Struggling to to find a bet today.
I'm leaning to Real Madrid on a dnb 10/11 coz of Arsenal's form against top team in prem(see preview below) but will probably wait for BIR to see how teams are performing.
As I was confident of REal winning the 1st leg & look how that went tits up!
FROM
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| BETTING BOX |
| FIXED ODDS |
 | 2pts on Real Madrid and Benfica to qualify for quarter-finals at 5.3/1 (Bet Direct). | Real can outclass Arsenal while Liverpool will struggle to find net against Benfica. |
We're going to keep things simple for Wednesday night's Champions League action by predicting a bleak night for Premiership duo Arsenal and Liverpool.
Real Madrid to qualify at the expense of the Gunners and
Benfica to oust the holders pays 5.3/1 and that looks like top value.
Let's start with Arsenal's clash with Real at Highbury, where Arsene Wenger's men have a 1-0 advantage after a superb display at the Bernabeu and are obviously in pole position.
Indeed it's easy to make a case for the Gunners - they bossed the first leg, have since looked back to their imperious best in the league with a 4-0 demolition of Fulham and seem to thrive against sides who will let them play - just like Real.
However there are a couple of huge question marks against them too and the main one of those is their form this season.
The perceived wisdom is that they've been great at Highbury and awful on the road.
Don't believe it.
Their fifth place position in the Premiership may look like a false one but that's only when it's judged against previous campaigns.
This season it could be argued it actually flatters them because only once in 11 league matches have they managed to beat a side in the top eight.
They may be able to bully the section's lesser lights as shown by 12 wins in 17 from matches outside the leading octet, but it's a different story against the top flight's big guns.
They've managed a pitiful seven points out of 33 - that's just 0.63 points per game - from fixtures with Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool, Tottenham, Blackburn, Bolton and West Ham.
That stat just can't be ignored and as punters we've got to come to terms with the fact the Gunners aren't anything like the force they were just a couple of seasons ago.
And while Real Madrid may not be the best team in Spain they are second in La Liga and perfectly capable of getting the result they require to make this the last ever Champions League game at Highbury.
Yes they were awful in the first leg but their 2-1 win in the Madrid derby at home to Atletico on Saturday made it seven wins out of eight in La Liga - form which Arsenal can only dream about.
The Gunners are still suffering badly from injuries and it's the defence in particular which has been hit, with Ashley Cole and Sol Campbell still on the sidelines.
That doesn't bode well for them keeping a clean sheet and their 1-0 advantage could soon look seriously fragile.
Real are 2/1 to go through and we're doubling them up with Benfica to see off Liverpool at 11/10.
Again it's easy enough to construct an argument in favour of the Premiership outfit who have to overturn a 1-0 defeat from the first leg in Portugal.
The Reds of course are the reigning champions, were unbeaten in the group stages and have a great recent record in the competition at Anfield.
However what suddenly counts against them is the fact they they head into the second leg in arrears - something that didn't happen in the knockout stages en route to glory last season.
And forcing the pace at home isn't something they excel at, as anyone who saw them play out a goalless draw with Charlton at the weekend will testify.
If you are going to take the odds-on about Liverpool progressing you are all but saying they'll score at least twice.
And the number of times they've done that this year? Outside the FA Cup, just once, in a 2-2 draw with Bolton on January 2.
Indeed their last nine Premiership matches have seen them net just five goals and you have to go back to last year to find a league game they won by a bigger margin than 1-0.
It took until February 18 in 2006 for one of their misfiring strikers to find the net in any competition (it still hasn't happened in the league) and that's surely enough of a reason to back against them overturning the first leg deficit here.
Benfica's away record in the competition may be distinctly average but they have at least proved durable on their travels, drawing six out of ten.
And they head into the match on the back of two league wins, including a vital victory over Portuguese Liga leaders Porto which reignited their hopes of a successful title defence.
Ronald Koeman's men are 11/10 to make it through and that's generous in our opinion.
Briefly looking at the night's other two games, we're happy to take a watching brief on Lyon v PSV and hope that the French champions take another step to justifying our pre-tournament advice to back them at 28/1.
And the AC Milan/Bayern Munich showdown is too tough to call after a 1-1 draw in the first leg in Germany.
Last season's beaten finalists Milan are clearly favourites to go through but they'll have half an eye on Sunday's clash with Juventus which they must win to stay in the Serie A title race.
They also have question marks in defence with Paolo Maldini and Cafu out through injury, Jaap Stam serving a one-match ban and a tough decision to make over whether the out-of-form Dida or Zeljko Kalac plays in goal.
Bayern though don't have history (three defeats out of three against Milan at the San Siro) or current form (they lost their 100% home record in the Bundesliga at the weekend when stunned by Hamburg) on their side so it's a game we'll leave well alone.
Champions League 2nd Leg 7th - 8th March
, it wasnt even a penalty, Van Bronckhorst got the ball cleanly first, and Terry had to fall at that time.
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