A Hellish decision. 400bb pot 5/10NL

[Jezza]

Wow this hand sucked pretty bad at the end. Do you call the river?

Some background info. Villian in this hand is a regular who always buys in for the max. He tells everyone how hes a pro etc. He is on during the daytime everyday so I believe he is. I dont rate thim as highly as I do the other pros at 5/10 tho, I have seen him stack off for 100bb in a 3 way pot with just Top pair 2nd best kicker when it was CLEAR one of the other players had a set or the straight (KQ on a KJ9r flop). This is not the play of a good 5/10 regular. He is at least very aggressive when he has a good hand, his weakness is he pays off too much when he is beat. Today he has been losing quite a bit and is definately slightly tilty. He did however double up a minute ago and sits with 2200 at the table (he is still slightly down for the day tho). I have been winning a lot of small/medium pots and have 2k at the start of the hand. I have no proper HH for this hand at the moment so I will just type it out, I can remember every street clearly tho as I just played it.

5/10NL 6max (table full)

I am on the bb as the hero w 2k, he is on the SB as the villian and covers me.

Preflop

Everyone folds to him in the SB. He raises to 30 to play. I am in the BB and call w 52hearts (marginal I know due to second best hand in massive possible pot potential etc, but I have position at least and we are deep).

Flop:
Qh 9h 2sPot = 60
VILLIAN: Bet 30
HERO: Raise to 90
VILLIAN: Raise to 240
HERO : Call

Turn:
Qh 9h 2s 4d
Pot = 540
VILLIAN : BET 200
HERO : CALL

River:
Qh 9h 2s 4d Kh
POT = 940
VILLIAN : All in for 1730
HERO : 1530 to call

WTF call or fold?

[Scottieboy08]

PUKE... I fold simply because this is a common play of a tilter looking to get money back over betting Axhh. Its a thin value bet with JT, 2 pairs/sets c/c or b/f at worse so I let it go

[Bigkegman]

I looked at that and immediately say CALL

I never even thought about him having a straight !!!

oh wait - flush beats straight ???

nah - i'd call

[Yen_Sid]

Definite fold for me, regardless of what he's holding you will NEED to hit to win the pot, not worth the risk for that amount I'd say, although I'd imagine the odds of hitting are fairly good I'd still be chucking that one.

[Colbro]

Call
Its 1530 to win 2700 and I 'd say you would win about 75% of the time.

[DAN DAN]

Originally Posted by Yen_Sid

Definite fold for me, regardless of what he's holding you will NEED to hit to win the pot, not worth the risk for that amount I'd say, although I'd imagine the odds of hitting are fairly good I'd still be chucking that one.

Hasn't hero already hit? Oh do you mean because there is no fold option from the villian, right up to speed now. Question is, did villian hit his straight or flush, think it was his straight. Call.

[bluek]

Hmmmm J10 for me, hopefully not the hearts.......................

[MickeyPaul]

I'd automatically think he'd made a better flush and f-f-f-fold it while shouting, 'Oh you scum!'.

[pydoom]

Originally Posted by Mickeypaul

I'd automatically think he'd made a better flush and f-f-f-fold it while shouting, 'Oh you scum!'.

Me too - although I would just fold it and shout, 'Oh you f-f-f-fucking scum!!!', but then I am a people person

[Hippy Dave]

The way that hands gone, automatic call for me.

His play on the flop says to me that he's either trying to steal the pot or he's hit a hand. I don't think the draw is much of an option or he'd probably just have called the raise on the flop. Of course J10h perhaps, then he's got a mega draw.

The bet on the river from him looks to me to be one of panic, he probably had AQ or 99, was feeling pretty confident, then the Kh comes and suddenly his hands not so strong. So he pushes all in and hopes for the best.

[Yen_Sid]

Originally Posted by Yen_Sid

Definite fold for me, regardless of what he's holding you will NEED to hit to win the pot, not worth the risk for that amount I'd say, although I'd imagine the odds of hitting are fairly good I'd still be chucking that one.

Oops, I obviously wasn't paying attention so disregard what I said, I read it as the river was still to come wjilst watchin something on telly at the same time.

Read it whilst paying attention this time, I'm calling, putting him on hitting a straight on the river.

[Jezza]

This was a nightmarish decision the other morning...

The flop is wonderful obviously. I raise here when he bets just like I would with a ton of other stuff on this flop. When he does the kinda bit more than min gay reraise I put him on a very good hand. QQQ probably. So I take one off to try and crack his hand.

The turn bricks. I was now fully expecting to see a pot sized bet from here with QQQ and have to fold. But he doesnt, he does a less than half pot bet. This is NOT what he would do with QQQ on such a draw heavy board, he would be potting it. I am now not so sure about his hand. This bet looks a little like a draw trying not to get raised by me. I still dont want to take the chance of a backraise so I just call but I am now getting very curious as to what he has. I sure dont believe its QQQ anymore anyway.

Well the river is great. Completes my flush booyaka. My line looks completely like a flush draw and he knows that I probably have a flush here a lot of the time. I am therefore sat wondering just how much I can get out of him when he checks when he ZOMG GOES ALL IN?? WTF. We can now 100% discount all sets, all overpairs all two pairs and JT from him. He 100% never makes this bet with these hands. That is because these hands can win a showdown but they are really scared I have made a flush (which I will have a lot in this spot). They all just check and see if I bet then consider a call ( a good player would just check/fold all of these here against me). They certainly dont risk 1500 dollars as its so likely I have a flush here. He is only betting this much money into me here with one of two things. 1) The nut flush or 2) Some bizzare bluff. Its very rare you will see two deep stacks clash in a cash game like this without two real monster hands going down. This guy is not stupid and he knows I have a flush here a lot. I certainly do not want to go broke for 200bb with a tiny flush that can only win vs a bluff against him. I then consider the fact that his turn bet looks a lot like a draw trying to see the river for a cheap and that just adds to the fold in my head. Sigh, I was doing a Tuff_Fish behind my computer screen and very much considering the fold.

However I thought though the hand in its entirety one more time. If you go back to the flop you will see he bets and I raise. Now once I have raised what would he do with a big draw there (something like AKhearts or JThearts). The answer is one of two things. He would either 1) Flat call my raise or 2) Make a HUGE pot committed reraise. He certainly would not make a gay little almost min reraise out of position with a draw, no matter how good it was. He would either just call or make the huge reraise. Yet he put in that weird 3 bet on the flop. This just does not add up to the play of a flush draw so I got curious about his hand. After thinking about this for my whole extended time bank I decided I had to call based on the flop and river play not making any sense together so I called at the very last second. He had Ah9spades and I won a gigantic pot which I came pretty close to folding in. I cannot blame anyone for folding here but the key to the hand is in the flop play. If he had just called my flop raise, I would have certainly folded.

Note you will see in his hand he has the Ah. He therefore knows I do not have the nuts and this is what made him make such a huge bluff as he knows I am going to be fearful he has it. This is a common play in pot limit omaha games (when the nuts is out there so often but even if you dont actually have the nut flus and just hold the lone ace, you can represent the flush and probably get believed).

Thanks to everyone who replied in this thread. It was a c*** of a hand to be honest lol. Top marks to hippy dave who not only got the correct answer but nailed the reason why to call spot on.

Jez

[Colbro]

Of all the hands I went through I never once thought it would be a bluff with him holding Ah

[Hippy Dave]

Originally Posted by Jezza

Thanks to everyone who replied in this thread. It was a c*** of a hand to be honest lol. Top marks to hippy dave who not only got the correct answer but nailed the reason why to call spot on.

Well, what can I say, I'm just a poker god

[Hippy Dave]

Nice pot by the way!