FA Cup 3rd Round 6th/7th/8th Jan

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Originally Posted by kompressaur

Premiership Goal Spree
Every Premiership Team To Score In The FA Cup 3rd Round 100/1

Is it just me or does this actually look a decent bet? Or am i missing something here

Just had a quick look around at all the fixtures and i see no reason why every side from the EPL shouldnt score.

Everton/West Ham the only ones i would call a bit dodgy but their EPL class should have enough for them to at least get a goal.

Im going to chance a few quid on this.

[fasteddy]

Start of the season I took 3 teams in the FA and Carling Cups for a 3x3 doubles bet:

Carling Cup : Arsenal 9/1, Blackburn 33/1 (Newcastle)
FA Cup: Birmingham 50/1, Bolton 25/1, Manyoo 6/1

With Arse and Rovers in different semi's there's a good shout for the first part , especially the way Rovers have been playing lately , and it may be a good move for Birmingham with Sutton on the way, so not looking too bad at the mo.

Anyone else got Ante Post bets on this double?

[fasteddy]

7 Jan-13:00 Wigan v Leeds 1.72 3.40 4.33

Wigan

They have scored in 14 of the 28 played in the league so far, and have won 11 of them, lost 2 drawn 1. Pretty much a case of if they score they win.
They are ranked 3rd for scoring first , 9-0-0 15:1 3pts per game.
Clean sheets : ranked 2nd with 8-0-0 , again 3pts a game.
When they fail to score they lose: 7-0-0.

To me Wigan are a pretty straight forward side in their behaviour, with a need to score first to get a result. They take an average 40mins to open the scoring, and when at home that rises to 43mins. If Leeds were able to get in early I see them taking all the points.
Wigan rarely fight back , with only that freak result vs Man City (4-3) , getting a draw against the Boro, and the early season comeback in injury time vs WBA as examples of when they have.
Surely Blackwell will know this and press very quickly for an opener knowing also that the 1st 45 is the best time to score as well.

The last 2 games for Wigan have seen them fail to score :
vs Birmingham (A) they had 3 shots on goal from 41% poss
vs Blackburn (H) they had 4 shots from 50%

At home they average at least 50% , but even though this was still the case vs Balckburn they were slow to the ball and looked very tired indeed. They just aren't able to make the possession work for them at the moment.
Coming into this one they will be still suffering , so maybe Jewell will rest his main lot as they face Arse in the next match in the semi's of the Carling?

Leeds

		W	D	L	F:A	Rank
Score First	15	13	1	1	27:8	4
Opp Scores First	9	2	2	5	10:14	3
Clean Sheet	11	8	3	0	13:0	10
Fail To Score	8	0	3	5	0:6	11

bit easier this way, eh?

Leeds are only bettered by the high flying Reading as the 'form' side in the Championship , with 21pts from 9 games.
Away from home they have only hit more than 1 goal 3 times from 14 played. They still managed a 7-3-4 run and are ranked 3 rd in the league.

Not big scorers then, but at least they know how to get the points when on the road. They are a strong 2nd 45 side, who can take Wigan to the break all square at least, then push on for the win.

Fatigue hasn't seemed to play a big part in their fixture list as the weekend's 3-0 (A) at Plymouth will testify.
They have strikers in form, with a run of 4-0-0 , and the last 3 have been with clean sheets. Solid side , high on confidence, in very good form. Tough to beat on all fronts.

Leeds are my bet of the round, as they present excellent value.

Gamebookers : Leeds +0.75 @ 1.85 (including Overtime)
Stan James : Leeds @ 5.50
Stan James: Ht/Ft : Draw/Leeds @ 12.00
Leeds/Leeds @ 11.00

Correct scores of 0-1, 0-2 are worth a punt, but not in my selections.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Im with you on the Leeds bet Eddy.

With Wigan a side that have rested players in the cup games i see no reason for them to change this as they dont want a cup run to affect their league performance.

Seen Leeds last two games and i was very impressed with them on both occasions. Real solid outfit at the back with not much being given in the way of opportunities for their opponents.

Both times i have seen them though they have been slow starters. The problem seems to be that they try to break down sides down the middle to begin with and both times this didn't work so they then went down the wings which worked a treat both times and broke down their opponents with ease in the end.

Lewis gives them some geniune width and he has the talent to do so. Elsewhere they have ex EPL players who have the talent in Robbie Blake and Liam Miller and they are both take their opportunity at this club.

Leeds to win @ 5.50 SJ 1pt
Leeds Double Chance @ 2.05 Sporting Odds 3pts

[trickrick]

In agreement with the sentiments of a few others on the board, there is absolutely no way I'll be touching Sheffield United with a bargepole against Colchester. Warnock does not want to progress in this cup and he will be doing his damndest not to. I'll be very suprised if you see more than 3 or 4 first teamers playing on Saturday. Coupled with that is the fact that, although they have picked up a bit recently and been winning a few matches (aside from the match against Norwich) their recent matches against Preston (bore draw), Norwich (poor) and Stoke (injury time winner when a draw was a fair result) all of which I watched were nothing exceptional. Colchester on the other hand have been on a great run as demonstrated below (Swindon match aside)


16:00 02-01-2006 Colchester 3-1 Nottingham F.
14:00 31-12-2005 Brentford 0-2 Colchester
16:00 26-12-2005 Swindon 1-0 Colchester
16:00 17-12-2005 Colchester 2-0 Milton Keynes Dons
16:00 10-12-2005 Swansea 1-1 Colchester
20:45 06-12-2005 Hartlepool 0-1 Colchester
16:00 26-11-2005 Colchester 5-0 Gillingham
16:00 19-11-2005 Colchester 3-2 Blackpool
15:00 12-11-2005 Rotherham 1-2 Colchester
16:00 29-10-2005 Colchester 3-2 Yeovil

The Blades odds have been drifting from most bookmakers and Colchesters are moving in.. Strike now..! I am a Blades fan, and I believe that most fans (as well as Warnock) would prefer being out of the Cup now... We've had our Cup runs and fun like that in the past and we've gotta put ALL our efforts in the Championship..

I fancy a Lay of Sheff Utd (Betfair) at 1.52 as a good bet..

[thehandicapman]

Originally Posted by Kop66

Early thoughts..

Brentford 1.90 at Stockport i'll look more into that one but Brentford going very well in Div one and Stockport rock bottom of Div 2

Spurs, Barnsley and Portsmouth are on my shortlist too but Brentford are standout, they have won 50% of all away matches this season against much better opposition than Stockport.

From Rivals Carlisle website:

Carlisle United 6 Stockport County 0 By Lee Rooney Date: 29/10/2005 A superb performance saw United tear apart a poor Stockport County side at Brunton Park today and move up to 6th place. A brace from Derek Holmes an own-goal by Stockport keeper Carl Ikeme and an excellent Karl Hawley hat-trick made sure United moved back into the play-off places.

We were good today. In fact, we were bloody good. They were rubbish mind. I'll do a full match report tomorrow, but suffice to say, it could have finished 14-5. But it didn't. We won 6-0. Hurrah! short and sweet! but adds weight to the Brentford shout thehandicapman

[Keith]

I have already backed Colchester myself at 8.0 although I accept that we are gambling on team news as much as anything. Warnocks track record especially with his team selection for the Carling Cup game at Reading makes this a reasonable bet IMO

I am also keeping an eye on Leeds and Sheff W as other possibilities.

Wigan have struggled in their last two games and Charlton have been exceptionally poor for weeks.

Sheff W have been one of the most active on the recruitment front this week and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a change in their fortunes.

Other definite news is hard to come by at this stage but my labours have revealed the following;

Arsenal are likely to play a "90%" full strength side which seems to be a change of policy for the Gunners for those who like their short price bankers.

Ipswich have also been known to field understength sides have said that will not be experimenting on this occasion. They are at home to Portsmouth. Harry Rednapp is the sort to make changes but even if he does so I am still not sure that Ipswich are good enough these days to take advantage.

West Ham look to be a decent bet at Norwich. The Hammers dip in form over Xmas has coincided with a bit of an injury crisis. Things seen to be improving though with several players on the verge of returning. Norwich though are in the midst of an injury crisis themselves. A whole host of players will not be available according to the Norwich Evening News

Just got go and hoover up in GC after those messy sods and I'll be back with more

[Frodo]

Originally Posted by Kiko

Is it just me or does this actually look a decent bet? Or am i missing something here

Just had a quick look around at all the fixtures and i see no reason why every side from the EPL shouldnt score.

Everton/West Ham the only ones i would call a bit dodgy but their EPL class should have enough for them to at least get a goal.

Im going to chance a few quid on this.

Just had a check as I liked the sound of the bet too. It doesn't appear to be around anymore though.

[trickrick]

Originally Posted by Frodo

Just had a check as I liked the sound of the bet too. It doesn't appear to be around anymore though.

Yeah - massive price..I tried to do a comparison with Gamebookers and their bet that 'teams will score odds' accumulator, and I don't think it made 10/1 !!

[kompressaur]

aye theyve taken it down now Rick. Theyre offering to match your first bet though if you click the sportingodds link.

[Gomesh]

Port Vale

Injury-hit Port Vale are missing at least six players for Friday night's FA Cup third-round home tie with League One rivals Doncaster. Striker Nathan Lowndes is suspended while fellow frontman Lee Matthews is out for at least two months with a torn hamstring. Vale are without winger Chris Birchall, who also pulled out of the clash with Tranmere with a hamstring problem. Robin Hulbert, Michael Walsh and Hector Sam all remain sidelined with long-term injuries but veteran midfielder Danny Sonner should return after missing the last two games with a knock.

Doncaster:

Doncaster's Roberts brothers are missing for Friday night's FA Cup third-round tie at Port Vale. Defender Steve Roberts is out after suffering ruptured tendons while striker Neil Roberts is out for up to eight weeks with a broken toe. Alan Blayney has signed from Southampton for £50,000 and could be handed his debut amid a goalkeeping crisis. Jan Budtz, Andy Warrington and Barry Richardson are all sidelined by injury and Blayney looks certain to step in. Tim Ryan and Jermaine McSporran are also missing through injury.

From BBC:

Port Vale v Doncaster

Port Vale are missing at least six players, including strikers Nathan Lowndes and Lee Matthews.

Chris Birchall (hamstring) is also out, along with long-term injury victims Robin Hulbert, Michael Walsh and Hector Sam but Danny Sonner should return.

Doncaster's Roberts brothers are missing, with defender Steve out after suffering ruptured tendons while striker Neil has a broken toe.

Keeper Alan Blayney, signed from Southampton, could make his debut.

cYa All.

[kompressaur]

cheers Gomesh. I dont know how well covered the portvale game is up the thread a bit but i seem to have noticed it mentioned a dip in Doncasters form lately. Maybe it was their heroics in the cup that took it out them and deflated them a bit. Have Vale been missing these players over christmas?

i'll read up the thread.

Doncaster 19/10 with betdirect.

[fasteddy]

Sunderland vs Northwich Victoria


I am looking at the draw in this one....Sunderland are still to win at home...I know this is a different league altogether, but they do have a long injury list,; the players are tired and must be feeling shit. Not exactly the 'glory' tie they may want to get motivated for, plus you have to see this as a potential banana skin for Mick...
Northwich are 3rd in the Conf North, and are handy in scoring terms.

Need to check out team news etc... but a wee shot on the AH +1.75 @ 1.97 may be of interest.

[kompressaur]

i think your all mad Eddy. To me Sunderland will relish a wee break from the league and i cant see them getting beat. I dont know too much about Northwich Victoria mind but to me your all throwing your money away. I hope im proved wrong.

[A.M.P]

Was thinking along the same line FE but I'd wan't a bigger handicapp. Still, I'm just greedy!