The Players Championship aka 'The 5th Major' : 8-11th May

[mrmuzeman]

Been looking at this all day. Much harder to sift through it all than the masters due to the large field, half as big again as the Masters field.

Ive whittled a big potential list of winners down to 6 players so far, doesnt mean ill back them all though, only the top one of the non favourites list im definitely backing at this precise moment.

The 4 I fancy/feel have value from the non favourites are

Justin Leonard 70/1
Bart Bryant 125/1
Chad Campbell 195/1
Brian Gay 425/1

and the 2 favourites I would consider backing are

Harrington 22/1
Mickelson 12/1

Justin Leonard is the only player from the whole field that im 100% happy with as he fits absolutely all the criteria ive been looking at so hes my nap.

[mrmuzeman]

In terms of pure stats, the criteria ive been focusing on is driving accuracy and putting.

Looking at past winners its clear that the course isnt massively suited to any particular type of player like a lot of other courses. Its quite a short course course so no bias towards the big hitters anyway.

The greens should play quite tough but it goes without saying puttings always an obvious good element to have down cos its half the game. The most key component I can identify for this course is driving accuracy. The rough has been described as pretty harsh in a lot of places so that will punish the wayward less accurate hitters. Couple that with the greens being notoriously small and youll want a good clean lie to create a smooth round with as many birdie chances as possible. I mean Fred Funk won this tourny a few years ago at the grand old age of 48 and hes one of the shortest hitters on tour but is one of the very most accurate players off the tee on the entire tour.

[FC Basher]

In the top GB and Ire market @ 10's Paul Casey (best 22nd) looks value ok hes record aint great and Market leader Harrington does have a second place (2004) to hes name in this tourney and so does Luke Donald (2005) but both have performed badly in this tourney too,Justin Rose is at war with himself mentally and Ian Poulter well hes in his own world,2nd fav Westwood is a best placed 5th back in (1998).Its a win only market but 10's looks value on tough cookie Casey.

Casey is @ 19's for top european and at 1/5 odds 1,2,3,4 looks an even better bet to back him e/w.

[FC Basher]

My Bets are

KJ Choi @ 33's outright
Justin Leonard 70's outright (mrmuzeman selection)

Top European
Paul Casey @ 19's e/w

1st round 3-ball
Rory Sabbatini @ 3.20 to beat Mickleson and Stenson
If Sabbatini can keep a cool head and post something near the 67 he posted in the 1st round last year might just put Mickleson away,as im sure Mickleson aint happy with hes putter at the moment.

[Beanie]

There's a one line run down of every players here:

PGATOUR.COM - Field Study: THE PLAYERS

To be honest its not much more than someone having a quick look at every players course record or current form but worth a quick peek nonetheless.

I'll not bother with a full preview - just a few thoughts.

The reason I love this course and tourney is because it doesnt particularly favour any style of golf - it simply suits good players who are playing well.

There's a wide array of bunkers and water hazards and long rough - all aspects of the game ready to be tested - as muse says accuracy off the tee is something to look for if anything.

My few to follow from the off:

From the favs:

Scott @ 14/1

He's short but with good reason - won round here before, and arguably in the form of his life. Proven tournament closer and strong all round game should suit at Sawgrass.

Kim @ 41/1

Expected him to be a little shorter than this after his win last week - great talent, manificent ball striker and his putting looks to be red hot just now. Showed no nerves in closing out the win at the Wachovia and could easily kick on here.

Mid range

Bryant @ 125/1

I like the Bryant pick - bit of a veteran now, but has been superb over the last few months and played some v sensible golf. Very solid from tee to green, and has shown no problems when up the top of the leaderboards this season.

Villegas @ 110

When he's on he can be spectacular - not sure he could hold it together if atop the leaderboard going into the weekend, but a run from off the pace isn't out of the question. Aggressive game which should suit round here, as it has in the past.

And the big odds:

Olazabal @ 330

Good finish here in 07 and after back trouble he's arguably in better shape now - there's been glimmers of a return to form, and if he can recapture the Ollie of Old, then he's probably got one big performance left in him.

Herron @ 590

Not quite the player he once was, but again, has shown the odd glimmer of form this season. Has gone well round here before in 05, but a big ask to do well again.

[Beanie]

Can't wait for this, gonna be great to watch...

Imagine having a 1 shot lead on Sunday night...nerves are jangling, arms are like jelly, swing is all over the place, and you're on the 17th tee trying to land your ball on that green. Any other day its a routine, easy 8 or 9 iron.

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by Snodser

Big 7 (7/4) & Harry 20/1 ew.

Will drop in now & again to see what the experts think .

Two small ones, Perez & Allenby ew.

[mrmuzeman]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

The 4 I fancy/feel have value from the non favourites are

Justin Leonard 70/1
Bart Bryant 125/1
Chad Campbell 195/1
Brian Gay 425/1

Done all of these E/W and the following top 10s

Top 10s

Brandt Snedeker 7/1
Scott Verplank 10/1
Steve Elkington 10/1
Jerry Kelly 29/1

[2damnhype]

I don't think you can help but be a fan of this tournament.

Imagine having a 1 shot lead on Sunday night...nerves are jangling, arms are like jelly, swing is all over the place, and you're on the 17th tee trying to land your ball on that green. Any other day its a routine, easy 8 or 9 iron

Or putting in punter's terms - your man can be 3 up or 3 down teeing off on the 16th and he still can neither consider it won or lost.

I really have not had the time to study for this tournament, so have just had a match bet as an interest:
Harrington to beat Singh

[Beanie]

Nice stream on the PGA site of the 17th hole - its up all day so is great to watch before the main coverage comes on.

[Beanie]

The afternoon starters have had a bit of a rough deal today - very tough scoring for all the late starters and none have made any impression on the morning pace setters.

Garcia was putting like a demon today - must be the best he's putted for a long time, which isn't saying much. The greens are fairly forgiving and from tee to green he remains one of the best, so who knows, would be brilliant to see.

On the flipside, Adam Scott missed 4 putts from inside 4ft today, including whats reported as a 1 footer on number 1, altho I didnt see it

KJ Choi struggling after his eye operation...shoulda gone to specsavers I think.

Ernie starting ok - but as I talk he dunks it in the drink on 17. Really tough for these late starters, having to contend with a lot more wind than the pre-lunch mob.

[mrmuzeman]

Brian Gay was going well on -2 but just pumped it into the water on that 17th as well, lame.

What a name though eh Brian Gay, you just cant imagine how much he must have had the piss taken out of him at school and such

[FC Basher]

KJ Choi struggling after his eye operation...shoulda gone to specsavers I think.

I didnt know that when I back him, shhiittt

Paul Casey doing well, not

[mrmuzeman]

Leonard threw in a bit of a stinker today as well with a 75. Is it possible to shoot a 75 and still win a tourny? You wouldnt have thought so although I guess e/w hopes arent all lost. Sorry to see you backed him as well Basher

[FC Basher]

These have been my worst golf bets to date mate.

Cink hit 74 last year and finished T-3
Unbelivable Olazabal hit 78 last year too to finish T-3