Champions League - Tuesday 26th July

[kompressaur]

odds from victor chandler

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Must say that Liverpool aren't going to have it all their own way like these odds suggest.

Am i right in thinking that this is the same Kaunas side that has given the Lithuanian side basically their starting 11 down the years? And if so, do they still continue to as Lithuania are a side on the up and have had some great results in the last year or so and are improving all the time.

Kaunas seem to have a great home record also and score goals for fun so the over 2.5 goals bet could be a cracker.

No real value in these early rounds so im looking for some long shots.

Thun are another interesting prospect after coming off a great 3-0 victory over Basle on Saturday and again, their odds are far to big.

Kiev are still a useful side and Ukraine is always a hard place to go to but they aren't a patch on the sides they have produced down the years.

Be interesting if any of our European counterparts could fill me in on some information on these sides as i don't know much, if anything about them at all.

[TheGooner]

I do like the look of Thun with a +1.5 goal head start on the asian handicap ...

You collect if they can avoid a 2+ goal defeat. Price is nearly even money at 1.95 (err 19/20 to the fractional mob)

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Yeah - that would be the safer bet.

Has the Ukraine league started or has been playing? Be interesting to see what their level of fitness is.

Welcome to the board Gooner - i couldve sworn i have seen you around the past few days, but then i see that you had signed up today. Hmmm - maybe my talent ot see into the future is beginnning.

[Beanie]

Great to see you across Gooner

Kiko...there has been three rounds of the Ukranian league(started 12th July) and 2 rounds of the Swiss Super League(started 16th July.)

For the record - Kyiv drew 1:1 at home with Metalurg Zaporozis (big scrabble score!), won 2-0 away to Arsenal Kiev, and beat Stal 4-0 at home.

Thun beat Aarau 2:0 at home, and Basel 3:0 at home

[PTDSEI]

I`m liking Valerenga to beat Haka @ 2/5

According to various reports Haka were lucky to progress this far and the norwegian league is vastly superior to the Finnish one. Both teams are fully fit mid season so there are no advantages here for either side. I just fancy Valerenga to go to Finland with an advantage:

LAST 6 MATCHES
Valerenga 2-1 Hamarkameratene 23/07/2005
Valerenga 3-0 Odd Grenland 04/07/2005
Rosenborg 2-3 Valerenga 27/06/2005
Valerenga 1-2 Viking 18/06/2005
Lyn 1-1 Valerenga 12/06/2005
Valerenga 1-1 Start 30/05/2005
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nice and unbeaten there.

I`m gonna chance a Home win here with Big stakes. Anybody wanna put me off?

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Nope i wouldnt be put off by that.

Valernga are in a far superior league to the Finish. They would be top of the league if it wasn't for a freak start, but great start all the same, by the newly promoted side who have lead most season.

Haka have made a good start to the season, only losing once in 16 but i thnk the Norwegians will be strong.

[TheGooner]

Thanks for the warm welcome Gentlemen - I'm pleased to be here.
I hope to become a regular poster.

[slick]

Cheers Gooner and thanks for the link, Komp tried to make out i was acting all smooth about it but what does he know:weak@theknees

Cheers m8

[crowie]

Nice to see you here Gooner, your sites been in my favourites for a good couple of years.

Couple of thoughts on tonights games.

Have to agree with PTDSEI on Valerenga. They seem to be the side most likely to end the fading dominance of Rosenborg in Norway this season. The 3-2 win in Rosenborg was perhaps the shifting of power in the Norwegian top league. They have just picked up Tore Andre Flo and he will form a powerful attack with Stefan Iversen. Another ex EPL player, Ronny Johnsen sits in the middle of the defence.

Opponents Haka won last seasons Finnish league but are struggling to put wins on the board this season, having drawn more games (7) than they have won (6) in their 14 games so far meaning they trail MyPa by 9 points (1 game in hand).

They struggled through against Pyunik of Armenia in round 1, 1-0 at home and drew 2-2 away (they were 2-0 at one stage).

The Valerenga price is verging on the backable (1.45 Betfair, 1.44-1.47 at Betdaq) but I prefer the AH bet. I can see Valerenga confirming their superiority and the the superiority of the Norwegian league tonight and winning by a couple of goals. The AH of -1.25 means that the worst I am looking at (assuming Valerenga win which I am confident they will) is losing half stakes if its only a 1 goal margin. A 2 goal margin (which I can see happening) and the bets landed at a nice price

2.10 available if anyone has an Easybets account, 2.05 at Bet365 but 2.11 and greater available at Betdaq if your willing to stick up a request. I have had a bit matched at 2.14 (2.11 net) and just waiting for rest of my bet to be matched.

[crowie]

I would actually go against the Thun +1.5 AH selection I am afraid to say (sorry Gooner!).

Thun have had a good start to the Swiss league but European competitions wise they are very inexperienced. This is their first appearance in main European competitions and their only previous experience has been Intertoto Cup games.

Their 2nd place last season was a major surprise considering they narrowly escaped relegation the previous season.

Contrast this with a Dinamo Kiev side who were very unlucky not to make the knockout stages of the CL having taken 10 points from a group including Roma, Real Madrid and Leverkusen.

Home wins over Leverkusen (4-2) and Roma (2-0, albeit a weakened Roma side) show their strengths. Real Madrid also escaped with a 2-2 draw from Kiev after being 2-0 down (I am sure?).

I think the greater European experience of Kiev will count for a lot tonight against Thun and am quite happy to take them to win by a 2 goal margin. AH of -1.5 means even a 1 goal win is a loss for me but the price of 2.06 (net) at Betfair for the 2 goal win is good enough for me and a result I would expect to see.

[TheGooner]

Originally Posted by crowie

I would actually go against the Thun +1.5 AH selection I am afraid to say (sorry Gooner!).

No offence mate - that's why we are here to share - your points are well made.


I've been impressed with the improvement in Swiss sides over the last few seasons - both in Champions League and UEFA Cup - and Kiev seem to be slow starters to me playing in a very weak domestic league.

The +1.5 goal start is big - and if Thun can score then I think they'll beat it - but it is definately NOT a sure thing.

Also ...

We've got a total of four games up on the http://www.goonersguide.com site now, with Litmanen also wading in with calls on :
- Brondby,
- Famagusta (double chance)
- and Anderlecht to thrash Neftchi Baku at home (so he's on the -2 handicap).

Full explanations on the site ... but all three suggestions look reasonable options.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Gooner - i know this is off topic and i aplogise to everyone but do you have any MLS guys on your site?

I'm doing alright on it at the minute but its always good to get some others views from people who have knowledge on it. Cheers mate

[Peter Orchard]

Don't know whether this will have any bearing, Crowie, but Iversen won't play tonight.

The Greeks are keen on keeping him eligible for CL play (if he makes the move).

[crowie]

Thanks Peter. I had a look at the Valerenga site but Norwegian ain't my strong point I was actually checking to see if Iversen was still there as I was sure I had read he may be on the move.

Was Flo signed before the CL deadline?

My only concern was that Valerenga seemed to be struggling for goals (although Iversen hasn't really contributed much goals wise) but the bet is mainly an opposition of a Haka side who struggled with the Armenians.