ICC Cricket World Cup

[Hippy Dave]

No problem, as you can see I didn't bet on it, all I said was if I had to I'd be on the other side to you.

[Swooperman]

Originally Posted by Hippy Dave

Saying someithng is a xx pitch is just a cop out, and the easy option by commentators trying to simplify things to armchair viewers I'm afraid

That is totally wrong. I've worked on cricket wickets for 15+ years, at various different grounds. When a groundsman has been at a place long enough, captains (home obviously) often ask the groundsman what he feels the wicket will play like, whether it will come on for the quicks, deteriorate, spin etc....& they ask what its felt a par score will be, as its felt he'll know better than most. The answer takes into account the length of outfield (both cut & distance), the amount of rolling, whether its a used track & the amount of work gone into it, watering etc.....that is part of cricket & has been for as long as I've been involved in it. The commentators are ex-pros, they use the same jargon.

[Swooperman]

Ireland v SA

Handicaps too small I feel, & I'm worried enough about Smith going out slapping to leave the +30.5 on the 15 overs. Ireland dont tend to get bowled out so it was worth it against England but SA ?? Nah !!
Cant see Ireland having much chance here tbh but I guess you never know, just feel the fact they scared SA in the warm ups means forewarned is forearmed Niall O'Brien is worth backing again I feel & Ntini should use this as a confidence booster

Match 31
1: N O'Brien HS @ 5/1 Lads 4pnts + 1pnt match runs @ 20/1 Lads
1a:Botha HS @ 10/1 Hills 2pnts
1b:Johnston HS @ 16/1 SJ 1.5pnts
2: Kallis HS @ 3/1 Hills 6pnts
2a:Prince HS @ 20/1 SJ 1.5pnts
2b:Gibbs HS @ 6/1 SJ 4pnts
3: Ire openers under 10 @ 5/2 B365 4pnts
3a:Ire openers under 25 @ Evs Cbet 15pnts
4: SA openers under 25 @ 7/1 Cbet 2pnts
4a:SA openers under 10 @ 10/1 B365 2pnts
5: N O'Brien perf 31+ @ 5/6 B365 6pnts
6: Ntini perf.40+ @ 8/13 B365 13pnts

Finished -19 on NZ/Bang

[Colbro]

It will be interesting to see what SA do tommorrow if they win the toss.
NZ boosted their run rate considerably today and SA must be wary of that. If they win the toss they will probably put Ireland in just in case run rate does become an issue.

I've gone for another sell of the multi fours in this game at 360. The other three games at this ground made up at 252,288 and 128. Sri Lanka only scored 16 fours on what looked a slow pitch (although opinion is divided ) and the outfield was particually slow after plenty of rain. The weather forecast has plenty of rain for tonight and cloudy conditions for most of the day. Hopefully SA will do the job and win the game quickly.

[Pie-chucker]

Boucher dismissals in SA's 4 WC matches so far:

Caught
0-1-0-2
Stumped
0-0-0-0

Will he get a bat here?

If he does I'll look at buying runs as insurance 'cause I'm going in big.

Boucher perf under 40 @ 5-6 at 66pts

[Pie-chucker]

Watson out for two weeks with ankle problem.

"This is a serious blow to Australia's qualifying chances," says punting pundit Mr Swooperman. "He is the team's go-to bowler, the one any batsman just looks to survive against."

[Pie-chucker]

If there is the full allocation (50 overs) per side, Spin go SA/Ireland 100-115.

To sell Ireland if the Oirish bat first, you can't lose. If SA bat first they could bang up a big score. And the spread thought becomes whether to buy SA runs near the beginning of the innings.

SELL SA/Ire @ 100 at 1pt

Bloody heck, now I'll have to stay up (here) and watch the game.

[Pie-chucker]

So to collate these bets and thinking, and add one:

Boucher under 40 pts.
Ireland bat first he won't get a bat unless promoted

Sell Ireland on spreads at 100
Ireland bat first this can only win or evens

Sell multi-fours @ 360 at 0.5Ireland bat first then they will go the nurdling route to 220.

Will SA put Ireland in? Think SA want to do the biz, control the game/rain, squeeze and then knock em off.

Will Ireland put SA in? Think Ireland would rather rely on the collective nerve of their bowlers to defend 220.

could go mostly right or rather wrong.

[Hippy Dave]

Swoop, I'm not arguing that people use the term, just the validity of it. I think it's very lazy, and means nothing, you don't.

Pie/Colbro

I'm glad you 2 have posted up on the multi 4s market in the SA/Ire. I've been thinking about this market for several hours now, and I couldn't quite make up my mind on it.

My initial thoughts were that the long boundaries and a minnow playing in this game added up to a sell.

Then I remembered that Ireland are actually very useful against seam/pace bowling, and that's pretty much all SA have got, so a buy might be profitable.

But now, the added factors of possible rain, and the fact that I think SA will bowl first if they win the toss (after their experience in the warm up match) is leading me to a sell too.

Sadly, you 2 and your big stakes have pushed the price down to 340, but I still think it's worth a sell.

Could be a very profitable/loss filled day in this thread

Sell multi 4s, SA v Ireland, 0.5pts @ 340.

[Hippy Dave]

Selling multi 6s also, 3pts @ 12, Ireland don't have massive hitters, and these long boundaries could find them out.

[Colbro]

Sadly, you 2 and your big stakes have pushed the price down to 340, but I still think it's worth a sell.

Lol - The price did not move when I bet. It was only after Pie posted that the price collapsed

Thats three of us sweating now then.

The price for the multi fours has slowly been dropping since the super8's began. I think it was as low as 270-340 for the NZ Bangladesh game. Suddenly it has gone right up again.

[PMJOB]

I have been avidly reading this thread and there is some very good info. I see that there is a rain delay, 20 overs each side and that multi 4s will be a very nice bet indeed!

I assume no adjustment by the spread firms?

[PMJOB]

Pie-chucker the spread changed to 200 - 240 before "the off" did you take your profit?

[Colbro]

Hi Pmjob - nice to see you posting.

The only firm offering Multi fours is Sporting Index and the market gets suspended about half an hour before the start. It is settled on the official result.
Whilst the shorter game would be nice it was only a very small consideration in taking the bet.

[Pie-chucker]

Hi PM,

Some judicious spread sells - multi-fours being good (best?) one - always worth a dart if you can predict the skippers' inserting or batting intentions in a 'minnow' game and the weather not great. As here. Spin pay out on these on any official result.

That said, last line of Colbro above absolutely right.