The Open Golf Championship

[fasteddy]

Just want to clarify a couple of points that might help in our search for a winner:

the extra yardage is very important because it brings a lot of the bunkers back intomplay. These bunkers have also had alterations made to them, increasing the 'roll' factor...meaning that even the slightly wayward drives have to contend with being sucked into the traps.
The local staff may appear to have been very subtle in their adjustments , but they're all canny still the same.

Another point to consider is the drives that 'miss on the right'...really good article on this on the pgatour.com site...explaining how important it is for players NOT to do this due to the layout of the course...so again i think the drives and their positions have been affected by the changes, and that this was the main reason for doing so.

As far as betting goes....

bet365 have a market comprised of former champions, " Yesterday's Men"....with Daly the 4/1 fav!!...incredible...I think he will struggle to make the cut...

way 1/4 1-2-3
John Daly 4/1
Nick Price 9/2
Tom Lehman 9/2
Todd Hamilton 11/2
Paul Lawrie 7/1
Mark O'Meara 12/1
Mark Calcavecchia 12/1
Nick Faldo 16/1
Ben Curtis 18/1
Greg Norman 25/1
David Duval 40/1
Tom Watson 40/1
Sandy Lyle 66/1
Jack Nicklaus 200/1
Tony Jacklin 500/1


Only 3 stand out to me : Price , Faldo and Curtis...making their odds very tempting indeed..especially with 1/4 odds 1st 3.....this looks like the market I'll spend a bit of time on before tee off times tomorrow

[Bigkegman]

Woods for me.

Think the extra yardage will play into his game - also weather should stay calm until the Sunday - by that time he will be clear but is 3/1 value ?

[Parahandy]

Originally Posted by fasteddy

Just want to clarify a couple of points that might help in our search for a winner:

the extra yardage is very important because it brings a lot of the bunkers back intomplay. These bunkers have also had alterations made to them, increasing the 'roll' factor...meaning that even the slightly wayward drives have to contend with being sucked into the traps.
The local staff may appear to have been very subtle in their adjustments , but they're all canny still the same.

Another point to consider is the drives that 'miss on the right'...really good article on this on the pgatour.com site...explaining how important it is for players NOT to do this due to the layout of the course...so again i think the drives and their positions have been affected by the changes, and that this was the main reason for doing so.

Fair comment about the extra yardage bringing certain bunkers back into play but I still think too much is being made of the issue. For example, at this level the players know more or less exactly how far they hit it. I agree they will have to think more on certain holes before going for a big one because of the layout changes but this is the case in every big tournament.

Missing on the right can result in disaster as the out of bounds and most of the other big trouble is on that side but in many cases the right is the side of the fairway to be on for the best approach to the flag. The Road Hole (17th) is by far the hardest hole on the course one of the most challenging Par 4's in the world. Irrespective of where the flag is on this hole, the ideal line is on the right side of the fairway and any player left of centre will find it very difficult if not impossible to hit the green.

I've played the Old Course myself several times though not for a long time. Had a par on the Road Hole too - no joking and have been on the Road and in the Sands of Nakajima. It costs over £100 to play the Old Course now.

Agree re John Daly being a poor favourite in the past winner market, though he has been playing much better overall this season, despite his game having tailed off somewhat recently. Wouldn't like to try and pick the winner from that field.

I'll be away over the weekend but will be glued to the box on Sunday afternoon. Good luck to those having a bet

[kompressaur]

nothing to add im afraid lads but if you want a break from golf then try a wee put at this
http://www.nearlygood.com/game/championshipgolf.html

don't mind me. Keep them thought and interests and bets a comming.

[david]

luke donald is playing in a 3 ball with nicklaus and tom watson. 4/11 is huge surely?

with all due repect to these 2 great players, they aint a force any more. cant realistically see them even close to breaking par tomorrow whereas donald i expect to challenge for the title.

will also be on donald outright at 28/1 and to be top british player at 9/2 which is a great price. each way a quarter for top 4. stakes back even if finishes in top 4 brits. cant really see who can challenge from britain (maybe poulter/westwood but thats all)

my other fancy for an outsider is mark hensby at 125/1. (ew 1/4 top5) finished 3rd in the us open i think didnt he? had a tied 3rd place last week in america as well and looks in decent form.

lastly i was really impressed with immelman last week and will take him on in a tournament match bet against mcdowell.

opposite view to parahandy and i have to admit i dont know much about graeme mcdowell. immelman ive seen a few times though and he always looks quite good.

big star of the future IMO and i quite like 1.86.

i also like westwood to beat verplank at 1.68. westwood went quite well last week until sunday and i considered him for outright win earlier in the week. gone off that now but he should still ahve a decent tournament.

verplank was a player i watched for a few years quite closely and have backed him in majors at fancy prices on a number of occasions and he has only really come anywhere kinda close once although cant remember which one it was (2 years ago i think? finished about 15-20th)

dont rememebr him doing an awful lot in the past season and westwood should take care of him.



the 2 above matchbets + hensby outright/donald outright at bet365. rest at hills.

[Beanie]

Good stuff David.

Reading loads of good stuff about McDowell, and especially his performance at the Dunhill last year as mentioned by Para. Gonna go read some more.

Also reading about how Davis Love has finished in the top 15 in 7 of the last 8 Opens. Impressive, so I'm gonna have a close eye on his match bets.

[Beanie]

I'm gonna fire down a few thoughts on a few 3 balls, and them I'm looking for the golf buffs to sort the wheat from the chaff

Saltman to beat Beem/Baker @ around 4.00:

Odds are big, but Beem is in pretty poor form having made just 4 cuts from 17 this year. Baker's a bit shit ain't he? Saltman is v young, and v inexperienced, but he goes in with no pressure and only an aim to enjoy it, which often brings out the best in the young 'uns. Could be a star at long odds.

Donald to beat Watson/Nicklaus @ 1.40ish

As David says, those odds look like a giveaway. The old boys are a couple of steps in class below now.

Scott to beat Verplank/Langer @ 2.10 ish

Scott seems so consistent right now, and I like the confidence shown on this thread. Verplank doesn't look to bad formwise this year, and Langer can still spring a surprise or two, but over evens looks nice.

Casey to beat Norman/Jacklin @ 1.50 ish

Scarily similar to the Donald bet. Casey not in quite so good form, but the win in March in the TLC Classic should give confidence. Maybe.

Jacobsen to beat Woosnam/Curtis @ 2.20 ish

Curtis in poor form this year, making just 3 cuts from 15, while Woosnam looks indifferent. Jacobson not done much this year, but improved round by round at the Scottish Open for a top 15 finish. I'd back him to continue that improvement.

Any help appreciated.

[kompressaur]

Can folks HIGHLIGHT their vbookie bets too just to make life easier for us too Dont wanna miss givin g you a cjhance on your bets in the comp too thanks.

LADBROKES are offering a free bet up to £25 on the open on anything. Just thought i'd mention that. Handy if you aint got a Ladbrokes account and also handy as it helps me out to and boy do i need some helping

[Beanie]

How does that all work Komp...do I follow that link and just open an account, and then deal with the free bet later, or do I have to click some special free bet link on my way to the signup?

Not sure it will work cos I used to have an account there, but worth a shot.

[Oddsfellow]

2 reachable par 4's and 1 reachable par 5 in make 2 means -3 is par golf. 4 rounds of that gives you -12. Low winds forecast and hot dry conditions will give increased roll so i think around about the 2.75 that is on offer for 271 and under for winning score at Betfair is a gift.

[Beanie]

Par 72 is it Oddsfellow?

[Parahandy]

Yes Par 72 Beanie. Weather forecasts tend to vary though it does look as though it will stay dry, but a bit cooler than its been up here this week.

A word of caution re Paul Casey who has been very much off form this season. Yes, he should surely comfortably outscore Jacklin but Greg Norman would normallly be a different proposition. However, he's hardly played this year. Still, backing a player who is out of form is not advisable IMO.

Luke Donald has had a great year and is another who could go very well here, though I don't know if he has any form on a links course as he has played almost all his golf in the USA. I wouldn't say he is massive in the 3 ball with Tom Watson and Jack Nicklaus, as Watson in particular is still very capable of putting a low round or two together and has done it in recent Opens.

Personally I don't fancy 3 ball betting and I have a feeling I'm not alone. The bookies overround is much less in a 2 outcome (H to H) market.

David, a difference of opinion is healthy and I've no doubt Graeme McDowell will have to play a bit to beat Immelman. Again I'm not sure if you're man has any notable links form.

[Swooperman]

Erm....I wanna back a couple of players not quoted above, so i'll put them here if thats ok....

*******VBookie Bet********
Lee Westwood to win the Open @ 40/1. 20pnts staked
Darren Clarke to win the Open @ 33/1. 20pnts staked

[Beanie]

Thats them up Swooper so stick your stakes in.

[Beanie]

Cheers for the reply Para...just what I was looking for.

Might give most of them a miss(reckon i'll still go for Adam Scott, and maybe Saltman as well just as a cheeky patriotic punt) and look to a few more matchbets/back and lay opportunities. Off to consider them now