A nut straight turns bad? - Hand analysis

[mrmuzeman]

Lets go $0.50/1 stakes with a $100 buy in.

Im dealt KQs in mid positon and I call. The button calls and the bb checks, 3 take an unraised flop.

Flop - A J 10 rainbow (bingo nut straight!)

BB checks, I bet pot for $3, button calls, BB folds, heads up for the turn. I say to myself 'dont pair the board'.

Turn - J

So I now no longer have the nuts and thats the worst possible turn a Jack. I bet out $7.50 into the $9 pot to find out where im at with my straight. The button raises it a further $10 to $17.50.

Theres now $34 in the pot and its $10 to me. The button has $30 left behind.

Your move?

[mrmuzeman]

Heres some of my thinking btw. First of all I folded this hand.

His raise scared the shit out of me It wasnt far from being a min-raise which indicates a strong hand. It also totally commits him and looks like he wants to play for his whole stack I think.

His range of holdings are quite minimal I think. The way I read it hes either got the goods in the full house or hes got trip jacks. J10 looks the most likely hand to me, it fits in with not re-raising the flop and raising small after turning the full house. AJ is possible as well of course (youd like to think hed re-raise the flop but lots of poor players will slwoplay their top 2 pair).

Now he could also have KJ or QJ for trip jacks. It fits in with the flop call but im not so sure about the weird raise. It could be though. Unlikely is KQ for the straight same as me but I guess I may as well mention it.

I think I have to commit him all in here or fold it, I think a call is a poor play as im out of position against him. I felt he had the goods so I folded but I fcukin HATED doing it after flopping the nuts. Im drawing dead if hes got a full house which swayed me I think as well.

Thoughts?

[Doc]

I'd have raised pre-flop, which would give you some information at least. You're first into the pot with a strong hand, so if someone calls you, you've got something.

The turn is a brutal card for you. I think I'd overbet the pot here and hope he goes away. If he calls, I'm going to check it through. If he raises I'm out. Either way, no more money in the pot. Having raised pre-flop I'm not too scared of a full house, except for AJ, TT or AA.

As for your specific decision here, given the way you've played it:
The call wouldn't bother me too much here, although I think the re-raise to put him all-in is preferable. Either way you are committing to the pot. My gut reaction would be that I don't think I'd fold.

If we look at his possible holdings:

KJ, QJ - he is drawing to 2 outs from 44 cards - i.e. you are 22-1 fav.
AJ - you're dead
JT - ditto
TT - ditto
JJ - ditto
AA - ditto
KQ - split pot

You're basically being asked to commit $40 to win $64.
There are 6 ways he can have KJ, 6 he can have QJ, 8 he can have JT or AJ, 3 ways each for AA and TT, 1 for JJ and 9 he can have KQ.
In raw numbers that is 12 hands where you're a massive fav
23 where you're dead
9 where you split

You can probably slightly discount KJ (its not a great hand) and AJ (more likely to have raised by now), and likewise AA and TT

I'd say it is something like 9, 16, 9 before you account for the way he has bet the turn.

If we add up the cases, then 9xAx64 - 16*B*40 + 9*C*12

That gives 572A - 640B +108C, where A, B and C are the likelihoods based on his turn betting. If we assumed, for simplicity, that A and C are equally likely, then it becomes a +EV call to stay involved if there is a less than 45% (approx) chance that he has the house.

Its a very tough decision, and would come down to preference and your read of the other guy I'd say. Having considered it, I think you probably did the right thing though.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Mr M,

I would have reraised him all in, in a heartbeat. Here's why.

He could have trips, two pair, top pair, 'gut shot drawing + pair' or bluffing. (The degrees to which is more likely you are good enough to calculate yourself without me patronising you).

Why would I reraise all in even though I don't have the nuts? I would do this because on low no limit tables like the $0.50 / $1.00 stuff I play it would be far more likely that he has caught part of the board but still needs a good river to match or beat my straight. If he's going to see that river card he's going to pay to see that card. Now I know some would argue that you will only be called for the $30 all in if he does have the goods - i.e the J, 10 - but in my experience THIS ISN'T THE CASE at low NL tables. I have been called by muppets more often with trips, two pair, top pair or gut shot draws so, so many more times than when they hold the full house that in my experience putting in the all in has definately been the longer term profitable move.

Now if you play much higher NL tables then your experiance might be different and naturally the opposition better. But on the NL tables I describe I would definately play as I have said above.

PS - I would have raised more than the pot after the flop too. Probably x2.

[GETT1NLOTS]

(The degrees to which is more likely you are good enough to calculate yourself without me patronising you).

Shit just realised after reading Doc's post above mine that he did calcualte all the odds and that my statement quoted above looks like a dig at him! I was writing my post at the same time as you Doc so I wasn't commenting on your posting style.

Honest.

[aliensyndm]

Doc you seem obssessed with raising pre-flop, is there any hand you won't raise pre-flop with ? There's nae danger I am raising pre-flop with KQ especially so in mid position.
Analysing your poker play is always a good thing but there's no danger you can do the kinda calculations you do in the 15 or so seconds you have to decide how to play your hand.
Question basically is......trips or a house ? Simple as that. In the 15 seconds you have you gotta think back for clues as to what it is from his better before. If someone actually did have a full house there would he want to raise ? Would he also raise more than the minimum ?
Also alot of players at those stakes seem to think you won't bet the nuts on the flop hence he might not think you had the nuts on the flop.
If you flop a set they automatically think you should check it hence they are left scratching their head when someone bets this and they get fucked.
This would probably make me want to stick him all in.
Yes it's a piggy if he flips the house but I think against yer average NL numpty they'll flip trips or less alot more often than a house.
Also cuts out any nasty decisions on the river. You are only playing this hand if you believe your straight is still good so might as well get all the cash in whilst you believe your hand is good.
Now is the time to bin it if you believe he does have it. Hard play to make and it's alot easier if you have some sort of idea about the player.
Worst thing about this is I guess you will never know.
Btw some bastard in the small blind with 6 10 suited rivered a one outer to make a straight flush and do in my beefcake flush last night, that's my worst beat for a while !

[Doc]

Doc you seem obssessed with raising pre-flop, is there any hand you won't raise pre-flop with ?

Yeah - I'm a raising lunatic

Seriously though, I think raising is the thing to do with a hand this strong first into the pot in middle position. You can get weak aces etc to fold behind you if you do. You have a good chance to buy the button, or even take the blinds down. You also gain information about any hand behind you that elects to stay in.

You probably have the best hand at the table now, so why not leverage that equity while you have it?

[mrmuzeman]

You can get weak aces etc to fold behind you if you do. You have a good chance to buy the button, or even take the blinds down. You also gain information about any hand behind you that elects to stay in.

Sorry Doc but thats just wrong for me. I dont give a fcuk if a weak ace stays in or not. I also dont give a fcuk about stealing the blinds? You say EVEN take down the blinds like thats some kind of result. You care about that in a cash game? I only gain information on a raise if I raise big (a 3bb people will call anyway they really dont care). Id have to raise probably 5 or 6bb to gain info and the only guys who call have better hands than me a lot of the time man. Im calling to flop flush draws/straight draws/2pair/trips etc with my KQs and then take it from there.

[Doc]

yes I do say even take the blinds down.

Lets take the following scenario:
50c/$1 blinds, no limpers and I'm in late middle position with KQs

Possibility A: I raise to 3 or 4BB and take the blinds
B: I raise to 3 or 4 BB, get called by one or two players and win
C: I raise to 3 or 4 BB, get called by one or two players and lose
D: I flat call and win against 4 or 5 players
E: I flat call and quit the pot without further investment
F: I flat call, invest more, but lose out to other hands

If you look at the EV's

A makes me $1.50
B probably makes about $10-$15
C probably loses about $5-8
D probably wins me about $10-$15
E loses me $1
F probably loses about $5-10

Now does the sum of DEF exceed that for ABC? I wouldn't think so - no doubt you'd disagree. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on how much more EV you think you have by flat-calling.

[Jezza]

Hmmm dodgy....I would have thought he would have raised the flop with two pair. Prob he has gutshot + trips like KJ or QJ, or a split with you. I raise him back all in and no doubt pay off his J10


Jez