US Open 2007

[Chief77]

Olazabal had a good level par round and lies in 3rd while Furyk is a shot further back. Immelmann was going along nicely until he shot back to back bogeys on teh final 2 holes. He lies on +3. All to play for today(apart for Sergio, he may go home!)

[rcgills]

Right, first things first, confession time - I know very little about golf, and am purely looking for an interest bet. Now that confession's out the way, I was looking at the winning score market. 280 or lower is 13 on Betfair. With 70 being par on this course, surely there must be someone capable of going par for 72 holes?

Erm, if there's not anyone capable of that, just don't tell me, as I've already placed the bet Only interest stakes, anyway, but it's a bet that caught my eye.

[traeth]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Right, first things first, confession time - I know very little about golf, and am purely looking for an interest bet. Now that confession's out the way, I was looking at the winning score market. 280 or lower is 13 on Betfair. With 70 being par on this course, surely there must be someone capable of going par for 72 holes?

Erm, if there's not anyone capable of that, just don't tell me, as I've already placed the bet Only interest stakes, anyway, but it's a bet that caught my eye.

like you rc i know little about golf but got interest bets only on this one, watching now and the commentators made the comment that Casey is playing great today was -4 for today , whilst he had a terrible score +7 yesterday on the "easiest day of the tournament " .
They mentioned due to yesterday's rain the greens were much slower than normal and it was noted that the greens well get quicker in the next two days.
The players on the top of the leaderboard are still to go , including Woods

So after all that ramble but what i'm trying to say is that if the winner is going to be Woods it may come under par but i cannot see anyone else being consistant enough.

p.s. my bets are
Henrik Stenson @ 34.00 EW Single
Luke Donald @ 41.00 EW Single
Stewart Cink @ 51.00EW Single
Trevor Immelman @ 67.00 EW Single

i had to take them in-running yesterday so e.w. 1-6 was not available after i had posted about paddies offer , not a great start so i won't have to worry about one of them finishing 6th

[rcgills]

Cheers Traeth. Best price available on Betfair now 8, so either someone's having a decent 2nd round, or I have the power to move markets. I suspect it may be the former

[traeth]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Cheers Traeth. Best price available on Betfair now 8, so either someone's having a decent 2nd round, or I have the power to move markets. I suspect it may be the former

these second round are in
BADDELEY, Aaron +2 F Even 72 70 142

CASEY, Paul +3 F -4 77 66 143

SNEDEKER, Brandt +4 F +3 71 73 144

PERNICE, Tom Jr +4 F +2 72 72 144

Projected cut at +10, three of my selections are above this mark

good luck with your bet rc

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

Angel Cabrera @ 150/1. Just like the player looks like he has good bottle to me but does he do well over in the states?

It's technically aftertiming but must give my thanks to muze - got a nice wee slice of 270s on Betfair as one of my fancies taken from scanning the various TDP picks, and I'm out now in the mid teens as I don't think he'll be able to sustain this tomorrow.

Keep the picks coming folks - gonna re invest in some handily placed outsiders as i think the Woods price means some decent value elsewhere at the mo.

[mrmuzeman]

Sweet man. Im glad someone benefitted, He was the 1 out of my original 5 shortlist I didnt back If he wins I think you can safely say im gona hate it! If been cursing the tele all day cheering when he hits it into bunkers etc lol. I think hell blow up a bit though at some point.

Oh and nice Garcia cut bet Chief, he was shocking.

Goosen to win @ 29/1

Goosen to win @ 29/1

The only player im backing to win pre tourny. Hes won it twice before and is cool as a cucumber, came tied 2nd at Masters last month, no reason he cant go close again.

Goosen to place top 5 @ 7/1

Placed in the top 5 in 7 from his last 25 majors so these odds are good enough for me. Basically the same as taking him each way but I just wanted to stake more on the top 5 rather than the win.

Justin Rose to place top 5 @ 9.5/1

Hes in his best form ever right now. Only played 6 tournies on PGA tour this year but hes placed in the top 5 in 3 of them including last months masters and runner up via playoff in his last tourny. Has a good major pedigree anyway, he has competed in 14 majors and come top 5 in 3 of them.

I also have tiddler top 5 bets on Tim Clark and Chris DiMarco at 21/1 and 33/1 respectively. Neither are on good form at all but have a good history of going close at majors between them so ill chance those high odds for a few pennies. Im not backing either to win as they are a bit shite at actually winning, a bit like Colin Montgomerie.

So The Goose did awfully and missed the cut, certainly wasnt the iceman this week. Rose is going excellently at +2 though, really really solid rounds from him from what I saw and that 9.5/1 is looking sweet there. Clark +8 and Di Marco +9 arent pulling up any trees though but I guess not 100% incapable of sneaking into 5th.

I might back 1 or 2 more players after 3rd day is complete as thats my favourite time to pick players out. But in the mean time

COME ON THE ROSE

[Beanie]

Got your Rose top 5 and Tim Clark too so I'm with that shout, the rest look sunk, but deffo happy enough wiith how Rose is playing to let that one ride.

[Chief77]

Stinking day for all of my picks today. Imellmann had a nightmare 80 and misses the cut. Olazabal had a 78 which leaves him 8 behind the leader. Furyk had a 75 which leaves him as my best hope of salvaging something lying 5 behind the lead.

Dougherty had a stinking 77 but Barnes couldnt beat him as he got a 79. Only bright note on a brutal day was Garcia missing the cut.

God luck with Rose Muze. He's playing nicely and is in with a great chance.

[Beanie]

With another tough day in prospect I've used the Cabrera money for some of the well placed outsiders who seemed to do well yesterday and have shown some consistency over the two days, namely:

Rose
Toms
Fasth
Verplank
Kelly

[mrmuzeman]

What no Bubba Watson Beanie

I like Fasth from those, hes been steady as a rock so far

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by rcgills

280 or lower is 13 on Betfair. With 70 being par on this course, surely there must be someone capable of going par for 72 holes?

Presumably the fact that Tiger's starting to close in on the leaders has something to do with this, but the price dropped to 4.5, so have laid at that price to cover my stake, and leave me with a risk-free interest bet.

[Beanie]

He's eating up the course that's for sure...every green in regulation so far and odds on at the mo. No bogeys for 18 straight holes which on this course is amazing.

[mrmuzeman]

Leaderboard in single figures (no one outside this stands a chance of winning or top 5 tbh).

Baddeley +2
Woods +4
Casey +5
Ames +5
Rose +5
Watson +5
---------- top 5
Stricker +6
Furyk +6
Cabrera +6
Appleby +7
Toms +7
Fasth +7
---------- top 10
Singh +8
Brehaut +8
Kelly +8
Verplank +8
Clark +9
Putnam +9
Mahan +9
Weir +9
Jansen +9
Dougherty +9
Petterson +9
Pernice +9

[mrmuzeman]

Pleased with Roses game yet again, all hes gota do is recreate the last 3 days play and he makes top 5 simple as that. Hes gona have to go one better to win it though.

The faintest glimmer of hope for Tim Clark to make top 5 still, he needs to shoot under par tomorrow to make it basically. I expect the top 5 cut to be +7/+8.

A really really interesting stat for stat fans is on Tiger Woods major wins. All 12 of his 12 major wins have come when he is leading going into the finals day play. The other 25 majors or so he has competed where this is not the case he has not won even 1 time. On that basis backing the field (laying Tiger) is an extreme value bet at 1.75. Havent got the guts to do it after his great round today though but those are MASSIVELY conclusive stats.