ICC Cricket World Cup

[Pie-chucker]

Dry season generally in Windies.

Read somewhere Joyce and Egg Shells will open again v Aus in warm-up but suppose Strauss and Bopara will get a game in the XIII.

Haven't looked too hard, but it seems spinners are getting more than fair share of wkts in these warm-ups.

NZ beaten by Banglas! Good! Better a team gets a bit of a wake-up now rather than just a stroll in the park.

[Swooperman]

Fcuking hell, what a donkey I can only apologise & say it was late when I posted that

I'm not vain enough to edit or delete & I think the gist was correct, but obviously on the odds quoted you wouldnt cover the 3/1. In practice though it would pay off as I'll hazard a guess you'll get double those odds on Betfair, & also those Bet365 odds are the first out. Theyre pretty stingy on Bangladesh I reckon, although yesterdays win over NZ will justify it I suppose

I know what I meant & I stand by it

[Colbro]

Pinnacle have an interesting market on highest team score and under 400 runs is currently available at 2.12.There have only ever been 4 scores of 400 or more in ODI's, three of them in South Africa and one in Holland. All these have been made in the last 12 months.The highest ODI score in the West Indies is 338 made by Zimbabwe v Bermuda in a tri nation tournament in 2006. This was at Port of Spain in Trinidad. The next highest is 333 by West Indies v Zimbabwe at Georgetown Guyana.There were no real high scores in the warm up matches just passed and the pitches seemed quite slow. The players seemed content to amble between the wickets rather than run. I guess that this trend could continue in the group games as players will conserve energy for the super 8 games after.Certainly the stats suggest the 2.12 for under 400 is good value.For reference the highest scores by ground areSabina Park Jamaica 287-6Warner Park St Kitts 245 (Only one game has been played here)Beausejour St Lucia 303-6ueens Park Trinidad 338-7National Stadium Grenada 288Kennsington Oval Barbados 313Guyana and Antigua have new grounds

[Computer Guy]

I dont fancy that. All it takes is one of the minnows to decide to field first and that 400 could look very small with someone like KP, Gilchrist etc etc. on song.

[Colbro]

Well - it was a bit tidier when I typed it - don't know what happened

[Swooperman]

I've got to agree with CG there I think, if SL can score 440 odd against Holland then they could do something very nasty to Bermuda
I know I keep banging on about the new grounds but when the minnows are playing, ie the 1st round, its established grounds mainly. The new grounds are basically being used in the warm ups & the super 8's, so its difficult to judge, especially as some of these grounds arent massive by any stretch

[Pie-chucker]

Cor blimey, there are so many tournament bets/specials it's hard to get your head around it all. Also, for most of it, the dosh is tied up for 7 or 8 weeks.

Lowest scoring side could get nobbled for 35 very early on but until the Windies/Sri Lanka is finally over you don't get the dosh.

I'll have a look at the spreads where you can trade in and out, and leave the heavy hitting fixed odds to the bloke who now wishes he had a Bermudan Mum... Swoops.

[Pie-chucker]

SA/Oppo is 340-390 winning margins
NZ/Oppo is 150-200 (by comparison)


I think the SA+ margin is a bit ambitious.

---

Aggregate opening partnerships can be sold at 3,100 runs.
51 games, 102 opening partnerships that wd have to average 30.

I also think this is a sell. But obviously something you'd have to keep a very close eye on.

[Swooperman]

Bet365 I think are asking if there'll be a double ton in the tournament. Theres never been one before & the odds are 9/4 yes & 1/3 no......I was thinking of a decent bet @ 1/3 tbh, as against the fact that its small grounds the wickets will get slower as we go on. I think its a very good chance of no, but am I willing to throw 100pnts at it ??

At the same token theyre offering under/over 174 @ 5/6 the pair. Thats a tight call IMO

The more I go on the more I like India & Sri Lanka, which is a shame as theyre in the same group so onlyone can go through with points. Thing is that I can see either winning 4 in the Super-8's......I've backed both, & i've layed Australia @ 3.4

My full list will be up in a day or 2 Pie, then you can have a good old laugh

[Swooperman]

Under/over 735 wides ?? Blimey that'll take some research

[Swooperman]

Warm ups are getting a bit more serious now with Australia vs England tomorrow.
Fletcher reckons hes not bothered result wise but I'd think thats just words tbh. Its not the be all & end all but its momentum & simple as....

Vaughan only fielded 10 overs on tuesday so that should be interesting & Strauss is likely to miss out again......should be worth watching if not for betting on.

http://blogs.cricinfo.com/meninwhite...ven_dwarfs.php

The above is worth reading as the writer basically dismisses West Indies chances whereas I'm not so sure myself

[Computer Guy]

Fletcher is talking out of his ass imo. Nothing he would like better than to stick 1 over on the Aussies and keep the momentum going between the 2 sides.

[Swooperman]

This is worth noting from Stan James:

Top Batsman Bonus
Place a bet on a Top Batsman market in any match in the Cricket World Cup and if you win, we'll credit you with a free bet to the same value for the Top Batsman market in any other World Cup match. Max stake £50. Click here.

[Swooperman]

Didnt really finish going through all the big teams but as we're getting close now I'll move it onwards & give my current thoughts.
Its interesting to note how the wickets are making an impact on even the warm up games with play being stopped at one point during yesterdays South African innings due to the batsman complaining about the pitch. That was at Sir Frank Worrell Stadium which is brand new & I cant emphasise enough how much I think the new wickets will affect the tournament in the super-8's, to the extent that although its a league system the best team might not win the tournament.

All the warm up games have now finished with all sides having played 2 games, you can get too carried away with this type of thing but it'll be useful to have them all here as I go through the teams:

Bermuda v England at Kingstown - Mar 5, 2007
England won by 241 runs. England 286/8 (50 ov); Bermuda 45 (22.2 ov)

Ireland v South Africa at St Augustine - Mar 5, 2007
South Africa won by 35 runs. South Africa 192 (50 ov); Ireland 157 (44.2 ov)

Scotland v Sri Lanka at Bridgetown - Mar 5, 2007
Sri Lanka won by 159 runs. Sri Lanka 294/7 (50 ov); Scotland 135 (41.2 ov)

West Indies v Kenya at Greenfields - Mar 5, 2007
West Indies won by 21 runs. West Indies 268/6 (50 ov); Kenya 247/7 (50 ov)

Australia v Zimbabwe at Kingstown - Mar 6, 2007
Australia won by 106 runs. Australia 290/7 (50 ov); Zimbabwe 184/7 (50 ov)

Bangladesh v New Zealand at Bridgetown - Mar 6, 2007
Bangladesh won by 2 wickets (with 6 balls remaining). New Zealand 226 (47.2 ov); Bangladesh 230/8 (49 ov)

Canada v Pakistan at St Augustine - Mar 6, 2007
Pakistan won by 77 runs. Pakistan 273/8 (48/48 ov); Canada 196 (46.4/48 ov)

India v Netherlands at Greenfields - Mar 6, 2007
India won by 182 runs. India 300/9 (50 ov); Netherlands 118 (37.5 ov)

Bangladesh v Scotland at Bridgetown - Mar 8, 2007
Bangladesh won by 7 wickets (with 95 balls remaining). Scotland 152/9 (50 ov); Bangladesh 156/3 (34.1 ov)

Bermuda v Zimbabwe at Kingstown - Mar 8, 2007
Zimbabwe won by 6 wickets (with 126 balls remaining). Bermuda 136 (50 ov); Zimbabwe 137/4 (29 ov)

Canada v Ireland at St Augustine - Mar 8, 2007
Ireland won by 7 wickets (with 139 balls remaining). Canada 115 (32.5 ov); Ireland 116/3 (26.5 ov)

Kenya v Netherlands at Greenfields - Mar 8, 2007
Kenya won by 9 runs. Kenya 274/8 (50 ov); Netherlands 265/9 (50 ov)

Australia v England at Kingstown - Mar 9, 2007
Australia won by 5 wickets (with 55 balls remaining). England 197 (48.3 ov); Australia 200/5 (40.5 ov)

New Zealand v Sri Lanka at Bridgetown - Mar 9, 2007
New Zealand won by 18 runs. New Zealand 285/8 (50 ov); Sri Lanka 267 (48.2 ov)

Pakistan v South Africa at St Augustine - Mar 9, 2007
Pakistan won by 7 wickets (with 33 balls remaining). South Africa 199 (48.3 ov); Pakistan 200/3 (44.3 ov)

West Indies v India at Greenfields - Mar 9, 2007
India won by 9 wickets (with 189 balls remaining). West Indies 85 (25.5 ov); India 86/1 (18.3 ov)


My thoughts

......on South Africa Many considered SA to be the real deal in this WC, having taken over the number 1 spot from Australia & coming in with good form. Theyve been the real losers in the warm ups, losing to a Pakistan side that appeared rank outsiders & prior to that having the life frightened out of them by Ireland. Theyve got a good seam attack with Pollock, Ntini, Kallis & probably now Hall after hes been their one star so far. Its a good attack for the uneven wickets I expect in the 2nd round but as has already been showed their top order isnt firing & have they got the change of pace that other teams will utilise as the wickets dry out ?? Theyve been reduced to 91-8 & 27-3 in their 2 games & although I expect the likes of Smith, De Villiers & Kallis to improve on that they dont look value to me. I dont think their bowling will suit all the conditions that they'll meet & in a very even WC I wouldnt want to be backing them at anything under 8's pre-tournament. Their best hope is that they steamroller the 2 minnows before they play Australia & grow into the tournament. They need to beat Australia for 2nd stage points as I think it will be a tall order to win 4 of the 6 needed to qualify otherwise


......on Australia Big favourites & possibly so as theyve been the best side for a long time now. Although we all laughed when first England & then NZ hammered them recently it has to be remembered that it was a weakened team against NZ & a complacent one against England......& neither will happen in the WC. They hammered England yesterday more comprehensively than the 5 wickets result showed, but England didnt turn up & I dont think it gives much insight into Australias chances tbh, although it may say a lot about Englands The batting is still awesome & theres no problem there at all. Hayden & Gilchrist are as commanding as ever & Ponting remains the best in the world. Theyve got good back up in Clarke & Hussey & the returning Symonds & Watson add the acceleration. The problem is that there will be collapses in this WC, for all sides, & I'm not certain that the Aussies bowling is good enough to bail them out when this happens. McGrath is slipping away & although he still has good days, I'm certain in my own mind that Stuart Clark should have been picked ahead of him. Brett Lees injury remedied that problem & I'm sure that if Australia are to defend their trophy that Clark will be a large part of that. Mitchell Johnson is ok but I'm not certain that hes in the first choice X1, but Tait & Watson are in my mind not good enough for this level with the ball. Tait cant bowl to a field although he will get the odd wicket through pace, & although Lee could be expensive, the 2 arent comparable in my mind. Watson just does nothing with the ball, hes cannon fodder....particularly if a team like SL get off to a blistering start against the openers. Theyre still the favourites & someones got to beat them, but like SA I'm not certain their slowies are up to it either, although theyre streets ahead of SA in that department. I've layed Australia twice now & I remain convinced they wont win it without a lot of luck, & theres no way on this earth I'd back them at 3.3 in this tight a contest. Ridiculous odds


.......on Scotland Theyre improving but I dont see where the weight of runs can come from to test either of the big guns in their group. They'll be ecstatic just to beat Holland & avoid 250 run massacres against the others.

.......on Holland Personally I think their bowling is better than Scotlands & on the right type of wicket they could be a little tricky. Theyve got some decent batting at the top but little strength in depth as was proved when they fell from 215-3 vs Kenya & failed to chase 274

[Swooperman]

My thoughts.....

......on Sri Lanka Genuine contenders in mine & many other eyes as the price is falling on Betfair. Lost the 2nd warm up game to New Zealand but they rested both Vaas & Jayasuriya for that match. They have an outstanding top order with Jayasuriya giving them the chance of a blistering start & a massive total. His opening partner Tharanga has really come of age in the last year & these 2 are followed by Sangakkara who is quite simply an exceptional player in both forms of the game. Jayawardene & Atapattu follow them & although theyre not in the best of form they are tried & trusted performers. The weak spot before I think has been the middle order....what if they lose early wickets ?? Well, Chamara Silva has emerged from a prolonged introductiojn to world cricket & is averaging 55 in his recent ODIs to add to his maiden test ton in his 2nd test in NZ. I really think he could be a star in this tournament. The bowling is exceptional with the ever reliable Vaas backed up by Maharoof & Malinga, both of whom have had good years & I can see Malinga in particular doing well on these wickets. Muralitharan & Jayasuriya provide the spin & theyve got Bandara in the wings if another is needed. The batting might not quite be in Australias class but in my eyes the bowling is quite superior


....on India As I fancy Sri Lanka I have to fancy India as they bat deeper. Their top order is quite superb with Ganguly opening with either Sehwag or Uthappa followed by the likes of Dravid, Tendulkar & Yuvraj. Karthik may well be batting 6 or 7 which gives them real strength in depth with the murderous hitting of Dhoni to follow. Even if they dont open with Sehwag I see him batting lower down as they need his bowling. The key to this WC I feel may well be the way teams can take the pace off the ball in the 2nd innings as the pitches dry, not to mention used, worn pitches, & after Pathan, Khan & Agarkar India have Harbhajan backed up by 3 or 4 decent part time spinners. My favourites


....on Bangladesh Wont be taken lightly by either India or Sri Lanka & will feel they can beat one of those to make it to the 2nd stage. They would seem to be the best chance of an upset & are improving all the time, but in truth I dont see them beating anyone but Bermuda


.....on Bermuda Out of their depth by a long long way. Only won 1 match in a year since qualifying & the fact they've had a strict curfew imposed upon them may tell its own story. The other minnows at least look the part but at least half of this lot are overweight & look like village players. Leverock can bowl pretty decent but if the big guns get hold of him then I can see utter carnage & if the first total of 500 is to be made in this WC, it'll be against this lot, & the prospect of a 350-400 run defeat is real