Coca-Cola League Championship 14th / 15th May

[GETT1NLOTS]

14 May-12:15 West Ham v Ipswich 2.25 3.25 2.75
15 May-12:00 Preston v Derby 2.10 3.25 3.00

All odds with Bet 365

Place your selections with analysis please.

[crowie]

Again based on RFO 10 year stats for the play offs (see Div 2 thread).

RFO also looked at 6 match form going into the play offs. Over Division 1 and 2 there was no clear trend bar 5 teams with best 6 match form in Division 2 going up.

However the one clear trend was in the now Championship.

The team with the worst 6 match form going into the play offs has never been promoted in 10 years of trying. And the 6 match form for the 4 teams...

Derby 12pts
West Ham 11pts
Preston 10pts
Ipswich 9pts

8 out of the 10 teams promoted from the Championship based on 6 match form have either been ranked 1 or 2 in form tables (4 1st, 4 2nd) - Derby or West Ham.

Ipswich are available at 3.5 on Betfair to lay, based on these form table trends I have

Laid Ipswich at 3.5 for promotion. Risking 7.5pts to gain 3pts.

[christianu]

Nice work Crowie, thought id put up the overall winners odds to keep everything relevant and everyone informed. By everyone i mean all 12 of us

The Championship

Ipswich 5/2
West Ham 11/4
Derby 3/1
Preston 7/2

I see your backing againt Ipswich winning the play offs at around the 2/5 mark. They have the worst from running up to the play offs and i do think thats important but overall this season they are the best team out of the four. No doubt they will be down hearted after missing out on promotion but they may react well and Royle knows how to get promotion, although he isnt an admirer of the play offs. I do agree though that i dont think Ipswich will get past the first round but 2/5 is a bit too low for me.

West ham vs Ipswich

West Ham beat Ipswich over two legs in the play offs last year and remain unbeaten against them this season. Ipswich's attacking football suits West Ham perfectley as they soak up the pressure and have the pace to hit them on the counter attack. Given West Hams good record recentely against Ipswich Backing West Ham to qaulify at Evens seems good to me.

These are just my initial thoughts, ill have to post up the head to heads and other information regarding all the teams when im not so tired!

Oh and our resident CCC expert Keemanan should pop in with his views if he's not too busy. He bets and specialises on only one league yet somehow still manages to get it all wrong

[Keith]

[u]Derby v Preston

I cocked up on the last day of the season by choosing to back Preston @ 4.50. They went down 1-3 (which included a last minute goal). What I did not know until afterwards was that Preston had rested several players.

I can only imagine that this result is what has caused the odds compilers to price up qualification for the final by making Derby clear favourites. Throughout the season Preston have been as good if not better than Derby who may still be without their star forward from Poland.

In the remnants of this season it will be hard to find bets to overboard with but there is probably some value in backing Preston at Evens to qualify for Cardiff.

BTW- my bet on Arsenal to lift the FA Cup at evens is also looking a lot happier after last night

[keemanan]

I like trend myself crowie and normally I'd agree but ipswich have been 3rd a long time now (relatively) and they are expecting the play offs.
I remember when city went up , we were 12 points behind Wolves at one stage but they then lost every game nearly and were devastated to finish 3rd.
They took no orm into the play offs at all. I need to look at their results really but I honestly feel they could beat anyone at Portman Rd by any margin.

Derby are everyones favourites to at least qualify but Preston have some quality players , Nugent I like a lot , a potential match winner.
Their defence is gonna be so important for them and I have a feeling that next year could be their year all in all.
If I was to have a bet at all it would be to lay west Ham.

I wanna check out some more stats to back up my hunches

[keemanan]

oh and welcome to WAS

[kompressaur]

Good to see you WAS. As im in honest mode i have to admit to following most of your value tips alongside my scottish lines for a wee interest outsider line WAS and i'll be doing the same next season.

Play-offs are exciting. Im gonna get into them. Lost a load on bolton one year. 2-0 down after 10 minutes i think and the other team missed a penalty to make it 3-0 i think. Bolton got 2 late ones for et and went through. I done a wad on them that day. About evens i think. Anyhow better luck this year for me i hope

[christianu]

Here are the recent meetins between Ipswich and West Ham

Ipswich 0-2 West Ham (league)
West Ham 1-1 Ipswich (league)
West Ham 2-0 Ipswich (Play-off)
Ipswich 1-0 West Ham (Play-off)
West Ham 1-2 Ipswich (league)
Ipswich 1-2 West Ham (league)

Looking good in West Hams favour, although this is a major blow:

Hammers set to miss Sheri


West Ham manager Alan Pardew expects Teddy Sheringham to be his only absentee for the play-off semi-final first leg against Ipswich.

The Hammers take on Joe Royle's men at Upton Park on Saturday, and Pardew is pleased with the condition of his squad.

He said: "Sometimes it's decided by an injury, a suspension, but at the moment we've come through this game injury-free and we go with a full squad to Ipswich so that's good news for us as well."

20 goals in 26 games for Sherringham, no doubting his influence. Zamora and Harewood isnt such a bad pairing though. Its worth noting that Sherringham was absent in West Hams 2-0 win at Ipswich earlier in the season.

Ipswich are without Scowcroft and Unsworth who have returned from load but i doubt scowcroft will be missed. Theres a lot of negative vibes coming from Ipswich and the opposite from West Ham. Im not sure Ipswich will have the charachter to come through these play offs afterall. They bottled it in the run up to promotion and by all accounts did not play well at Birghton. They also failed to shine against Leeds where they could of overtaken Wigan.

Im gonna stick with West Ham at evens to qualify.

[christianu]

Heres the match report from there last meeting:

NEW YEAR DELIGHT AT IPSWICH

"IT’S a great start to the New Year for the Hammers, after Marlon Harewood’s early strike and a Matty Etherington goal in the last minute earned West Ham United a fantastic 2-0 win over Championship leaders Ipswich Town at Portman Road.

Alan Pardew was without the experienced duo of Teddy Sheringham and Steve Lomas, suffering respectively from ankle and calf injuries sustained at Rotherham on Tuesday. Fit-again Carl Fletcher returned to the midfield after missing two games with a groin problem, while Bobby Zamora earned a recall in attack, starting for the first time in five games.

West Ham made the perfect start to 2005, taking the lead with just 55 seconds on the clock. A short back-pass left Ipswich goalkeeper Kelvin Davis under pressure from the approaching Marlon Harewood, and as Davis tried to go around the Hammers striker Harewood robbed him of the ball and rolled it into the unguarded net.

On 17 minutes Alan Pardew’s side had the ball in the net again. After Zamora had won a free-kick, Etherington’s ball into the box was fired home by Hammers captain Nigel Reo-Coker from close range. But West Ham’s celebrations were cut short when referee Taylor ruled the goal out for offside.

Still Hammers swept forward, roared on by a passionate travelling contingent. Just five minutes later the hard-working Zamora slipped Gavin Williams in, but he shot straight at Davis from 12 yards out. The ball rebounded off the Ipswich goalkeeper and was smuggled clear from the circling Harewood.

With West Ham dominating, Stephen Bywater was nothing more than an interested spectator. He was partially woken after half an hour by a Darren Currie drive from the edge of the area, but gathered Ipswich’s first goal-bound effort with ease.

He then had to be alert to parry a treacherous Currie free-kick that had alluded everyone inside the Hammers penalty box.

Ipswich began to grow in confidence as the half progressed, encouraged by a crackling atmosphere at Portman Road. However, Hammers defence, which paired Tomas Repka and Malky Mackay in the heart of a back four, remained solid to send Alan Pardew’s side in 1-0 ahead at the break.

HT: 1-0

With the second-half just three minutes old West Ham were on the attack again. Reo-Coker found Etherington on the left, whose whipped cross would have found Zamora at the back post had Richard Naylor not intervened.

A similar chance at the other end saw Chris Powell intercept Shefki Kuqi’s cross under pressure from Tommy Miller.

The willing Bobby Zamora earned his fifth booking of the season seven minutes into the second-half for a foul on Fabian Wilnis, and will now face a one-match suspension. However, it failed to dampen the striker’s enthusiastic performance.
The Hammers weren’t the only ones letting their passions run high, though. On the hour Kuqi committed a foul on Carl Fletcher then proceeded to square up to the Hammers midfielder, receiving little reaction from Fletcher and a yellow card for his troubles.

Joe Royle brought on teenager Dean Bowditch for the ineffective Darren Bent, but still it was West Ham that made the running. On 64 minutes another dangerous Etherington free-kick was met by Zamora, but his header went straight at Kelvin Davis.

Zamora left the field seven minutes later to be replaced by Sergei Rebrov, just before Hayden Mullins received a yellow card for hauling down Bowditch.

The Ipswich forward was causing some nervous moments in West Ham’s defence and with ten minutes left he almost wriggled away from Fletcher, before the tenacious former Bournemouth player got back to make a tackle.

Stephen Bywater then had to make a smart block at his near post from Bowditch’s shot on the turn and did well to hold Jason De Vos’ late header.

With just a minute of normal time remaining Harewood’s cross was cleared only as far as Rebrov, who hammered in a shot that Davis could only parry at the feet of Etherington. The winger duly slotted home from close range to get 2005 off to a perfect start with a resounding 2-0 victory."

And the one earlier on the year.

West Ham 1 Ipswich Town 1

"West Ham were unable to keep their lead against Ipswich on Saturday - with a rare penalty miss from Teddy Sheringham letting the visitors off the hook - and the Hammers had to settle for a point which leaves Ipswich above them in the table.
After an anxious moment when Darren Bent had a shot saved from close range by the feet of Steve Bywater, the Hammers opened the scoring when, following a poor clearance of a corner, Chris Powell played Luke Chadwick in, allowing him to cross for Malky Mackay who stooped to head home his first goal for the club.

Shortly afterwards, Bent headed just wide while Marlon Harewood volleyed over at the other end.

Nigel Reo-Coker had a deflected shot brilliantly saved for a corner by Kelvin Davis; from it, Ian Westlake was booked for not being 10 yards back when he intercepted the cross.

The free kick saw Etherington find Mackay, whose header was cleared off the line, and in the resulting scramble Teddy Sheringham's point blank shot was saved by Davis - prompting a handshake from the West Ham skipper.

Then, following another West Ham corner which was cleared, Tomas Repka played a ball to Etherington on the right that he only just kept in with a header.

Carl Fletcher was quickest to react as the ball rolled into the box, and as he latched onto the it, Davis brought him down.

Teddy Sheringham stepped up to take the penalty and struck the ball low and firm...and just beyond Davis' right hand post, to the delight of the 2332 travelling fans.

While West Ham were dominant, it wasn't all one way traffic and Steve Bywater made a great save from a Tommy Miller shot, parrying it over the bar; from the corner that followed, Jason De Vos' header was saved at close range by the Hammers keeper.

Ipswich started the second half brightly, with Bent always a handful; early in the half he hit a stinging shot over and was then denied by Bywater from close range at the expense of a corner.

From it, the man who had supplied the cross for that move, Pablo Counago, struck the equaliser on the turn in a crowded box.

Sheringham, Chadwick, and Harewood all had efforts go wide but Ipswich were standing firm.

They brought on Kuqi and Dinning for Counago and Magilton - roundly booed for comments he had made about Alan Pardew - while Sergei Rebrov replaced Teddy Sheringham and Hayden Mullins came on for the injured Luke Chadwick.

Rebrov's impact was almost immediate as he played Etherington in only for his cross to be glanced at close range by Harewood just beyond the advancing Calum Davenport; if either had connected cleanly it would surely have been 2-1.

There was a smile from the fans just before full time, though, when a ball boy ran on to the pitch to retrieve a second ball - with play going on around him.

Alan Pardew named an unchanged starting line-up and bench following the win over Rotherham in midweek, but Adam Nowland, who got a groin injury in the warm-up, was replaced at the last minute by Steve Lomas.

Former Hammer Kevin Horlock was welcomed back to Upton Park."

[crowie]

From the top

Chris,

West Ham 2.10 on Stan James, 2.12 Betfair at the moment with 2.22 on the lay side.


Was,

Likewise Preston 2.10 at Stan James and Betfair (2.38 on the lay side so certainly some scope for a better price).

I couldn't really seperate Derby and Preston. Up until Derbys losses to Leicester and Coventry they were my fancy to go up. Their performances at Leicester was woeful and losing 6-2 at Coventry.....

Not sure of the relegation issues in these two games and if Leicester and/or Coventry "needed the points". I suppose there was also the Coventry last game at Highfield Road factor as well?

However I am not keen on teams getting beat by big scores and putting in lifeless performances so close to the play offs.

Preston have been great at home this season, only 2 defeats (least in the league) but not so good away.

If Rasiak missing for Derby then it will be a loss, he's done pretty well this season, 16 goals in the league.

H2H's have 3-0 to Preston at home with last weekends 3-1 loss at Derby.

Could be a coin toss between the two and if it is, and if I was forced to bet, then I would have to take the 2.10 on Preston. Will leave it alone though.


Keema,

My first intincts when seeing the play offs were "lay West Ham" as I think they aren't quite good enough to go up. However I have to go with that RFO stat of poorest form team never going up in last 10 seasons.

While not thinking West Ham are good enough to go up (too inconsistant) I was surprised to see they have won at Ipswich (2-0), Sunderland (2-0) and Wigan (2-1) this season. Thats not bad going!

Their home defeat v Sunderland was their only loss in the last 10 game home and away. However in that same period Ipswich have also lost only 1 game (2-0 at Wolves).

As Chris points out thought, West Ham did them at this stage last season and have had the better of them over the 2 league games this season, maybe they just know how to play Ipswich.

I know what you mean about them being there or there abouts all season but I think them missing out on automatic promotion could have an affect on morale. You say they were expecting the play offs but I think they would have possibly being expecting automatic promotion and have to start all over again on the level field of the play offs might take a bit of doing for them.


To be honest I am not actually sure who I see going up. I could make cases for all 4 teams in one way or another so in the end, as I mentioned above, I am going to side with the trends.

[keemanan]

West Ham v Ipswich:
I agree crowie, it's just too close to call with all the teams but I really think Royle would have prepared his team with the play-offs in mind, they were third for the final 5 matches of the season. I mention this not as an advantage to them but moreover NOT a disadvantage if you get my drift.
Of the 4 teams they have played the best football and are capable therefore of beating all of the play off hopefuls.


Form: Not great for Ipswich but not disastrous either, 1 defeat in 10. They finished with the best home record in the division and I'm banking on them to still be in the tie come the 2nd leg. They have been beaten by more than 1 goal 4 times this season however and never by more.

H2H: Chris detailed the last 6 meetings and certainly no bogey element IMO -
Team news: This is interesting from teamtalk, Royle's named a squad for the three matches, a sense of togetherness and purpose must be what he's after

"Ipswich boss Joe Royle has drafted on-loan Monaco midfielder Jimmy Juan, teenage pair Dean Bowditch and Dean McDonald and England Under-21 cap Matt Richards into his Championship play-offs squad.

They join the players who were on duty for the 1-1 draw at Brighton on Sunday, minus David Unsworth and James Scowcroft whose loan deals have expired.

Royle underlined his faith in his players by naming his squad to cover three games rather than Saturday's semi-final visit to West Ham.

Only by beating the Hammers on aggregate would they be sure of winding up the campaign with another fixture, the winner-take-all showdown with either Derby or Preston at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff.

Royle said: "These players will stay together for the final three games.""

None of the players he mentions have played this season.
They have a very experienced squad who wont panic .The game will be decided at Ipswich IMO The crowd at portman road will no longer feel the anxiety of finishing in the top two and will be right behind them in cup tie style IMO
No major injuries that I know of , Kuqi and Bent who have 38 goals this term and Miller who has chipped in with 15 are all fit.
However they'll miss Unsworth on the left and Scowcroft no doubt
Fans: Well I scoured the fans message boards and I got no negative feelings from the supporters of Ipswich, they expect to draw at WHU and win at Portman , well they would wouldn't they.

West ham
Form: I defeat in 10 for the irons too with Sherri figuring heavily on the score sheet.5 defeats by more than 1 goal including a 4-1 thrashing.

Team news: Sherringham , is he gonna be fit? If he plays then the hammers play simple as that if he aint banging them in, 21 so far, then he's sliding Harewood in to score, 21 himself. A massive blow if he's not available, and it appears he wont be there at Upton Park.
This is lame from Pardew

"Boss Alan Pardew believes West Ham hold a psychological edge going into the play-offs over an Ipswich side who missed out on automatic promotion.
Pardew said: "Psychologically it's a blow for Ipswich and they have to pick themselves up this week.

"I don't care too much about the criticism we've received, a lot of clubs would like to be where we are.

"My experience of the play-offs is that you can't read anything into it, but we go to Ipswich with a full squad."

Apart from Sherri of course.
Fans: Well basically they don’t seem confident and they do not like Pardew. Anything other than a win at home will have them in booing mood IMO.

I'm going for a draw first leg and an Ipswich win second leg.
Also 4/5 for Ipswich to qualify (7/10 confidence)

[GETT1NLOTS]

West Ham and Ipswich are two teams that I rarely bet on. Both are capable of beating anyone in their League and getting a gubbing the next day by a Forest or a Rotherham.

When I'm looking at having a bet I'm always on the sniff for value. I can't see any value in any of the odds on offer here. No bet.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Preston have lost less home games in the Championship than any other side going down to a defeat just twice.

They face Derby looking to extend an undefeated home run to 10 games in all competitions, stretching back to the FA Cup Third Round loss to West Brom. Leeds were the last club to win a League game at Deepdale (2-4 on 6 November 2004), since when the Lilywhites have won eight and drawn six.

Preston won the home game earlier in the season by 3-0.

On the injuries front Derby seem to be struggling more than Preston. Preston winger Eddie Lewis is close to returning after an operation on his appendicitis but may not be ready until the second leg and seems to be their only concern.

Defender Graham Alexander is expected to have recovered from a thigh strain sustained at Derby last Sunday. Derby midfielder Inigo Idiakez is out of the play-offs after tearing a groin muscle in training. Striker Grzegorz Rasiak has not yet recovered from a hernia operation, while Chris Makin has a heel injury.

Everything seems to point to a home victory for Preston today and I consider the 2.00 available in places for the home win to be good enough for a small wager.

[ONEDUNME]

Taking in everything that's been written in this thread it seems that Preston are roughly the same price to get to the final as they are to win today.

If you fancy them over Derby then surely the value bet is for them to win today rather than the same price over two legs. If they draw or lose today I would strongly fancy Derby to go through.

As has already been said, the injuries to Derby's two most important players make the Home win today even more appealing.

Can someone cheer up a derby fan please. I haven't stopped crying since the game finished.