US MASTERS : 10-13th April

[ONEDUNME]

Woods now out to 4.8 so time to buy a bit back. Still leaving it red though with a profit if anyone but him wins.

On the "without Woods" market, I'm looking red on most of the top with a massive profit should Snedeker win and at least three of my others in with a shout.

Bottom line is, if Tiger doesn't win, I don't lose.

[2damnhype]

Looks like my cut predictions are wide of the mark, my current worry is that Zach Johnson continues to drop shots and misses the cut.

[traeth]

Originally Posted by traeth

my selections

Harrington, Padraig e.w@26.00 +1 tied for 22nd
Donald, Luke e.w@51.00 +4 missed cut?
Cink, Stewart e.w@67.00 -3 tied for 8th
Stenson, Henrik e.w@67.00 +3 tied for 38th
Watson, Bubba e.w.@251.00 +1 tied for 22

looks like i've still got four in for the next two days with Cink looking good ,cmon bubba

hope its working out well for the rest of you

[mrmuzeman]

Lets see where im at the half way point, a real mixed bag methinks

To Win
Tiger Woods - 5/2
KJ Choi - 60/1
Hunter Mahan - 220/1
Brandt Snedeker - 410/1

Woods -1 and its hard to see him winning from there, im well surpised hes as low as 4/1 still. Only 1 player in the history of majors has ever come back to win from a deficit of anymore than 6 shots off the lead after the first 2 rounds, so hed have to almost make history to win from 7 off the front. Still if anyone was to I guess Tigers your man.

Choi playing very average and zero hope of winning on +3, Mahan missed the cut on +5 after a stinker 1st round. Well chuffed about Snedeker though, im not worried about him bottling it either looks really confident and placed ideally there. Into 14/1 from 410/1 ill take that.

Top 5
Retief Goosen - 5/1
Rory Sabattini - 14/1
Tim Clark - 18/1

Sabattini +5 and Clark +8 both played crap and missed the cut. Goose -2 after 2 rounds of 71 and was a bit up and down, lots of birdies and bogeys but importantly right in the mix tied 11th. Into about 2/1 from 5/1 and placed fine for a weekend charge.

Top 10
Geoff Ogilvy - 2/1
Hunter Mahan - 15/2
Brandt Snedeker - 11/1

Mahan and Snedeker already covered, Snedker about 4/6 for the top 10 finish now though, be disappointed should he not make that. Ogilvy came into this hot but his rounds have been really uneventful and average sitting back on +2 tied 29th. A chance to squeeze a top 10 though if he can get firing but with only 2 birdies on his entire card so far I wont hold my breath.

Top European - Justin Rose - 6/1 ew
Top Debutant - John Senden - 12/1 ew

What can you say about Rose on +2. Playing very well bar a couple of holes where he really lost his tether because of the frustration of missing a couple of birdie chances, resulting in a triple bogey/bogey on 15/16. Really disappointing to see him do that, thought he was more level headed than that these days. Currently 9th from the European players, 3 shots shy of the each way placing. Ill totally take the e/w on that now if I could, he still has a shot at that though for sure. No chance really of making top European though, with Poulter -5 and Casey -4.

Senden missed the cut shooting 80/71. Just came a cropper on his first round appearance which can happen.

[mrmuzeman]

If I wasnt already on Snedeker id definitely back him overnight here at 14/1, I think thats a great price. When you consider theres only about a dozen players with any chance of winning and the position hes in thats definite value for me. Imo only those on -2 or better plus Woods can win (barring a right freak), so thats 13 players.

Mickelson is a genuine worry of course and deserved market leader at 7/2.

Im gona hang fire on making any future bets until after tomorrows round though, I like making a couple of bets when theres just 1 round left to go as you can analyse whats gone on and whats likely to happen better.

[Snodser]

Zach Johnson +2
Retief Goosen -2
Padraig Harrington +1
Geoff Ogilvy +2
Phil Mickelson -5




Well, on a positive note, they all made the cut

(don't bottle it Lefty)

[mrmuzeman]

IN SNEDEKER WE TRUST



I HATED that shot selection he made after going bogey/bogey yesterday to go for the par 5 green in 2. Was a horrible shot and showed the sort of thing he might pull if he got out in front come the crunch. It was just so lame and desperate so obviously was always gona end up in the river. Played himself back into it really well mind but im a bit worried about him if he gets infront now Will give consideration to a partial lay if he shortens up anytime during tomorrows play. 5/1 aint low enough for me to consider it at the mo. 3/1 and I can maybe work with that.

Immelman, will he crack being the clear leader? He didnt deal to well with it at the start of today going +1 for his round after 7 holes. I wouldnt be surprised to see a similar outcome tomorrow in the front 9, he wont get much sleep tonight thinking about it all.

[mrmuzeman]

I dont fancy Tiger to win much. Ive seen him struggle playing catch up so many times on the last day of majors and he seems to try too hard and force things imo, instead of letting it come naturally. Gota wheel out this old chesnut of a Woods stat again

Leading/tying lead in majors going into last days play - Won 13 from 13
Trailing the lead in majors going into last days play - Won 0 from 34

Its an awesomely comprehensive stat, especially when you consider hes come 2nd, 3rd or 4th 9 times of those 34 attempts. Thats a lot of near misses not quite making the ground up. This totally fits the bill for another of those near misses. Im gona stick me neck out and predict him ending on -7 or -8 and missing out.

[mrmuzeman]

-11 Immelman 6/4
-9 Snedeker 5/1
-8 Flesch 10/1
-7 Casey 8/1
-5 Woods 4/1
-4 Cink 50/1

No one else has a hope. Bit hard on ol Flesch there I feel but im not getting involved any deeper. Bring it on!

[Beanie]

I honestly don't know who wins - I've got big question marks over them all.

Woods is too far back - he played well today and wasn't too far away from sticking a -6 in or something, but the fact remains he's 6 back, has never come from behind in a major, and is a pretty ridiculous price.

Flesch is so short off the tee his approach shots have to be so much better than anyone else, I cant see him keeping it up.

Casey is just the type to throw in a +2 today - every time he went to -8 and the lead yesterday he almost immediately followed with a bogey.

Sned was covered by muze - worries if he gets in front.

Immelman the most solid of the lot but this is a huge situation for him - even major winners struggle here and a shaky start and he could come back to them after 3.

But one of them has to win it obv

Im off to enjoy my Sunday and come home in time for the leaders teeing off - see you then folks and gl.

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by Snodser

Zach Johnson +2
Retief Goosen -2
Padraig Harrington +1
Geoff Ogilvy +2
Phil Mickelson -5




Well, on a positive note, they all made the cut

(don't bottle it Lefty)

Mickelson -2 / Johnson -2 / Goosen -2 / Harrington -2.

I'd be happy with a top 5 from any of the above .



God knows who gets the Jacket .

[keemanan]

Muze you fukin beauty

[2damnhype]

Had to give in to sleep last night, so missed the last hour or so
Mickelson was a bit unlucky on the hole where he hit the flag (8th or 9th - I can't remember), a it seemed to affect him quite badly, but unlike a few years ago he didn't blow up completely, but in all honestly I cannot see him coming from 3 back of Tiger, especially as Tiger will be on the charge.
With 18 holes to go and the top 5 spread like they are its hard to see anyone else getting close, but if this bad weather arrives like its supposed to then we could be in for some fun.

Most of my bets are pretty much settled one way or another, so am not going to spoil my enjoyment by wading in again.

Good luck to all you who got on Bog Snorkeller at fancy prices.

[2damnhype]

Sorry couldn't resist, just had these 4 (just small trebles and a small acc):
Have basically gone for experience:
Harrington over Romero
Johnson over Weekley
Goosen over Poulter
Mickelson over Singh (okay so experince bit doesn't count here obviously!!)

[mrmuzeman]

Seems a fair plan 2damn.

Woods and Casey are getting bet in a bit which has pushed Sned out to 6/1. Punish them for their foolhardiness Brandt, punish them