Scottish Premier League 11/12 March

[Beanie]

It's been a while since we've had a cracking card...could this be the week?

11 Mar-15:00 Dundee Utd v Livingston 1.57 3.60 5.00
11 Mar-15:00 Dunfermline v Aberdeen 3.00 3.25 2.10
11 Mar-15:00 Inverness CT v Hearts 4.33 3.25 1.72
11 Mar-15:00 Motherwell v Falkirk 1.72 3.25 4.33
11 Mar-15:00 Rangers v Kilmarnock 1.36 4.33 6.50
12 Mar-14:00 Hibernian v Celtic 7.50 4.00 1.36

[Beanie]

Hmmm...perhaps it is.

On first look if Livi are ever going to pick up some points then at a poor United side, who we've already beaten this season, we'll have just about our best chance. United have struggled badly under Brewster, and with Livi showing some promising signs yesterday I think we could well take a point from this one. If United level at around 1.60 on the exchanges I'd be happy to lay them.

I'll let Chips and Milners get stuck into the Aberdeen game.

Is the honeymoon period over for Caley? Difficult to say - by all accounts they played pretty well v Motherwell and were a little unfortunate not to get something so 1.80 doesn't look to tempting on Hearts just yet.

Motherwell have a very decent record vs clubs outside the top 5 at Fir Park, and in particular the bottom 3, hammering Falkirk 5-0 earlier this season. With Falkirk's away form stuttering just now, Motherwell should do the business again, although I'd like slightly more than 1.72 for it. Thoughts steven?

10 straight wins for Rangers v Killie at Ibrox, but 1.36 is woefully short on them given their troubles just now. There's every chance Rangers will be out of the Champions League by then too, and returning after a tough trip to Spain, so if Naismith and Wales return for Killie I'd fancy a lay of Rangers at around 1.40.

[trainbairn]

7/2 is way too big for us. I had this around the 11/8-7/4 price range between us and Well so 7/2 looks massive..

[jbgb007uk]

Well, I am going to go for Livi wth a backup draw bet i think - you must get something there - and a very speculative bet on Inverness as well i think. I will keep away from Rangers and Celtic games as the odds are a bit low on both for difficult games.

Looking forward to more info on the Aberdeen game as well

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by trainbairn

7/2 is way too big for us. I had this around the 11/8-7/4 price range between us and Well so 7/2 looks massive..

I was thinking the same when I first looked at the prices, but looking at the recent form made me think twice and swerve towards Motherwell. Your boys have just 1 win in 16 games, which was 2-1 away vs Livi, while looking at Motherwell's record v the bottom six gives:

P12 W8 D3 L1(5:4 to Dundee United) F26 A11 including a 5:0 win over Falkirk.

For those reasons I would disagree that Falkirk should be contesting favouritism for this one and think that the 1.72 is close to correct.

[milners]

I priced Motherwell at 4/5 so i suppose that makes falkirk around about 3/1 or slighty higher.

Fact is Falkirk has been on the slide in the last 10 games with only 4pts out of it in the league so I would make Motherwell odds on with them getting 13pts out of the same number of games - won 2 out of the last 4 games too.

[Mr Chips]

I'd be pretty confident in taking the 3pts from Dunfermline I have to say. Saturday was the first defeat since Boxing day. Interestingly Aberdeen have only lost 7 all season - 3 of them have been to Celtic who seem to now be a bogey team. Anyway, Dunfermline are poor arent they??? I had hoped for slighlty better than 11/10 but we SHOULD win although seem to have struggled against The Pars and Livi this season. Esson, Byrne, Hart, Nicholson all out. Snoyl a doubt.


On reflection of the Celtic game, even match for 60mins, shocking decision my Foster to pass rather than shoot when scores were 0-0, turning point of game.

[milners]

Right, quick look at the card and Dundee Utd are far too short for a team out of form although i do expect Brewster to win for the first time although it will be scrappy i would think - saying that if Livingston lose they equal the worst ever record which is 10 games on the trot which Aberdeen and Partick hold.

Dunfermline vs Aberdeen - everything points to a Aberdeen win but i'm not sure with the amount of injuries aberdeen has, Nicholson out, Snoyl i'm not sure about but already missing Jamie Smith, Esson and Hart. One thing to note is that the players are on a bonus if they get into the top six which i think it is quite a bit and Aberdeen reckon if they don't make the top 6 and finish 7th it won't make a difference - so take off the old firm game which could be 6,000 extra and also £60,000 bonus for getting there so the players will be busting a gut to get this bonus.

Invernes vs Hearts i'm not sure about - Inverness pretty crap at home and Hearts not very good away from home. Stay away or lay hearts on betfair - i'm not sure.

Motherwell i would fancy to beat Falkirk who are on a poor run at the moment.

Rangers vs Killie, Killie pretty crap at Ibrox are they, Rangers might be tired after Europe maybe worth a lay on betfair???

Celtic are a stupid price and hibs at 13/2 could be a bet for me pure value - Hibs are not a bad side and i think i could be on this as no way Hibs should be 13/2 - yes i make Celtic favourites but not at that price and hibs are massive inho!!!

[trainbairn]

Everyone talks about or slump with only one win in 16 but we really have been totally lacking in luck either in front of goal, in goals(Allan Ferguson vs Hibs) or just no consistency/decisions from referees(Kris Boyd should have walked inside the first five minutes on Saturday but only got a yellow from the useless Charlie Richmond)..In fact, could everyone keep talking about our slump soI can get even better prices about us.I truly believe we should be disputing favouritism with Motherwell who are woefully inconsistent and easily beatable by us.

Steven

The Trainbairn

[Beanie]

Hearts ease Skacel injury fears

Rudi Skacel was forced off against Livingston
Hearts head coach Graham Rix has played down fears of a lengthy absence for Czech Republic midfielder Rudi Skacel.

The 26-year-old injured an ankle during Sunday's win over Livingston and is rated doubtful for Saturday's trip to face Inverness Caledonian Thistle.

But Rix said: "We have assessed Rudi and he has twisted his ankle.

"We will have a better idea about how the injury is in the next two or three days. He is a fit boy, though, and we don't expect him to be out for long."

Meanwhiile, Hearts captain Steven Pressley came through his first training session for a week.

The Scotland international was forced to withdraw from the squad for the friendly defeat by Switzerland last week due to a virus.

But the 32-year-old has shaken off the effects of the illness to make his voice heard in training.

"He must be nearing fitness because he was moaning about my refereeing," joked Rix.

Jim Duffy was on Scotsport last night stating its almost certain that Skacel will miss out v Inverness.

[Beanie]

And from the look of the highlights, I think the case for Livi being able to take a point at Tannadice is strengthened. Hearts looked pretty fortunate to take the three points, gifting some superb opportunities to Livi who were a lot more lively than usual. Dundee United were picked apart pretty easily by Hibs and still seem to be lacking the organisation in defence.

[crowie]

Some prices from RFO

Hearts are 2.05 at Hills, more sensible than the 1.72 above. 365's 4.33 the best price on Caley.

Dons are 2.38 at Skybet with the Pars 3.10 at Hills.

Livi are 6.00 at Skybet and the 1.57 Utd is the best you will get from RFO's 5 prices.

Motherwell's 1.72 is the best about and the Bairns are 5.00 at Corals/Sky.

Rangers slightly bigger at 1.40 than the 1.36 above (Corals/Lads), Killie 8.00 with Hills.

Celtic a more realistic 1.53 with Lads and surprisingly 365's 6.50 isn't beaten, Lads go 4.50.


First thoughts are that if Bet365 hold that price on Celtic then their AH on Hibs must be approaching +1.25 and given you can change their handicaps for reduced prices then you won't be far away from getting Hibs +1.5 at a decent price IMO.

[frank_owen]

I am thinking of going £50 on Rangers at home to Kilmarnock

[milners]

Originally Posted by Beanie

And from the look of the highlights, I think the case for Livi being able to take a point at Tannadice is strengthened. Hearts looked pretty fortunate to take the three points, gifting some superb opportunities to Livi who were a lot more lively than usual. Dundee United were picked apart pretty easily by Hibs and still seem to be lacking the organisation in defence.

Going with that Highlights again Hibs are massive at 13/2 from Bet365 and i'll be surprised if thats going to get beaten. I'm already on 3pts with it may lay it off on betfair to 1pt if i feel like it and as Crowie said it will be interesting to see the asian handicap on it.

[trainbairn]

Motherwell Vs Falkirk

I have been banging on about this all week long, but how any bookmaker is accepting bets on the Home side at ridiculous odds of 4/7 etc beggars belief.Everyone reckons just because Falkirk have only won one game in the league this calender year that we will automatically be push-overs this weekend.Absolute nonsense.We have faced a tough enough schedule since beating Livingston at the end of January with Celtic and Aberdeen away from home(Lost 2-1 and 1-0) and Hibs and Rangers at Home(Drew 0-0 and lost 2-1 with an own goal) in the month of February. Yet, in all those games it could very well be argued that we were the better side in at least two of those defeats(Aberdeen and Rangers) whilst pushing the top two footballing sides in the league very close before getting beaten.From the side that ended the year against Dunfermline so badly we have jettisoned most of the older guard of the squad out to lower league clubs(John O'Neill, Andy Thomson, Scott Mckenzie) and have been missing Craig Ireland from our defence which is no bad thing considering he is slower than a week in jail.With a settled back four now and youthful bite and agression in midfield in Patrick Cregg and Liam Craig coming in from Arsenal and Ipswich respectively, we really only miss having the pace of Darryl Duffy up front to have a team capable of far better results than we have shown.We have also had very little luck in front of goal or from refereeing decisions all season so if the saying is true about luck evening itself out over a season we are due a massive slice of it pretty soon.Motherwell have looked both the best side we've played all season and the worst side we have played all season in the two games so far and it is that inconsistency with them that makes them opposable.I priced up this game at around 6/4 each of two so to be able to take advantage of Coral's 4/1 looks like Christmas has come early on a FALKIRK victory.We only need 3 wins to survive and I can see the first one coming on Saturday in front of a bumper crowd as the price is only £8 to get in(A rareity nowadays) for Charity.