Series starts thursday at Lords. Not had a major look around at odds yet but
Stan James go:
Series: England Evs, Draw 2/1, India 11/4
1st Test: England 2/1, Draw 8/11, India 9/2
Betfair have the draw at only 1.7
This is going to take quite some thought, & the 1st test may come down to a leave alone or just in-running for me tbh. The draw was as short as that in the final test vs WIs & I layed it quite comfortably, but obviously India are likely to be a different animal entirely.
Weather at NW8 currently looks like this on Accuweather:
monday & tuesday: rain
wednesday: thunderstorms
thursday: ok but rain overnight
friday: ok
saturday: rain
sunday: thunderstorms
monday: ok
....so, we've likely got the age old problem that there might be only 300 or so overs which with it being India would immediately put you off a result...but the covers are likely to be on all week going into the test so it could well be a spicy track !! Also the fact that Lords drains superbly these days has to be taken into account, but on the other hand the amount of rain we're getting is virtually unprecedented in even an English summer, & it certainly hasnt happened since the new drainage was put in so its an unprecedented situation
So the long & short of it is I'm getting nowhere fast
Ok, lets look at the teams:
Strauss has got runs in the 2nd innings in the Lions match which makes certain his place, although that Chelmsford pitch was known to be as placid as fcuk going into the match & common sense says Lords will be very different. Flintoff is not ready to return yet & although Harmison is in the squad hes unlikely to be fit with his hernia problem, & it appears that England will play the existing 10 plus either Broad or Anderson, presumably depending on the hardness of the pitch on thursday morning.....if they think there'll be bounce then Broad will debut but if its softer & overcast then presumably the more skiddy Anderson will get the nod. This then, is how I see it:
Strauss, Cook, Vaughan, Pietersen, Collingwood, Bell, Prior, Broad, Sidebottom, Panesar, Hoggard
If you remember in the last test at Chester-le-Street, much was made of Harmison batting 8. Another reason why Broad is likely to get the nod in Harmys absence is that he can hold a bat as proven by his fifty in this Lions match, although as I said it was a placid pitch, which does though make his 5-for more impressive
.GIF "Thumb(1)")
Of the last 3 series India have played in England the score reads: Eng 3, India 1, drawn 6. One of the Englan wins was at Lords in 2002 where again there was no Harmison but Hoggard took 7-120. He again is the likely main threat here & of course he is backed up by the similar (but left arm) Sidebottom. Its interesting that the Lions fielded Broad & Tremlett & nobody similar to the first 2 mentioned.
I suppose that the other possible change is that if its really wet England may opt to play 2 of Harmison, Broad & Anderson & drop Panesar.....but I must admit I'd be surprised at that what with Monty being recognised as a match winner these days, together with having bowled decently in India last year.
Onto India, which is somewhat more complicated
Obviously everybody knows about the ageing but powerful upper to middle order & I would suggest that the central axis of Dravid, Tendulkar & Ganguly is a given, although Ganguly is one of the few to have done nothing so far on this tour. The whole point though is one of experience of English conditions, & these 3 plus kumble have it in droves, making them certainties. This also means VVS Laxman will get his spot although the amount of times that I've read hes facing 'a make or break series' is laughable.....his record stands up & hes toured here before, making 43* & 74 in the Lords test of 2002, so thats 3-6 sorted. Personally I'm a fan of Yuvraj Singh but hes only played 19 tests over his career & he cant cement his place. I would pick him but by the sound of his interview after the Lions match he knows hes not making it, & the fact he played both warm up matches means the jurys out on him, & with scores of 31, 18. 59 & 6* he hasnt converted starts. I believe his best chance probably rests on Laxman having a poor first 2 tests or the openers having a nightmare start. He may also have had a chance if Dhoni didnt bat well vs the Lions but his 76 will secure his berth. Anybody thinking dropping Dhoni is absurd needs to realise that the reserve keeper is Karthik, who is inked in to open with tour scores of 76, 33, 5 & 51. Hes also scored 63, 38, 56. 22 & 129 since reclaiming his test place with all but the 38 made as opener.
The dodgier opener is Jaffer whose tour scores are only 12, 4, 1, & 22, but he has 2 tons in his last 3 tests although one was against Bangladesh who appear to be falling apart quicker than a labour manifesto, but this is tempered by the fact that he bagged a pair in the other Bangles encounter. In all, Karthik & Jaffer have opened together 5 times & have 2 stands of 150+, so they will start, particularly as Jaffers toured England before, although Gambhirs 81 vs Sussex means they'll be quietly looking over their shoulders.
I suppose Yuvraj does have a chance of playing if India opt for safety first & play 7 bats + Dhoni, but obviously this will mean only Khan + 1 seamer & Kumble with back up from Tendulkar & Ganguly. I'd find that doubtful but I wouldnt totally discount it as its a back to back test & India have lost the 1st test on all of the last 3 tours here, costing them the series twice
Kumble will obviously bowl loads of overs & would do even if they were playing in a marsh, & in 3 Lords tests he has 9 wickets @ 40.22 but if he gets it right then he'll be dangerous as he gets his wickets through bounce & not turn & obviously the Lords slope could provide him with both, & Khan is a certainty. Personally I think Sreesanth will be his partner & although Pies seen him bowl since I have, personally I like him as I think hes got a bit of fire & he will learn as he goes. That leaves 1 spot betwen Sharma, RP Singh & Bose. Sharma is tall but not particularly quick, Pie says he doesnt look test class & all I've heard about backs that up tbh. Singh is the likelier of the 3 to play you'd think, particularly as he outbowled Bose against Sussex, but I have a sneaking feeling for Bose tbh. He hasnt played a test but at 28 he seems pretty old, particularly for an Indian seamer, to be touring England unless theyve got a plan & intend using him. I'm not saying common sense always applies here but he has got a good domestic strike rate & took 57 Ranji Trophy wickets last season which has only ever been beaten before 5 times, & believe it or not has never ever bowled a front foot no-ball in over 10,000 deliveries
Maybe hes more for the ODIs, but I sense a plan
I dont think they intend playing 2 spinners at any point in the summer we're having, & I only think Powar is here for the ODIs.
Therfore, I think India will be:
Jaffer, Karthik, Dravid, Tendulkar, Laxman, Ganguly, Dhoni, RP Singh/Bose, Kumble, Sreesanth, Khan
It looks pretty strong in the batting, particularly from 3 down, & I read an interview with Goochie suggesting that the ageing Indian superstars still have a lot to give considering he himself scored over half his test runs after the age of 35, but theres 2 ways of looking at it. An England tour is quite often seen as the perfect end to a test career & although I dont think Dravid could be looking at it that way, theres a possibility of Tendulkar & Ganguly eyeing it up, & Laxman as I've said never seems to be too far from being dropped. On a dry deck its hard to see India being skittled but there wont be many dry decks in this summer & although a lot of the main bats have played here before its not impossible to see them being routed on a green pitch.
A lot depends on the England bowlers, as if they get it right, & Hoggard & Sidebottom rarely dont in this country, they can go through anybody in these conditions. The difference being I feel that England have to bat badly to be routed by India on English pitches. Broads inclusion will be interesting & personally I'm looking forward to him playing (if indeed he does) I think hes a very positive player & I think he has a sense of the big occasion, & a home debut at Lords is certainly that !! After saying that India will be grateful if Harmison doesnt make is as he showed signs of clicking again towards the end of the WIs series & had been bowling well for Durham. Hes a hard bloke to understand at times but when hes gets it right hes horrible to face, enough even that I have it from the horses mouth that theres one Warwickshire batsman of recent years who even feigned a knee injury to avoid being picked to face him at Chester-le-Street
I'd agree with Pies shout at England, 1 or 2 nil....but Lords is hard to call & I'm tempted to have a small draw lay, but hey....its India & not WIs
India in England
