

[mrmuzeman]

Hate it when that happens mate

Im already on Histon for 5pts (stakes 1-20pts by the way - what are your parameters AMP?) so just a normal bet for me. Not overly confident because of the way the home side seem to keep it fairly tight at home and try and grind em out. But the fact is in any professional league this would be odds on for a top v bottom and I dont see why this should be any different. It seems to me that teams go more to form in non league anyway.

For the record Im on Chippenham in a big way as I really fancy it, I think it should be 1/3 max so i think the 4/6 is a steal. Ive gone for it on a single, a small double with Staines and the ht/ft. Ever heard of putting your eggs in 1 basket....

[A.M.P]

Yep - Just watch them very closely! (Warren Buffet)

My paremater's are that 3 points is my average bet, 10 is a large bet and 20 is currently the maximum I have (although 365 wouldn't let me have more than 14 or so on Swindon Submarine the other week back...) bet on a single. Like you I had about 40 points on in the FA cup weeks as i like to spread my bets about for a (hopefully) small return.

I'll look into Chippenham again as you're right the Weymouth / Mangoes prices are not really tempting. I saw the other forum you mentioned and it sounds a great tip. if Pritchard is injured again I'll might be along aswell for 3 points.

AMP

[A.M.P]

Muze - I'm now in full agreement that the 4/6 is value and i'm off to SJ to have betwen 6-9 points on it....

This stat swung me (plus reading the Chippenham v Newport match report)
from the Southern League fixtures to date:

Home games:

P W D L F A +/- Pts
1 Chippenham Town 4 4 0 0 10 1 +9 12

Away Games:

22 Yate Town 4 0 0 4 1 11 -10 0

Almost the mirror image!

From "This is Bristol" it appears that their injury crisis won't be rectified soon:

Thompson is "desperate" to strengthen a side depleted by injuries, although he does have defenders Lee Jefferies and Dave Elsey back from suspension and unavailability.

He said: "I've been on the phone constantly searching for players, particularly a striker, and all I've been doing is hitting brick walls.

"There's just no one available, it seems, and it's frustrating."

Going down 3-0 at home to Team Bath (who aren't one of the top teams in this league) is a bad result - especially considering that bath were 3-0 up in 15 minutes:



Yate Tn 0 Team Bath 3

YATE never recovered from conceding three goals in the opening quarter-of-an-hour in this one-sided Southern Premier Division clash.

Team Bath forced a left-wing corner after two minutes, which the Yate defence failed to clear. The ball was played back to the left and crossed for unmarked central defender Nick Hudson to give goalkeeper Dave Dyson no chance with a powerful header.

Steve Cook then went close to increasing the lead after eight minutes when he cut inside from the right, but he was unlucky to see his powerful drive hit the upright with Dyson beaten.

Cook then opened up the Yate defence and, with the home side appealing for offside, Sean Canham ran through to slide the ball past Dyson and make it 2-0 after 13 minutes.

Two minutes later Canham struck to add a third after good approach play between Paul Tisdale and Dean Smith had again opened up the Yate rearguard.

I'm going to have 9 points on Yate and make them my biggets single of the weekend. Which is a shame as I used to live there and my old dears family are from there....Still, it isn't the second time I've backed against them though...

AMP

[mrmuzeman]

I'm going to have 9 points on Yate and make them my biggets single of the weekend

I hope not mate! Nah I know you mean Chippenham.

Ive thought about having more on the single as well, but since I have the double with them in and ht/ft I guess I should just leave it there

The stats almost seem too perfect dont they!

Anyway rock on Chippenham

[A.M.P]

Yeah - Go on Chippenham!!!

I agree it does look too good to be true. Unfortunately the Yate town websites not very good and Chippenham's is not carrying any up-to-date information.

Still, both recent match reports make for excellent reading!

[Kop66]

I'm going to talk about Crawley again so i guess you'll want to skip straight to the next post

Altrincham v Crawley

I'm going to take one more chance on the visitors here based on stats and odds not being in line with each other.

Taking the last six games as form guide its hard to see why any team are going to be priced 2/1 (Laddies) against Altrincham, their form has been as bad as anybody's anywhere.

From the last 6 they have drawn 2 and lost 4 but a more stand out stat is...
Goals For 1, Goals against 17 in this period
Surely East Stirling would be a shorter price than 2/1 here

Crawley i know are strugling at the bottom of the table but have at least picked up 2 wins and a draw in their last 6, match reports suggest they are in a false position and when you look at their Goals For 12, Goals against 13 stat it gives the impression that the 2/1 could be a value bet.

A win for Crawley here would see them leapfrog the hosts.

I think i'm going to make Morecambe my main bet though, they have some real solid form of late scoring 16 goals against 6 from their last 6 games. They should be looking forward to the trip to FGR after 3 consecutive, impressive wins. FGR seem to be on the slide now after an average start to the season. 5/4 for the away, not a bad price.

I also considered Aldershot, Woking, Southport and York but decided to keep bets to a minimum this week.

Good luck non leaguers

[A.M.P]

I'm on crawley for a point at 2/1 also as I wouldn't make Altrincham favourites for this match and would give Crawley an equal chance.

I'm glad you liked Woking and I briefly considered York. reading the recent exeter match reports it seems they've lost their way a bit. York have found some good form and the 2.4 quote I saw for them at home looked healthy. In the end due to the number of bets I have (again) I decided not to punt. southport are also on my "keep an eye on list"with Aldershot.

Best of luck to you Kop.

AMP

[A.M.P]

Yeading V Eastliegh

Again, this is a cracking bet from the Conference South. I've just decided on upgrading my stake from 5 points to 10 points after doing the research for this post....

Promoted Ryman Champions Yeading are going well and are a respectable 10th in the league. Unbeaten away they have gone down 3 times at home to three of the section's form teams - Lewes, Sutton and Cambridge.

However, home form is starting to pick up and this has probably tied into the recruitement of a number of new players.

[i]Ding manager Johnson Hippolyte has made a major coup ahead of his side's league game with Havant & Waterlooville. Joining the Ding striking ranks is Manny Williams. The 23 year old signs from Leyton where he was regularly on the scoresheet in the Ryman League and has been watched by a number of clubs in recent months. A former England Schoolboy, Manny has also netted for Concord Rangers, Bowers United, Notts County and Millwall.
Also signing in time for the weekend are two more defensive players. Nineteen year-old Ben Hudell is an attacking left back released by Premiership Chelsea over the summer, for whom he featured ten times last season in theReserves.

After a spell with the Ding pre-season, former Hayes defender Adam Everitt has signed Conference forms for Yeading. Always strong in the tackle, Adam has also played for Harrow Borough, Hemel Hempstead Town and had a spell with Luton Town.

The new attacker seems to be quite the boy:

From Maidenhead match report:

http://www.yeadingfc.co.uk/matchdetails.asp?mid=141

On for Yeading Gavin Tomlin and Manny Williams. The latter having scored last week with his very first touch in a Yeading shirt, netted with almost his first contribution in cup football.

They beat Havant 2-0 in their last league game (who spanked Eastleigh 4-1 on Monday) and beat Maidenhead 3-0 at home in the cup. so it's 3 wins on the bounce for Yeading and a credible away draw to Weymouth.

And what of Eastliegh? Well, the home draw with in form Havant doesn't appear too bad but their league form is diabolical:

Last five in the league:

A Thurrock Conference South 1 - 3
H Bishop's Stortford Conference Sout 0 - 1
A Bognor Regis Town Conference South 0 - 2
H Welling United Conference South 1 - 3
A Histon Conference South 0 - 1

This is their away form to date:

P4 W0 D0 L4 F1 A7.....

Not counting the 4-1 at Havant, which their "Director of Football" described as "The worst performance that I've seen for a year..."

http://www.thisissouthampton.co.uk/h...FOOTBALL8.html


Well Done If you've perserved with another AMP 10 page essay you deserve a prize:

Eastleigh have mounting frontline problems with Andy Forbes (calf), Barry Mason (calf) and fill-in forward Martin Thomas (hamstring) all injured.

Yabadabadoo!!!!! That's the reason for my upgrading of the stakes. Forbes has 3 of the 6 goals that Eastleigh have scored in total in their 8 league games and scored the consolation on Monday.....

This is from their forum:

The lack of strength in depth cost us last night. Some (most) of our players looked like they didn't want to be there. That coupled with the fact that we were playing with a defender up front and a midfielder at left back meant there was always only going to be one winner. We need to take a good look at ourselves and get back to playing football with players in the correct positions. Why when we've got Forbes and Mason carrying injuries

Yeading - Bet 365 go 11/10...Skybet 10/11

AMP

[mrmuzeman]

Yes I perservered and a good read it was too, wonderful analysis amp!

I like that striker injury (its not like they score any goals as it is) and I didnt know that Yeading had some quality new recruits eager to impress.

Ahh I see Charlie Mapes plays for Yeading! He played for Crawley in the middle of the park last year. I saw Crawley a few times last season and he looked a very slick passing midfielder.

Im following you on this and going from 4.5pts to 9pts on this.

Our bets are extremely similar this weekend :loon

[crowie]

Great stuff again folks. Never fails to amaze me where you can dig all this info up from!!

It makes me almost want to try and add something to it myself but then I know I would be talking out of my arse

Anyway, think I will follow you in on Chippenham and Yeading this weekend.

GL with all bets

[mrmuzeman]

Yeah quality aint it Crow. Ahh your backing them, thats 2 winners for me then

Regarding Eastbourne v Newport...

Newport County's Jason Bowen is quoted as saying there were only 11 bodies in for training on Tuesday night, including two keepers and two players carrying injuries.

I like that :loon

[krider2010]

Just to echo Crowie here - great info and analysis once again

Nothing of any value that I could add here - still learning my non-league trade. Though thanks to AMP and Mr. Muze for educating me as to the wonders of lower division wagering with their info this season. Wealth of info really what with t'internet, and with several bad (to the bookies ) prices each week.

Prices on Nuneaton Boro each week haven't always been great but anyone know of to score books? Frew's knocking them in regular this season

[mrmuzeman]

Hmm not sure Krider, not sure they do anything but standard books below the conference to be honest.

Also to be fair AMPs the one who posts up good info here. 90% of the info I type is just ripped from other sites and im copying it here cos I think people over at TDP deserve to know and get their bets on the good info as well

[A.M.P]

Cheers for the plaudits - it's my aim to get as many people in here talking about non-league bets as possible. Hopefully then I'll be able to make my posts a bit shorter!!!

if it's 0 replies or 100 I'll still be punting and writing about it though i 'spose!

GL to all.

[kompressaur]

Good man Amp (and Mr M for thinking of us) again i can only echo what folks have said amp and give you a for you selection and sharing techniques (or something like that :loon)

Im still waiting to get money into my 365 account amp but wont be long and then i can start taking some of the exellent advice and picks from this thread. Ive only been avoiding it for about 3 years