Here's some thoughts from my blog...
3 English teams made it through to the Champions League Quarter Finals last night and another 3 will be bidding to make to the same stage of the
UEFA Cup, alongside Scottish representatives Rangers, tonight.
After the euphoria of their Carling Cup win, Spurs were brought crashing down to earth with a 4-1 thumping at the hands of Birmingham City on Saturday. They will need to up their game considerably tonight against a PSV Eindhoven side who are at a different level to anyone Tottenham have faced in Europe so far this season. The Dutch side are 6 points clear of rivals Ajax in the Eredivisie and disposed of Swedes Helsingborgs in the last round after dropping out of the Champions League after the group stages. As for Spurs, well Juande Ramos doesn’t need to prove his cup credentials to anyone and he’s yet to lose a cup match as Spurs boss so far. He’s looking to make it 3
UEFA Cup wins on the trot following two successive wins with Seville. Much like fellow Spaniard, Rafa Benitez at Liverpool, he seems tactically astute at winning cup ties (OK, apart from against Barnsley!) and if anyone can mastermind Spurs past the Dutch giants then Ramos can. If this was a one-off cup tie I’d be very tempted by the 9/2 (NPBet,
William Hill,
VCBet)on PSV to win at White Hart Lane (as I think they’re probably akin to the likes of Everton and you wouldn’t get as big as 9/2 on them winning there) but given that it’s over 2 legs I’d probably shy away from that one.
On the night I think there will be goals - aren’t there always when Spurs are playing? If you fancy it too then back over 2.5 goals at 17/20 with
PartyBets. Looking at the tie overall, I can’t believe that Spurs are just 4/7 to qualify. We’re looking at the likely Dutch champions against a team that will finish no better than eighth in the Premiership here. I’m going to have some of the 6/4 (BetDirect,
Betfred,
BlueSq,
Coral,
Ladbrokes,
Skybet,
Stan James,
VCBet,
William Hill) on PSV to make it to the quarters as that price will almost definitely be shorter by 10pm tonight.
Everton face a very difficult match in Florence against an in-form Fiorentina tonight. The Italians have lost just 1 in 7 and recorded a fine 3-2 victory in Turin against Juventus at the weekend. But who would bet against David Moyes’ side at the moment? I’ve no doubt the Toffees will go there with the aim of keeping a clean sheet and finishing the job off at Goodison. The bookies certainly seem to think it will be a low scoring affair and have Under 2.5 goals at 4/6 (Bet365,
BetDirect,
Betfred,
BlueSq,
Paddy Power,
Stan James). I tend to agree and think the Italians will play a slow tempo, measured game that will suit Everton’s more defensive line-up on the night.
Gary Megson’s Bolton have surprised many to make it this far in the competition and will fancy their chances of going at least one round further. They’ve proven to be a stubborn team to break down since Megson took over at the Reebok and their counter-attacking ability might just stand them in good stead against Sporting Lisbon. Sporting have had a disappointing season in Portugal by their own high standards. They currently sit in 4th place, 17 points behind leaders Porto so will be looking to the
UEFA Cup as one of their few chances of silverware this season. I’m really not sure which way this one will go so I’ll take notes for the return leg.
In Germany, Werder Bremen look the only team capable of mounting a challenge to Bayern Munich’s seemingly relentless charge to the Bundesliga. They sit second, 4 points behind the league leaders and recorded a much needed 2-0 win against Dortmund at the weekend. They’re a strong outfit with the likes of Mertesacker, Diego, Frings and Klasnic all likely to cause Rangers trouble at Ibrox. But the Gers should be able to take hope from Werder’s poor recent away form - just one win the last 5 and that was at Braga in the last round. Bremen also failed to record an away win the Champions League group stages, losing 3-0 to Olympiakos in the process so Rangers may just fancy their chances of grabbing a victory that will give them something to hang onto in the away leg. Walter Smith will probably stick with his 4-5-1 formation that has served him reasonably well in Europe this season, and look to shut out the Germans. Again, Bremen will be a stern test for Rangers - they’re a Champions League team in my eyes and I think it will be the Germans who will progress (1/2
Centrebet,
VCBet) to the quarter finals but tonight Rangers might just pull off a narrow victory (33/20
Centrebet) given Bremen’s patchy away form.
Elsewhere in the betting tonight, I fancy Benfica will get the better of Spanish side Getafe. They’re the right side of evens at 11/10 with
Centrebet and
Sportingbet and worth a small punt. Bayern Munich should also take a first leg lead back to the Allianz Stadium by beating Anderlecht in Belgium but at 8/11 (Bet365,
BlueSq) they’re a bit short, especially when you consider that Aberdeen held them to a 2-2 draw at Pittodrie in the last round. It might be best to sidestep that one.
UEFA Cup 6th March 2008
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