England v West Indies : Cricket

[Pie-chucker]

A few unusually sure-footed punts yielded 142 pts, but still down on series. Going to be tough to find red ball value until the Indians get here.

[Swooperman]

3rd test starts thursday at Old Trafford.

Accuweather is saying ok during playing hours but rain overnight friday & saturday, & then a bit of drizzle around on monday, so looks set for a result as again I'd think 350 overs should yield one.

England have named an unchanged team:
1 Alastair Cook, 2 Andrew Strauss, 3 Michael Vaughan (capt), 4 Kevin Pietersen, 5 Paul Collingwood, 6 Ian Bell, 7 Matthew Prior (wk), 8 Liam Plunkett, 9 Steve Harmison, 10 Ryan Sidebottom, 11 Monty Panesar.

WIs have tons of problems really tbh, although theyve scored a few runs in the tour game at Durham Uni last weekend. Morton got a double ton & Ramdin a single but as theyre certainties anyway theres nothing new there. Obviously WIs miss Sarwan & although Chanderpaul didnt play at Durham, if fit hes a definite. If Chanderpaul doesnt play it looks like another hammering & I suspect only he & Morton of the available batsmen have the temperament to play an innings that WIs need to compete in this test. To put that into context re: Gayle, its the same argument as Alec Stewart scoring an England ton in the 90's, he could get it in 3 hours & England would still be 250 all out, whereas if Atherton got one he'd bat the day & England would get 350 & be in the game.
I dont like the odds on offer & I'll have a scout around, but my suspicion is that Harmison was beginning to look threatening at Headingley towards the end (granted 10 days ago though, hardly yesterday) & if he is beginning to look under threat then he'd pick either Old Trafford or Chester-Le-Street to put that right. Ones his home ground & the other he has a good record on, including destroying Pakistan last year

[Pie-chucker]

Yeah, a bit of 'outside the box' thinking required to find value.

What's bloody Vaughan on about now? 'Fredalo incident ruined morale'. I would have thought his leaving 20 hittable balls in a row off Pollock & chums hardly had the dressing-room dancing up and down.

[Pie-chucker]

1.45 England at Centrebet. It's not a bad price considering. Should be pretty safe. Donald's had about 20 mins with Harmison and will be hailed as a miracle worker if Harmie comes good, which he might. Not as much lift at this time of year, don't suppose, but memories of his 11 wkts (and MoM) at OT last year might spark a revival. Cook's had only one test knock here (same match v Paks) and scored 127.

England win @ 1.45 at 50pts
Harmison MoM @ 16-1 at 7pts (Lads)
Cook MoM @ 14-1 at 7 pts (SJ)

Both MoM prices look more than fair if you assume there are only 11 winning team contenders.

[Swooperman]

Quite a high % of draws here though but I'm going on the fact that it'll be a green livelyish deck as reported & back England to have too much firepower.

1: Result by tea day 2 @ 80/1 Sp.Odds 1pnt
1a:Result by blose day 2 @ 33/1 Sp.Odds 1pnt
1b:Result by tea day 3 12/1 Sp.Odds 2pnts
2: Bravo WIs HS @ 15/2 Sp.Odds 1pnt
2a:Ramdin HS @ 16/1 Sp.Odds 1pnt
3: a 6 on day 1 @ 5/4 Sp.Odds 4pnts
4: 1st day ton @ 7/4 Sp.Odds 2pnts
5: Harmy perf.81+ @ 5/6 B365 6pnts

[Swooperman]

England close on 296-7 after day 1.
Strange day in many ways. WIs were poor in the morning yet positively exemplary between lunch & tea 112-1 first session, 55-4 second session, 129-2 in the evening.
The WIs seamers did the job in the afternoon by keeping it tight, leading me to the conclusion that its not a pitch that a batsmans really in on unless the bowling is loose, & there was some steepling bounce at times that would have made a Harrier jump jet proud
It wasnt a warm day today so the cracks wont have widened too much whereas its supposed to be better tomorrow. WIs trouble is that with Bell still in on 77* then 350 is still a possibility, & my gut feeling is that is a match winning score with these attacks.
Fidel Edwards has added a bit of fire to the attack but hes been getting bounce from a short, skiddy action, whereas Harmison (although the age old question is 'If' ?) will have the height to get nasty bounce. Theres a greenish tinge to the deck & OT is often referred to as a tall mans track, & on a normal day I'd back Sidebottom to be as tight as Sammy & Collymore were in the 2nd session.
The time to get on was when Collingwood was out & Betfair touched 1.7, but unfortuneately I was driving, but I'm tempted with 1.46 although I think I'll resist, but I think WIs will concede a good 100 runs on first knock & if England get 350 I wouldnt even discount the follow on here

[keemanan]

I hope so swoops as I'm there tomorrow and to be honest I'm as giddy as a schoolgirl about it, I sense 350+ here myself

[Swooperman]

Edwards hitting Harmison on the dumpling might not have been the best idea I've ever seen either

[Pie-chucker]

This is the same strip as last year v Paks, if it's of any relevance.

England managed 228 in two innings against the Windies here in 1988.

3rd TEST: England v West Indies at Manchester, 30 Jun-5 Jul 1988

Can, I'm afraid, see a similar fate for Windies.

[Swooperman]

England 1.07 on Befair tonight, 175 ahead with 9 in hand & tbh I'll be pretty surprised if the ask isnt 400+, & quite frankly, WIs have no chance in this test.
If either Harmison or Plunkett had bowled anuthing like I thought the follow on could be an issue but they were all over the place, but so poor are WIs even that was enough

Interesting news regarding the WIs board 'vetoing' Chris Gayles selection as ODI captain should make for a good atmosphere

[Pie-chucker]

Drivel! Not you, Swoops.. the cricket. Missed the evening session but the rest of the day terribly poor. Suppose it was entertaining but so is a trapeze act when everyone keeps falling into the net.

Suppose I'll make a few bob out of this but it seems like false pretences.

[Pie-chucker]

Chance to make some good money if Monty doesn't wholly dominate the wickets column. (Cook MoM). Otherwise this test just seems to plod on. Hope WI can keep resitance up until tea, to give the Sunday crowd a bit of a day out. Not quite OT 2005, eh?

[Pie-chucker]

Strewth a 'proper test match' has appeared from absolutely bloody nowhere. Windies at 3-1 too short to take for bet protection (and surely not needed) but will be watching with interest -- at last -- today.

[Pie-chucker]

Hmm... Cook gets 50 + 100 + 4 catches; Panesar 10 wkts (5 tail enders) + 1 dropped catch yielding 100+ runs and the MoM goes to... bloody Monty! Cost me 98pts. Oh well, I would have given it to Shiv anyway.

8.5 pts profit (whoo-hoo).

[mullet1984]

Originally Posted by Pie-chucker

Hmm... Cook gets 50 + 100 + 4 catches; Panesar 10 wkts (5 tail enders) + 1 dropped catch yielding 100+ runs and the MoM goes to... bloody Monty! Cost me 98pts. Oh well, I would have given it to Shiv anyway.

8.5 pts profit (whoo-hoo).

Monty Monty Monty Monty!!!

Unlucky good bet though.

What is interesting is the expekt market, top bowler. Rather than 1st inning their market is match wickets, which with the same prices as other bookmakers 1st innings doesn't take into account the spin factor of the 2nd innings. Monty was available at 3/1 to take the most Windies wickets, worth looking at for the next test.

In addition, the draw has been backed in from 7/4 to evens.

Following report from sportinglife

There's been a major plunge on the fourth and final Test between England and the West Indies ending in a draw.

The match gets under way at the Riverside on Friday, just four days after England sealed a 2-0 victory in the four match series by winning at Old Trafford.

And it's a dodgy weather forecast - as well as reports about a batsman-friendly pitch - which seems to have sparked the support.

Rain is forecast for the next few days and it all means the draw is now into no better than 11/10 with BetFred having been freely available at 7/4.

As a result an England win has drifted from around 4/7 to as big as 11/10 with Ladbrokes while the Windies are 18/1 with bet365 for a consolation success.