Monday 23rd July Racing

[ONEDUNME]

All selections 10 point win or 5pt ew if over 6/1

Ayr
215 guttenburg
245 Devine spirit and whozart
315 Mystical Ayr

Yarmouth
300 Shipboard romance
400 Chiff Chaff
500 Don Pasquale (reserve Destert Hawk if non runner)

[jbgb007uk]

ODM you are very quick at picking horses. I keep harking on about my system and the ground, how do you pick yours?


I look through the form the night before and then sit down on the morning of the races and try to get a good knowledge of the ground, I do this by looking at different sites including the homepages for each track.
I choose horses that have won or been placed on the ground, and especially like horses who have course and distance form. I do this because a few of the tracks are peculiar and any form on the track can be a big bonus. I like doing this at tracks like Brighton, Epsom and Chester.
I like for instance to study the draw at Ayr, especially when the track is riding on the softer side. I will be looking at those drawn high tomorrow.

Do all the other members have specific criteria or is it just fancying horses or using the form?

[Bigkegman]

I think the going is one of the main factors - especially soft or worse.

Was in bookies last week and I looked at the form for a poor race with 6 or 7 runners none of the horses had won on anything better than good to soft and thought NO WAY - aiybody betting on this race needs their head sorted.

Fav was a disappointing last and most people in the bookies had punted it ???

[jbgb007uk]

I really love the british horse racing scene because of the changes in the ground. I prefer to watch races on the softer ground and I think you can land some really good bets by just looking at which horses go on the ground. I think this is the reason why betting on faves does not work very well in this country.

[ONEDUNME]

It's a fair question mate. The answer is that, whilst I appreciate that the going can be one of the most important factors in a race, I think that people can sometimes get bogged down (if you'll excuse the pun ) by placing too much importance on it. Don't get me wrong, I can understand with some of the ground we've been having lately that some punters would definitely be spending more time looking at the ground factor but past history is sometimes no guarantee of future performance.

I only have to go back to Friday to prove my point. The going was so bad (heavy) at Nottingham that the meeting had to be abandoned halfway through but if you look at the winner of the 320 race, you'll see that it's never ran on any ground better than good, whereas some of the others had experience on heavier ground. The fact that the horse was priced at 15/2 probably reflected the uncertainty and that's why I'm sometimes willing to take a chancer unless the ground is extreme.


The predicted going tomorrow is Good. At worst it will be good to soft and I only have concerns about one of the horses I've listed going on either of those. It's a bit of a stab in the dark in the 215 maiden race to know whether some of these are going to like the ground or not anyway but my selection ran well on good to soft on its only outing and I'm happy with that.

[jbgb007uk]

I was expecting that ODM. I used just to read the form literally, betting on the horse with the best form however has not proven profitable so I do now concentrate on the ground a hell of a lot.

Tomorrow at Ayr looks to be good ground, with the weather staying fair. I therefore have shortlisted the following

2.45 -
Divine Spirit - High draw CD winner on good ground and running well of late.
Whozart - High draw lightly raced and won on good ground
Legal Set - High draw won over C & D and in the best form - when out of handicap last time out

I look to be favouring the last selection at the moment

3.15 -
Hawkit loves the course and won on the ground
Sedgewick looks to be on a winning mark as does Neils Legacy

5.15 - Funfair Wane looks to be the one for me - Ayr Gold cup 2 wins from 4 and this is over C&D

Not looked at Yarmouth yet as its a course I cannot seem to pick

[toffeeman44]

Originally Posted by jbgb007uk

ODM you are very quick at picking horses. I keep harking on about my system and the ground, how do you pick yours?


I look through the form the night before and then sit down on the morning of the races and try to get a good knowledge of the ground, I do this by looking at different sites including the homepages for each track.
I choose horses that have won or been placed on the ground, and especially like horses who have course and distance form. I do this because a few of the tracks are peculiar and any form on the track can be a big bonus. I like doing this at tracks like Brighton, Epsom and Chester.
I like for instance to study the draw at Ayr, especially when the track is riding on the softer side. I will be looking at those drawn high tomorrow.

Do all the other members have specific criteria or is it just fancying horses or using the form?

by and large the going is the main deciding factor for me, at the moment due to the adverse weather im betting relatively little and small stakes, i always find the flat particularly difficult when it comes up really testing, the winners are that much more difficult to find, apart from that i tend to look for trainers in form etc, not sure i'll be playing too much this week due to the weather again, but shall be keeping a few quid in my tank for goodwood next week when i shall be lounging in southern spain for a fortnight internet betting, quaffing extremely cold lagers, and going out on ogling expeditions up and down the beaches - after a quick look the only one which stands out for me tomorrow is GOTHENBURG in the first at ayr, should have won at catterick bridge last time, is think its facing weaker opposition tomorrow, but shant be playing at odds on or even money at best - heres hoping the weather picks up!

bring on the beach babes

[jbgb007uk]

Originally Posted by toffeeman44

by and large the going is the main deciding factor for me, at the moment due to the adverse weather im betting relatively little and small stakes, i always find the flat particularly difficult when it comes up really testing, the winners are that much more difficult to find, apart from that i tend to look for trainers in form etc, not sure i'll be playing too much this week due to the weather again, but shall be keeping a few quid in my tank for goodwood next week when i shall be lounging in southern spain for a fortnight internet betting, quaffing extremely cold lagers, and going out on ogling expeditions up and down the beaches - after a quick look the only one which stands out for me tomorrow is GOTHENBURG in the first at ayr, should have won at catterick bridge last time, is think its facing weaker opposition tomorrow, but shant be playing at odds on or even money at best - heres hoping the weather picks up!

bring on the beach babes

I cannot wait for Goodwood too, as I will be there on the Thursday (my birthday) and Saturday, bring it on. I went last year on the Saturday for the Nassau Stakes and I am looking forward to it once again, hopefully I can have a more profitable week though.

[jtw1]

Going , Distance , Class , Fitness [ran under 21 days] ,BHB rating , Current form , Trainer-form . Thats what i look at to start with , anything that doesn't fit gets rejected and that usually leaves 1 or 2 to consider .

---

3.15 - HAWKIT - The deciding factor for me with this one is that the MONTEITH stable has hit form with 3 winners from July 15th [ from only 8 runners] , albeit they were over the jumps !!
HAWKITS course record is 2 wins +2 places from 8 runs.
Dist record is 1 win + 1 place from 4 .
Jockey D GIBSON has ridden it to place 3 times from 5 rides.
RATED 65 today which is 4lb and 1 lb ,respectively , lower than its last 2 wins.
It had both PENZO + MYSTICAL AYR behind it LTO at HAMILTON and i can see no reason why those 2 at least should finish in front of the selection this time.

[ONEDUNME]

No offence JTW but I see having rigid criteria like that as automatically ruling out winners. For example, if you look at how many horses end up winning that haven't been out in the last three weeks.

Surely if one has been off the track for six months and has a history of having come back fresh and ran well, it's got to be worth consideration.

[jbgb007uk]

Right gonna go through the Ayr card in full.

2.15 - Looks a virtual match-up - Nawaaff & Gothenburg

Nawaaff is running for the fourth time with a record of 232 so far, and has the most experience of the two fancied runners. Gothenburg has only had one run where he finished 2nd at Catterick Bridge. That race has seemingly worked out well with the third placed horse winning since. On debut Gothenburg idled in front when in the last furlong and should come on for the experience.

However at 4/5 is not a bet, and with number 5 out of the race there is only 8 runners so EW betting looks restricted too.

2.45 - 5 furlong Handicap

I am going to look at the high drawn horses here, 18 runners are declared for this race. My first horse is Divine Spirit, who runs off the same weight as when placed last time out in this company. This horse has talent but is a pain in the backside, it never wins (5% win ratio), always getting hampered at the start and fighting back gallently to be beaten by a head or so. Today has a good draw but once again will drop out of the stalls and need to fight back, and may find this big field against him.
In a high draw is Whozart who is down in the weights and is less exposed than most of his rivals. However this horse has not got the ability of Divine Spirit but is more genuine.
I will take these two against the field at 4/1 each.

3.15 - 1m 1furlong Handicap

12 runners and 2 that I really like, Hawkit and Neil's Legacy, both C&D winners and winners on good ground. They both are in good form and could well take this race and with prices of 11/2 and 3/1 respectively can be dutched.

3.45 - 6 furlong handicap

The best race of the card for me. However it looks a really trappy race with all 7 runners in with a chance. I think I will side with Linda Green in this with Hugh in the saddle and a drop in the weights likely to prove big benefits. However looks to be a no bet race.

4.15 - 1m 1furlong handicap

Another trappy race and another no bet as none have really solid form for this race.

4.45 - 6 furlong handicap

The jolly looks to be the one to be with in this race, but is a no play because of the low draw. I might be tempted if it drifts out past 5/2.

5.15 - 6 furlong handicap

I really want Funfare Wane to win this, this horse is a legend and still has some good form to his name. He is drawn well and can run well in this company. I think Newsround could also run a big race. I will take these two against the field at 11/2 and 8/1 respectively

I will also do some EW doubles with Hawkit + Neils Legacy in the 3.15 with Funfare Wane + Newsround in the last

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by ONEDUNME

No offence JTW but I see having rigid criteria like that as automatically ruling out winners. For example, if you look at how many horses end up winning that haven't been out in the last three weeks.

Surely if one has been off the track for six months and has a history of having come back fresh and ran well, it's got to be worth consideration.

Quite right ODM , didn't mean to imply that i would ignore any horse that didn't match all the criteria i mentioned [ although looking at it again thats exactly what i does look like ]

The main criteria are GOING + DISTANCE + CURRENT FORM ,if a horse has a negative on any of those , then i would discard them straight away .

Days since last run , Class type of race and Trainer / Stable form are ones that i can give a bit of leeway about .
As you rightly say some have a record of running well after a long break , or have decent placed form in a higher or same class of race than at the level it has won over.
Those are criteria where you have to try and make a balanced decision on.

Good luck today

[jtw1]

Nice start mate

[jbgb007uk]

Two winners from my write up so far and my doubles are still on - come on the Funfair Wane and Newsround.

Also Sforzando in the 4.00 @ 10/1 EW

[jtw1]

HAWKIT - Least said the better

WINDSOR 8.50 - As poor a Class 5 handicap as you'll find and it could pay to go with the top-weighted maiden ,LADY FRIEND.
This is her Handicap debut and a reproduction of her 2nd outing which was round C/D on G/S should give her a decent chance with the rest of her opponents well-exposed or out of form .
Claimer P HILLS takes the ride again with a 5lb allowance