BDO World Darts Championship 2008

[Hippy Dave]

Simon Whitlock 4/9
Fabien Roosenbrand 2/1

Andy Boulton 9/4
(7) Ted Hankey 4/9

(6) Co Stompe 10/11
(11) Brian Woods 1/1

(3) Scott Waites 2/5
Remco van Eijden 9/4

Whitlock v Roosenbrand
Roosenbrand deserves credit for beating the much talked about Anderson on his WC debut, but in reality it was missed doubles by the Scot that gave Roosenbrand the match. An average of 84 is ok, but nothing to shout about. Whitlock only managed 86 though, and so the 4/9 looks about right.
A better bet looks to be Whitlock to hit most 180s @ 8/15. He managed 5 in just 15 legs in round 1, whereas Roosenbrand didn't look to be a heavy scorer, hitting just 1 in 20 legs.

Boulton v Hankey
Hankey did his usual routine - brilliant in some legs, dreadful in others, so it's difficult to read too much into his 85 average. I didn't see the Boulton match, but an 82 average suggests Hankey should win this., but the price isn't attractive.

Stompe v Woods
Both players impressed in R1, but Stompe had a much easier task. Woods averaged 6pts higher, but as Stompe wasn't really pushed he can be pleased with 90. No bet for me.

Waites v van Eijden
Not much between them on the averages in R1, but I feel Waites has another gear still, and given the odds, so do the bookies. No bet.

Simon Whitlock to hit most 180s 10pts @ 8/15 (BlueSq)

[Bigkegman]

nice write ups dave.

whitlock would be the only one to tempt me with a punt. if the boo boys go out to get hankey again then the 9/4 could be appealing. in running bet could be interesting

[Beanie]

Masterclass from Hankey at the moment - some clinical finishing.

4pts Hankey @ 12.50 - if only because I think he'll trade lower after the match punters have a look at the outright market once the match is over.

[Beanie]

Sod that, lay it off straight away at 11s as Hankey is beginning to go to bits. Just fortunate that Boulton is even worse.

Whitlock finally found his 2nd gear earlier today but got off to a slow start...this tourney really does look wide open at the moment.

[Beanie]

Looks like you've saved your book nicely there Dave.

This is getting tough - nearly every player has looked very dodgy at one time or another, and most of them brilliant at times as well.

Anyway, quick run through as I see it now:

Webster - Eased to 3rd fav after his stop start performance v Moody. Question is whether or not it was the pressure of the situation or Moody's bizarre style(a lot of crowd interaction and very, very slow) which put him off. Whatever, if he can reproduce his R1 form he can win this tournament, if he reproduces R2 form he's on his way home.

Fitton - Big Scoring, and even hitting his doubles now - but I still doubt he can continue that when under pressure. He's looking better than ever, but I still can't see him going all the way - even if reaching the final I'd expect a bit of a bottle job.

Adams - Hugely overrated by the market IMO. He's a solid player, but not magical - will hit his scores and hit his doubles, and probably the player you would want onside against a dodgy sort, but there are so many players left in the draw that could blow him away that I cant see why he is near fav.

Thornton - Solid player, enjoys his darts, and the type of player that can cause Adams big problems IMO - got the occasional bit of magic about him, backed up by consistent scoring.

Hankey - Showed today why he is a contender with the most consistent doubles performance of the tourney so far - up over 75% at one point, which no other player could lie with. Dropped his level after that though - and that's the problem as the format gets longer - doubts over maintaining his form.

Whitlock - Got going eventually today, but not the performance I was expecting. Still think he has a near 100 average in him, but tricky tie v Hankey coming up and will need full game to be firing.

Woods - Looked a little less assured today, but his doubles pulled him through a tight match with Stompe. With many others showing frailties, that alone gives him a realistic shot.

Waites - Very dodgy at times v Van Eijden who let him off the hook with a huge amount of missed doubles. Doubt his ability to put together a complete game consistently which he'll need to do to win.

-----------------------------------------------

So Adams too short, Thornton, Woods, and possibly Fitton too long imo.

For the semis, I'm expecting Fitton to survive a tight one with Webster who should enjoy the faster paced match a lot more, but prob no bet for me on that one as the odds look right.

Thornton to beat Adams will prob be my main bet - both solid players but Thornton has a bit more about him and his greater ability to throw 11, 12 and 13 dart legs should give him the edge for me.

Whitlock Hankey - toss a coin. Hankey to start the better, Whitlock to come back at him as he finds his game, and then all depends on how Hankey reacts. Money to be made in running IMO but will leave from the off.

Woods to beat Waites - a jittery match decided on the doubles, which I'll give the edge to Woods on.

Punts tomorrow.

[Beanie]

Just match odds punts for me at this stage - prob some more outrights after these.

For the reasons above i've taken 2.32 on Thornton to squeak past Adams(just starting now), and also Hankey at 2.08 as I think he should be fav(but not by much.)

[Hippy Dave]

Unlucky on those Beanie. They were both 50-50 matches in my eyes before they started, so nothing wrong with those bets.

[Hippy Dave]

Well, I'm pretty much back to level after that previous bet. Can't see any value in the match odds for tonight's 2 QFs.

On the 180s side of things, Waites has hit 4 in 40 legs, Woods 11 in 38.

Brian Woods to hit most 180s 10pts @ 8/11 (Stanjames)

[Beanie]

Yeah, had them both down as 50-50, although still have Whitlock on the outrights so that softened the blow, espeacially as he was so good.

Thornton had his chances, but fair play to Adams, even though I really hate the fucker! I think he'll beat whoever he plays in the semi, and run into Whitlock in the final.

Tonight, odds look right to me on the Fitton match - have him on the outrights too so no punt, same story for woods really as I have him as well. GL for the 180s Dave

[Beanie]

Thought Fitton might go one more round before chucking in a bottle job - looks like he's gonna go for it tonight tho. How can you go from being that good to that bad

[Hippy Dave]

Not watched this so far, how's Webster playing?

[Beanie]

He's ok, both are scoring consistently, but Webster's poor doubles finishing currently edges it over Daryll's abysmal doubles finishing.

[slick]

I thought Fitton looked the only player like winning this comp b4 tonights game as he had been playing so well but after tonights abysmal performance the comp has been thrown wide open and anyone could win it allthough i have to say Webster and Whitlock were my picks from the quarters and I wouldent be surprised to see them meet in the final.

[Hippy Dave]

Simon Whitlock to hit most 180s 5pts @ 2/1 (Stanjames)
This is a huge price - it's as short as 11/8 elsewhere, and even that looks big. Whitlock has hit 0.25 180s/leg, Woods 0.26/leg. Nothing in it, and Woods is never the 4/7 shot that he is in places.

Whitlock/Woods 15+ 180s 3pts @ 11/8 (Stanjames)
Handicap is -1.5, so looking at 10-11 set, 40-44 legs. They're hitting 0.51 180s/leg, so could quite easily get to 20 180s between them. 11/8 a silly price IMO, although it does depend on a closish match.

Mark Webster to hit most 180s 5pts @ 6/5 (Stanjames)
Webster 0.21 180s/leg, Adams 0.14/leg, price looks big, simple as that.

[Hippy Dave]

Simon Whitlock outscored Woods somkething like 8 to 3, that 2/1 really was massive. The total 180s lost, but Webster hit more than Adams, for a tidy profit +13pts on the day, not far off 20 for the tournament.