I took a shot at Romford last Thursday and got spanked at
Betfair betting on outside runnings. I was plugging numbers into my system and getting results which were at odds with
Betfair odds. All the inside runners (1, 2 and 3) were getting backed heavily and their odds were ridiculously small.
Here's why:
ROMFORD TIME WINNER SP [1] [2] [3] F/C DIV T/C DIV TRAINER time
1:38 Stemart Toffee 5/1 3 x 2 x 1 19.68 59.36 P Young 24.41
1:57 Avalon Snap 9/2 1 x 3 x 4 23.75 61.20 E Gaskin 24.25
2:12 Marbella Babe 5/1 2 x 1 x 4 21.75 77.53 P Young 24.20
2:33 Merlin Merlot 9/4J 1 x 4 x 2 17.12 39.97 J Reynolds 24.44
2:48 Coomlogane Berty 7/2 3 x 2 x 1 14.80 37.82 J Reynolds 25.00
3:08 Cians Bubbles 11/8F 1 x 2 x 4 7.37 21.73 M Lucas 36.65
3:28 Niamhs Hare 2/1F 2 x 1 x 4 9.28 21.29 A Ingram 24.88
3:44 Nats Delight 7/4F 1 x 3 x 2 8.75 23.60 J Reynolds 24.60
4:04 Escapologist 2/1 1 x 2 x 5 7.38 31.21 D Mullins 24.95
4:22 Stick On Chris 7/4F 2 x 3 x 6 11.39 44.20 P Young 25.33
4:42 Curley Abbie 2/1F 3 x 4 x 1 14.95 35.46 M Locke 25.04
Hopefully you can see that the winners were always from traps 1, 2 or 3. What the hell was going on? I thought it was just a coincidence around 3pm, and that randomness sometimes shows patterns and this was one of those occasions. But, the trend continued all damn day and while I was laying dogs at short odds, the damn things won relentlessly when running from inside. I swear on one race, about 18k was bet and 14k of this was on either trap 1, 2 or 3. Like I said, I thought it was random chance but clearly people were picking the inside runners and putting big bunts on them, so something was happening to make these rather average dogs run well.
So I check the results the next day with the going included and I see that the first race was at +40 going, the next at +40, then +30 +20 +10 N N -10 -20 -30 -30.
From
The 'Science of Greyhound Racing Prediction' by Guy Slade
Quote:
A Fast Track (+0.40 secs = GP state of going adjustment) Racing on firm going in warm or hot atmospheric temperatures often creates a 'fast running track' and generally gives an advantage to the 'inside early paced runners'. This type of going helps greyhounds produce very quick sectional times and allows those 'fast away dogs' to stretch out and record extremely quick winning racetimes! It is usually on 'fast ground conditions' in the summer months that 'track records' maybe achieved, although a hard frozen track in mid-winter may also be considered a fast track and overall generally benefits the 'quick away runners'.
A Normal Track (0.00 secs) All greyhounds racing on a normal racetrack surface, should produce normal race and sectional times, as this type of track surface should be considered fair to all racing lines and running styles of racing greyhounds.
A Slow Track (-0.40 secs) Winter dog racing in cold temperatures on 'sloppy' or 'boggy' racing conditions will produce slower race and sectional times and overall generally favours the 'strong finishing type' of dog. The winning race-times being 'slower run' than normal racing times will inevitable give greyhounds that 'stay on' or 'finish well' more time to get into a virtual dog race!
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I can only conclude that when the going was positive, the track is good and all dogs have decent footing. When the going is negative, the inside of the track gets torn up a little and the dogs on the inside of the track suffer while dogs on the outside have better conditions. I didn't include this in my calculations and this caused my predicted win %'s to be wrong by quite a bit.
But I do have a problem. How do I find out the going before the race? At the
racing post website, the going is only listed a day after the results are first posted, so I have no idea what the going is before a race.
If anyone wants to help out, I'm thinking of looking at how the going affects race times according to trap. It would take a little while in excel, but if anyone wants to do the same we could combine the results to get a bigger sample.
The effect of going.
