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Originally Posted by Bigkegman
Interesting .............
England B v Belarus. England 1/4 was this value ? Obviously NO cause they got beat !
If they had won would it have been value ? - IMO YES.
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Sorry Bob but just because a team lost/didn't win the game doesn't mean their price wasn't value. Ignoring the fact it was a pretty meaningless friendly, if England have been say 5/6 for this game and the result had been the same would they still not have been value?
Anyway, just a couple of overall points on this subject as it could run and run and as TQ says, one mans value is anothers bad bet (or lay).
First off, as ODM says, one of the best things, in fact probably the best, I have seen on
TDP over the course of the season was the weekly non league thread. The lads who put the analysis in there really do a great job, week in week out. And more importantly, on many occasions and even in this internet age when everyone (punter and bookie) is supposed to have access to the same information, these punters, AMP especially, dig deeper than I would suggest ANY bookies odds compilier does.
While there is a general consensus on prices nowadays and no bookie really likes to standout with a price and if they do, it won't last for long, the discrepancies in prices between no more than 6-8 bookies who price UK non league football was at times amazing. Some bookies especially, and I am thinking
Corals here, who seemed to stick up prices late in the day and priced on what appeared to be no more than league position, were so out of line in relation to the information about that I actually felt sorry for them, well almost! I can't remember the exact team but they made a few glaring bloopers round about the turn of the year did they not?
So there is certainly plenty of value in these areas, where one person or a group of people can specialise and where the bookies obviously take no more than a cursory glance at how to price a game, or certainly don't devote anywhere like the attention they will to the EPL markets.
Secondly, even with a general consensus of opinion across the board, we now have access to so many online bookies that someone will always take a chance on a game. One other example I can think of, and it was EPL this time, was Bolton v Liverpool, round about Xmas/New Year time again.
Laddies went something like 3.20 Bolton who had that great home record at the time.
Expekt went 4.15 Bolton and then rather amazingly pushed them out to 4.50 for a period before going back to the 4.15 quote. That too me was a glaring error and even though Bolton didn't win, was still a value price for them at home given the form at that time. Of course with
Betfair betting in-play on the game and Bolton having the lead twice, you could still benefit from being on at the pre match price without it actually winning.
One man's value is another man's bad bet
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