Situation with Pocket Tens

[mrmuzeman]

And raise next time pre-flop

Err no thanks Doc! I wasnt looking for advice on the preflop play, I will ALWAYS limp with this hand in a full ring game wherever I am.

[Doc]

Pocket tens against 9 random hands is 17% to win at a showdown. Against 4 random hands it is up to 36%. If you don't raise then you are letting 9 players make an easier decision than if you folded. If you do raise, at least some of them will fold. I don't want to play 10's against 4 players though - I want it heads up. Thats just the way I play tens. Nines I'll play like you guys advocate for 10s

Aces I'd NEVER slowplay from under the gun UNLESS I was pretty sure it would be raised by someone. Kings likewise. I'm guessing most players are the same. I think most people would agree on the following idea:

Get your big pocket pairs against a small number of players
Get your small pocket pairs against many players and hope to make a set

Where we might differ is what constitutes big and small - Tens are my dividing line. Other people might use Jacks or even Queens. Depends on the players you are up against I guess. Most times when I play, a large number of players will fold to 4XBB raise unless they have something. That something might be another pocket pair or maybe something like AQ, AJ, KQs - maybe JJ. With AK, AA, KK, QQ they'll usually re-raise. If I call and hit a ten in that scenario (the raise) I'm taking all their chips. If I don't and an overcard hits then I'm done.
If I just get called then it is down to the number of players I face. I'd imagine most of you would open for a raise from middle position with tens? If so and you get several callers, how do you decide to proceed on the flop? Same way I do here......

Tens are my dividing line because they are such a key card - involved in more straights than any other card etc. If I hold two and raise pre-flop, then it makes it less likely that someone else beats me with a straight. You've got equity in the pot against random hands. You can stand a raise. You have the 4th best hand pre-flop. That says raise to me.

[aliensyndm]

There's a bit more to it than what the % chance of your hand is winning at showdown ! The thing is when people call your raise you aren't playing against 3 or 4 random hands are you ? You are playing against 3 or 4 people who have called your raise. Also one of the most important and often underestimated things in hold 'em is position. In the example we are on about you are in the worst position possible almost, raising with 9 people still to act. Exactly how often are you getting the pot heads up in a full ring game anyway ? Not very often. Even if you do you're still in bad position. Are you going to bet the whole way regardless of overcards falling or check-call it ?
You still didn't answer that. Or is this the answer......

If I don't and an overcard hits then I'm done.

How many times has an overcard hit by the river ? Why would you want to be involved in a pot you don't have to be in the worst position possible ?

You've got equity in the pot against random hands.

You aren't playing against random hands though as I've already said.
KK or AA has much less chance (or no chance) of an overcard falling on the flop or afterwards.

So what happens once you raise 4 x BB with pocket 10s. Two or three callers after you suppose. Now even 1 overcard flops are you betting ?
No overcards flop and you bet and get 2 callers, are you still betting ?
1 overcard flops are you betting ? Why raise 4 BBs when so often an overcard IS going to flop and you are in horrid position ?
You are in horrid POSITION and there's all sorts of ways to lose and you've no real idea of the strength of your hand. You really need to flop a set so why raise 4 BBs when effectively "drawing" to a set ? TT is good heads up, for an all in in a tournament. This isn't a tournament and this isn't heads up and you have decisions on the flop turn and river all of which could cost money. It's not a case of all in and hope your TT holds up to two overcards.

[mrmuzeman]

Yeah Aliens post makes a lots of sense and I agree with everything he says. We dont mean to argue about your play constantly and stuff Doc we really dont and hats off to you if some of your methods work for you

BUT the way of limping and just trying to bag the set is just so much a simpler and definitely less volatile (and a lot more profitable imo) way of playing the hand. It makes your decisions so much easier than having to guess where you stand when out of position with what in all essence is a marginal hand once a flop comes and you havent improved.

I play the same way with JJ down, I make special note to raise from any position with QQ, KK and AA.

For me with JJ downward you are just too likely to face an overcard on the flop (and what if theres 2 overcards?). When your out of position with people whove called a raise your just in a quandry as to where you stand, and your probly standing in the poker equivalent of quicksand truth be told.

Im not sure the chances of there being an overcard on the flop with Tens but I believe with Jacks its something like 60% you will so im certainly not liking pocket tens chances there.

[Doc]

What I would do on the flop would depend on what overcards were there and how many callers. Against 1 caller, especially if he was tight weak I might bet the flop. Against two or more I surely wouldn't. I'd be much more leery of betting with an ace on the flop than for example a Queen.

I understand the positional considerations and the fact that the hands aren't random and won't necessarily go to showdown. But look at it like this. There are only 24/1326 hands better than TT. So 98% of hands are worse (or equal). At a rough estimate you will have the best hand at the table 84% of the time.

75% of the time there'll be an overcard to your pair hits the flop. 8% of the time total you'll get a ten - so about 6% of the time where there is a higher card than your ten, you'll make trips.

69% of the time you get overcarded on the flop
6% of the time you get overcarded but make trips on the flop
25% of the time you either have an overpair or top trips

In fact the 69% figure is a little high because we are presuming that people are calling with some of these cards in their pocket. So ball-park you're going to make a lot of money 1/3 of the time. 2/3 of the time you're going to face a difficult decision, some of which you may win and most you'll either fold or lose.

Will you make enough on the 1/3 of the time to balance out the 2/3? I believe you will.

I also disagree that you haven't defined your hand - you have got a lot of information, unless the players are so loose that they'll call with virtually anything. Even in this case, you'll have such equity (and presumably skill) that you want to get their money in the pot.

I think Sklansky's idea here is good - if they could see your cards and wouldn't put money in, but you get them to do it via your raise - you benefit.

I can see the case for not raising, but for me the case for raising is stronger. Differening styles is all.

Out of interest, do you flat call Queens and Jacks like this also? My 'dividing line' is at tens, yours is obviously higher

[Doc]

no worries Mr. M

Interesting discussion and hopefully we all (And others too!) benefit from it. I see your 'dividing line' is at queens. I'd estimate the chances of an overcard to queens as being about 50%

[mrmuzeman]

Yeah I limp with JJ but not QQ as QQ definitely more often than not will still be an overpair to a flop.

Interesting you mention Sklansky and a lot of his theory is obviously quality but some of his stuff really doesnt come across the same at no limit.

2/3 of the time you're going to face a difficult decision, some of which you may win and most you'll either fold or lose.

Why is this good btw mate? Doesnt look like a good reason to raise to me personally where definitely more oftan than not your gonna be guessing and having very hard decisions to make.

Surely paying 1bb and either probably being done with the hand extremely cheaply OR having a very strong hand with a set or better is going to be more +ev in the long run? It certainly makes decisions a lot easier!

[aliensyndm]

I also disagree that you haven't defined your hand - you have got a lot of information,

How exactly ? You're raised 4 x BB, you've had a few callers, flop comes with say 1 or 2 overcards(or none).....what information on your opponents hands do you have ? You are first to act, all you know is they have called your raise. They could be playing 33, AK, AA or a whole host of hands.
You have raised and put money you don't need to into a pot and are putting yourself in horrid position with a medium strength hand and you've no idea of the strength of your opponents hands.

It's all very well quoting percentages of the chanes of your hand being ahead etc but the problem is you don't know when it's ahead. If the flop comes KQ3 it's pretty scary. You are still ahead to AJ say but you are not to know what are you ? If you check that flop and someone in later position bets are you calling it ? I'm folding it but I'm folding having only had it cost me 1 BB rather than 4.

[Doc]

I know what you mean alien - but if you raised 4BB everytime you had TT and were getting 3 or 4 (whatever 'a few' is in this example) callers then you have to expect them to be playing a lot of weak hands. IF that is the case then you might as well raise any pair as you'll have the best of it on average and get paid off whenever you make a monster.

You just can't worry about someone making trips - shit happens! Your main concern is someone having an overpair or drawing out on you. Somoene not re-raising you with a bigger pair is making an error IMO (certainly if they have KK or AA). Ergo your opponents have made a mistake (they've a bigger pair), they're drawing with high cards (you have defined your hand!) or you are a monster favourite (they've a smaller pair)

Mr. M - plenty of Sklanskys theory isn't specific to any variant of poker - it is general. Re the other question it is about whether you make more when you hit than you lose when you don't - similar to Ken's logic of calling a raise with a small pocket pair - you'll lose most of the time, but when you hit your set you'll win big.