England v West Indies : Cricket

[Swooperman]

I couldnt be backing a draw in England at those prices I'm afraid

Theres plenty of reasons why not & my argument is more 'against the draw' rather than 'backing a win', but fair do's, heres Accuweathers exact forecast on the grounds postcode:
AccuWeather.com - UK & Ireland Postal and City lookup 3QR&metric=1

(I used to be able to copy & paste them on here & I havent changed anything so the never ending fcuking about with the forum must be to blame for that )

Essentially, the gist is: its raining now & will do so wednesday & thursday with the odd thunderstorm, but playing time friday seems ok. Theres a bit of thunder around saturday & then rain sunday morning, monday has a mix of cloud & rain & tuesday is just cloud.

Now, obviously the forecast will change as we go on but consider this: WIs made a decent fist of chasing a mammouth target here but this is what makes them a nightmare to bet on. Have they turned the corner ?? Probably not, they batted well at Lords & then promptly got bowled out twice in under a day in effect at Headingley, so take their 'improvement' with a pinch of salt.
Harmison is on his home ground & is showing signs of improvement. Mentally theres obviously demons there but he tends to bowl better when he trusts the other bowlers, in effect Freddy & Hoggard...well, Hoggy returns & Plunkett has gone & this can only help.
Ok, so we accept this forecast as good, say England bat on day 1 which is supposedly ok & get bowled out for 300-350 in seamers conditions (& its raining all the way into the test...if it wasnt dry on sunday, it wont be by friday !!) We then accept tuesday will be ok as well, therefore theres 3 days worth of play to bowl WIs out either once under 150 in English conditions in stop/start scenarios which can only help the bowlers, or bowl them out & then bat again. Lets not forget as well that the follow on could be reduced to 150 if a full day is lost. WIs have already gone twice in under a day in seamers conditions & its not stretching it too far to suggest it could happen again here, & I'm saying only a days worth of play in 3 days could do it

[Pie-chucker]

Suppose it could be said WI batsmen are eventually adapting to the conditions, and Monty. Yeah, Harmison will appreciate Hoggard's return. I wonder if England might stick them in, as it would seem the best way weatherwise of forcing a result. Yeah, England have the only spinner but this also means batting last holds no concerns. Anyway, could be good toss to lose.

[Swooperman]

Ok, 4th & final test starts tomorrow. Weather forecast is poor, depending on where you read your forecast theres a supposed possibility of no play on the first 3 days, whereas other sites have only drizzle. Indeed, Sporting Odds offer only 4/7 on friday being washed out without a ball bowled.
The draws trading only around the 1.3 mark & anybody who thinks thats value in this country quite seriously needs their head examining. I detailed why I wouldnt get involved in an earlier post when the draw was evens but the England odds have seriously tempted me
My reasons are along these lines: WIs batted well at Lords as they did 2nd time at Old Trafford, but 4 days later they batted abysmally at Headingley. Chanderpauls had only 3 days to recover & has all the pressure on his shoulders. Theres controversy over the one day captain with the touring selectors threatening to resign if their recommendation, Chris Gayle, isnt appointed. Hoggard returns for England. Harmison showed decent fire at OT & is on his home ground & will also be boosted by the return of Hoggy.
I havent got a special weather forecast that nobody else has, I just think the odds are wrong. England are decent & have strengthened their attack, whereas WIs are pretty poor & may also miss Sammy after an encouraging debut. Yes play will be lost but even if a whole days play is lost there are good points with play going on later on other days & the follow on being reduced to 150. Chester-Le-Street is a modern ground & drainage should be half decent.
I honestly feel that this could well be seamers conditions & with Hoggy & Sidebottom swinging it & Harmy on home ground I can see a low scoring contest, & wouldnt be at all surprised to see England skittled either !!

Lay draw @ 1.37 Bfair 11.1pnts to win 30pnts
Eng win @ 4.3 Bfair 7pnts
Eng 1st inns under 200 @ 16/1 Lads 2pnts
Eng 1st inns 200-250 @ 10/1 Lads 2pnts
Eng 1st inns 251-300 @ 6/1 Lads 2pnts
WIs 1st inns under 150 @ 6/1 Lads 2pnts
WIs 1st inns 151-200 @ 6/1 Lads 2pnts
Bell HS @ 6/1 SJ 1.5pnts
Colly HS @ 6/1 SJ 1.5pnts
Prior HS @ 16/1 Sp.Odds 1pnt
Bravo HS @ 8/1 SJ 1.5pnts
Ramdin HS @ 16/1 Sp.Odds 1pnt
Hoggard MoM @ 12/1 SJ 1pnt
Sidebottom MoM @ 16/1 SJ 1pnt
Harmison MoM @ 10/1 SJ 2pnts
Gayle perf, under 81 @ 5/6 B365 12pnts

[Squiddly Diddly]

Hi Swoops,

With you on the draw price. It was similar at Headingley with all eyes on the weather and the Windies lost the Test in little over 200 overs, leaving the draw backers high and dry.

The forecast isn't the disaster everyone thinks - it's more a problem for the midlands/east midlands rather than the north east of England and the moisture and cloud will aid the bowlers.

Good luck with your selections.

[Pie-chucker]

Looks like today's a washout (4.00am UK) but I suppose the match odds already reflect this. But two full days Sunday & Monday and 6 hours managed over the wet days could be enough for a result. Looks like the result betting has been hijacked by amateur weather experts (3-1 ON in places :wasntme) rather than cricket cognescenti. To prove I am neither...

Windies win @ 30-1 at 3pts
Windies win @ 6-1 at 3 pts (draw no bet)[/b]

Can't resist the Sporting Odds offer. IF Powell and Edwards go well in tandem for first time together in tests this tour, IF Morton can get his head down, IF WI get the better of the conditions... There's a big gap between these sides obviously, bigger when the Eng new ball blokes are on song, but WI are improving, adapting. Fcuk it, 30-1 is too big. Fairly confident of this below getting my stakes back as (agree Swoops) England could struggle to make 280 (Harmison at 8 not the least reason).

[b]Windies 1st innings lead +150.5 runs @ 3-5 at 10pts


see what happens .

[Pie-chucker]

bugger it... let's bet on weather! The Ground will do everything to prove ground(staff) efficency etc and surely bloody long light right up until 6.30pm so from prime forecasting point here in Hong Kong...

1 ball to be bowled first day @ 3-1 at 4pts (sporting odds)

[Hippy Dave]

Ok, well if play does finally get under way at some point it's time to look at making some money.

2 tests played at Durham

England v Zimbabwe - England recovered from 156-5 to post 416, before bowling Zimbabwe out for 94 and 253.

England v Bangladesh - Bangladesh 104, England 447/3d, Bangladesh 316.

All that says to me is that there have been a couple of mismatches. Time to look at what's been happening there this season in the Championship.

Durham 407
Kent 400
Durham 319-6
Kent 169

Yorkshire 393
Durham 481
Yorkshire 218
Durham 131-4

Lancashire 367
Durham 312
Lancashire 310
Durham 229-9

Not particualrly conclusive - doesn't look like a pitch where you're going to roll a side over in the first innings, but my instinct says that England could do exactly that if they win the toss and bowl.

[Swooperman]

WIs 137-4 after losing the toss, but were 55-4 & really their main hope in technique & experience in Chanderpaul is in along with the strongest spirit in Bravo.
Obviously we're entering day 3 & common sense says that if Chanderpaul falls early England are in business, but if he doesnt & WIs double their score it looks difficult...but this lot have Taylor, Collymore & Edwards in the last 3 !!
Englands plan will be to be ahead or level by the close tomorrow, & if that is the case theres a good chance of a result as the pitch is showing uneven bounce & mevement, which is hardly surprising after being under covers for a week

[Swooperman]

157-5 after 45 minutes this morning, with Bravo being pressured out. Samuels is in with Chanderpaul & hes hanging in there but its tough for him. If England can seperate these 2 they'll have high hopes of batting after lunch because although Ramdin can bat the 3 after are pure unfiltered garbage Surely number 9 is not Collymore scheduled position
Getting WIs for under 200 is the key, because even though I dont see England getting a big score a lead of just 50 could be crucial in this type of match. As I said earlier though it wont be easy for England & Collymore could be difficult on this track I feel, & WIs could be in this game yet.
The new ball is crucial, as is the first 15-20 overs, as the balls getting soft quick due to the damp & making penetration difficult.
Whilst Chanderpaul stands, WIs arent out of this:

WIs win @ 44.0 Betfair 2pnts

[Pie-chucker]

160/5

Tickle on the spreads. Movement in the air but pitch benign.

BUY Windies runs @ 270 at 0.30pts

[Swooperman]

At 265-9, that looks a decent bet Pie
As you said, the pitch does look benign, & only a hard new ball is getting life out of it. On the plus side, the ball should get softer later as the match progresses

Hmm, England aiming to be level by lunch tomorrow now possibly ?? I wouldnt rule out an attacking declaration :wasntme

[mullet1984]

Originally Posted by Swooperman

At 265-9, that looks a decent bet Pie
As you said, the pitch does look benign, & only a hard new ball is getting life out of it. On the plus side, the ball should get softer later as the match progresses

Hmm, England aiming to be level by lunch tomorrow now possibly ?? I wouldnt rule out an attacking declaration :wasntme

That is an excellent point. West Indies worth backing.

Can i put that forward as post of the month

[Swooperman]

Hmmm, England 121-4 & those 3 late wickets have brought WIs back into the match in a big way in my mind
Only 2 days to go but they can certainly play until 7pm tomorrow weather permitting, & theres obviously a few that disagree with me but the draw trading at 1.17 now is surely unbackable, madness even :wasntme unless it rains of course
Strauss has batted at a fair pace & England have looked to be aggressive & tbh the scoreline flayyers the WIs bowling which has been pretty poor...I mean, its a seamers track & Gayle has bowled 5 out of 34 overs although Bravos obviously struggling.
Its hard to read the card as Hoggard is one of the wickets, but you have to take into account that England have their longest tail probably of this decade. Also the value of KPs wicket in the scenario of a good run rate looking to get into a good position for a possible declaration, is invaluable for the WIs.
Working on 90 per session for England, unless bowled out I think they'll look to bat until tea & parity or a small lead. Then I think they'll have a go at WIs in the extended final session & realistically be looking for 4 or 5 wickets to go in overnight. England wont be overly worried about losing if they bat until tea tomorrow as realistically the best they can hope for is to bowl WIs out in 2 sessions, meaning if they cant chase the runs they'll back themselves to bat out the final 2 sessions against this attack without too much alarm.
For WIs to win they need early wickets & to bowl England out in a session & a half tomorrow, & although tonights wickets will boost their confidence, they need to massively improve.
Theres a lot of cricket left in this test yet if the weather allows it. I've got the draw layed & both sides backed but unless WIs go through England in the morning its hard to see them winning, whereas Englands ace is that if they get Chanderpaul early, everyone knows WIs could go like a pack of cards

[Pie-chucker]

Seems evenly balanced to me, shading Windies way with KP gone. Runs on the board are runs on the board. Therefore don't understand the England/Windies odds discrepancy after Day 3, or at least the size of it.

Fairly happy with my originial WI bet, and can't be arsed to cover on England.
Perhaps because weather probably will have final say. Though certainly not touching a draw bet. Still crazy odds!

[Pie-chucker]

England first innings under 320.5 runs @ 5/6 at 12pts Bet 365

Long way to go. Also agree with the challenging declaration principle.

There's a chance, another big IF, that Gayle might play a long awaited innings, a 60 off 52 balls second innings.

28-1 is still too big on Windies with Bet365. Bigger on Betfair.

Windies win @ 28-1 at 2pts

Continue to plough in small stakes.