India in England

[Swooperman]

Draw 2.62 @ Betfair 20pnts

Fcukin' turncoat

[Colbro]

Be strong Sewoop and don't bet on the draw based on weather forecasts - Its madness I tell you.
I have been looking at this link almost hourly today

BBC - Nottingham - Weather - Rain

[Swooperman]

Accuweather has now changed to rain on saturday & sunday overnights but no rain during scheduled match playing time

[Pie-chucker]

2.60 ish is a good enough price, though. But not enough to suck us canny punters in, eh Colbro!

You'll need runs, Swoops. Is there a double ton somewhere in the India middle order?

Think Vaughan will go well, looks in good nick and good record here. Collingwood might struggle again (fatigue) and there's probably 5 match wickets in Kumble. So, for me:

BUY Vaughan perf @ 90 at 1pt
SELL Collingwood/Kumble perf @ 16 at 1.5pts

As for the match result, fcuk knows.

Bat first, or bowl? Tricky.

[Swooperman]

I'm in for the trade Pie

Bell Eng HS @ 7/1 Sp.Odds 3pnts )looked in good touch in both brief stays at Lords)
Karthik Ind HS @ 6/1 B365 3pnts
Sidebottom 1st inns wkts @ 5/2 B365 4pnts

[Swooperman]

Told you it was wet

Draw 1.99

[Swooperman]

England 101-4 after losing the toss & a 3pm start. Light should hold tonight for a 7:30 finish & still 22 overs left. Cook still in. Balls moved around off the deck & in the air (not so much)
India took a gamble with the ball as it will have got soaked before long on this outfield, & it wasnt really fit to start when they did.
Betfair have the draw favourite, just, @ 2.8, England 2.88 & india 3.35
This reflects confidence that Englands bowlers are more suited to these conditions, & more consistent.
I'm quite happy at the moment as I see it like this:
I heard an interview with the groundsman on TMS before play. He said the pitch has been under cover most of the last 4 days so although its dry on top, it has moisture. Virtually no rain has been forecast during playing time, but its supposed to hammer down saturday night, up to 10mil !! The water table is very high & yesterdays rain wont have drained to that extent so we could lose a lot of play on sunday.
I believe this pitch will dry as we go, whilst being played on...as its mainly going to be covered whilst not. Therefore, if England back themselves then its not a disaster conceding a lead as I can quite possibly see this being a 225, 325, 425 type pitch, peaking in the 3rd innings on day 4. Therefore setting India a tough 4th innings chase on a pitch beginning to wear.

Just a theory, but I like it

[Colbro]

Yeah - don't do it Pie. It's madness I tell you.
Trying to be clever and hoping trends from previous games would repeat and I lost sight of the blindingly obvious

[brimson]

Looking grim for England now....

[Pie-chucker]

Spreads have England innings at 202-208, or about 35 more. Could be valuable runs but double-edged sword. Would probably mean ball is not doing as much as yesterday.

England have to hold every catch, plain and simple. No dropping Jaffer (Prior) very early and see him make a scratchy fifty. Not with this total posted. As for the thought of giving Dravid a life...

England can get right back in this but they'll have to be at the top of their game.

[Pie-chucker]

Some rain overnight. Hard to tell how heavy at this distance!

hope we get a before lunch start as this is interesting. New ball due and Donald's boys (Donald an increasing influence one suspects) will have to be spot on early. Test of Vaughan's nerve. give monty 3 overs to start with and aggressive in field placing.

I'm at a bloody loss for an in-running bet right now.

[Tricky]

There was very little rain here in Notts last night. Play to start on time.

Forecast today is for isolated showers this afternoon. So could be a bit hit and miss mid afternoon, probly when England are beginning their 2nd innings.

Monday is expected to be dry all day, as is Tuesday if required.

I have a Monday ticket, and my record in watching England in tests over last 12 months reads won nil, drawn nil, lost 3 so far!

[Super_Sammy]

Tendulkar got a poor decision.

[Pie-chucker]

[quote=Pie-chucker;433799]

BUY Vaughan perf @ 90 at 1pt
SELL Collingwood/Kumble perf @ 16 at 1.5pts

Need Vaughan to do an Atherton rearguard that time in SA and

Collingwood c & b Kumble 0

would help

4/7 India looks bloody generous to me. But will stick with spread exposure.

[Swooperman]

India 1.85 now on Betfair, 2.32 the draw.

Having played both days of the weekend for a change, I havent watched all of the test as much as normal, but here are my thoughts:

England are 129-1 & 154 behind at lunch, & Strauss & Vaughan have produced a good effort this morning. The balls moving around a lot though & you have to feel that the England seamers would take wickets in these conditions, so the Indians are either poorer or just unlucky. I pointed out that I felt the pitch would improve through drying out as the match went on & quoted it was a 225, 325, 425 wicket & therefore England could bat themselves out of trouble in the 3rd innings. Obviously India did better than I thought with 481 & it just remains how much of the decent batting time I envisaged for England was used by India. I'm not sure the wicket will deteriorate as people think as it was obviously damp to start with & will have been heavily covered each night, recreating dampness which could well hold it together.
Assuming England bat the day with no interruptions they'll be up to 50 ahead tonight, & I'd say they certainly cant afford to be more than 4 down, preferably 3 to stand any chance. That means only another 2 wickets today. That is the key & I think theyre mentally tough enough these days to be able to do it, but when you talk about it in these terms it does look a bloody long tail
I'm happy enough to sit on my 20pnts on the draw