Trends

[smk415]

f me jt great going, keep it up

[jtw1]

Cheers mate , to be honest i can't recall ever having a better winning streak in 30 years of punting !!!! long may it continue .


1000 gns
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10/10 were returned at 14/1 or under [3 favs ]
9/10 had won once in prev 2 outings
9/10 had won at least 2 races
9/10 had won at leats at Grp 3 level
9/10 sires ave was 7.9f - 10.7f
4/5 that had ran that season had won
9/10 had ran between 3-7 times
8/10 had ran at Newmarket [ 6 had won at course ] , the other two were trained outside of UK.


It looks like the following will start at 14/1 or UNDER for the 2nd Classic of the season.

NATAGORA has ran 5 times , won on it's seasonal reappearance , won 4 in total at Grp 1,2 + 3 level of which the last was a course win. May try and make all imo. No French trained winner in past 10 years.

INFALLIBLE has ran only twice [ won both however ] inc a win this season in the NELL GWYN at Newmarket . It's has a negative however as it's sires winning ave is only 7.6f.

SPACIOUS only had 2 previous outings [ won both , although none at Newmarket ] and won at Grp 2 level and sires winning ave is 9.7f.

MUTHABARA has a 100% record from it's 3 runs and one of those was a Grp 3 race and it's sires ave is 8.7f . However it has no experience of the track.

KITTY MATCHAM comes from AP O'BRIENS stable and has ran 5 times , winning twice [ inc one at Grp 2 level ] .Sires winning ave is 9.5f and is a course winner .

SAVETHISDANCEFOME is AP O'BRIEN'S 2nd string and has only won at Listed level so i'll be surprised if this one wins.


SUMMARY - NATAGORA has a Favs chance but i have doubts about whether it will stay the 8f at this level .
INFALLIBLE'S sires ave is enough to put me off , while SPACIOUS + MUTHABARA have no experience of the track.
SAVETHISDANCEFORME looks out of it's depth so i'm selecting it's stable companion KITTY MATCHAM to win this at decent odds

[jtw1]

KITTY MATCHAM - UNP


CURRAGH 2.45 GRP 3 COLTS+ FILLIES 7F

10/10 won by a COLT.
10/10 had a sires winning ave of between 7.9f and 9.9f
8/8 with a BHA rating were rated 95 - 111 , [ last 5 rated 105 - 111 ]
9/10 won by either 1st or 2nd FAV.
9/10 had ran once THIS season but no more than twice.
ALL had ran between 2-7 times.
9/10 had ran UNDER 31 DAYS previously.
8/10 had ran over 7f/1m LTO.
9/10 had WON that season
7/10 had won at either LISTED or GRP 3 level
ALL had won at least one race in it's career.

Taking the first 2 that are showing on BETFAIR , then this should be a match between BRUGES + GREAT WAR EAGLE .

BRUGES has won it's 2 career runs , one of which was a LISTED event on G/S over tdays distance of 7f. Sires winning ave = 9.1f . Doesn't have a BHA rating yet unfortunatly but would assume it would be 100+.
Only negative is the fact that it is making it's debut today .
The stable , altough no winners in 14 days , have had 4 2nd places from 7 runners.

GREAT WAR EAGLE come from the WACHMAN stable who won this in 2005 . It is rated 106 [top rating ] and has won over the distance in a LISTED event on the AW track at DUNDALK .
I'ts sires ave is slightly below the mark at 7.5f and ,like BRUGES , is making it's seasonal debut today .
If the ground is on the soft side of good then that could be a negative as it has won on GD / G/F / AW . After that AW wins the trainer stated that it may run again if he gets good ground so i'm taking that as a sign that a bit of give will not suit.

Therefore the selection is BRUGES , looks like starting fav and no less than 8 clear and JT favs have won this in 10 runnings.

[jtw1]

CURRAGH 4.10 10f Grp 3
-------------------------

10/10 were in the top 3 in the betting [ 9/10 were top 2 ]
10/10 had WON over 10f .
9/10 were 4y-olds.
5/5 [ race was upgraded to Grp 3 in 2003 ] had won at Listed level or above.
9/10 had a BHA rating of 110 - 116.


So if we take out ALARAZI , HASANKA + FERNELEY as those 3 are only rated 104 , 102 and 108 respectively . Also those 3 and MORES WELLS don't look like starting in the top 3 in the betting .
JUMBAJUKIBA is a 5y-old and has not won beyond 8f.
MOUNT NELSON although a Grp 1 winner hasn't won beyond 8f.

That leaves us with EZIMA and the GB raider REGIME both at 2nd Fav with BETFAIR at the moment.

EZIMA is a C/D winner at LISTED level with a rating of 112 and won FTO last season .

REGIME comes from M L BELL stable and has won over the distance at Grp 3 level . Rated 112 last time out . Taking a drop back in distance from 12 f but with P SMULLEN on board i think it could be worth an interest .

REGIME is the selection due to that Grp 3 win.

[Snodser]

Regime

Cheers jtw1

[jtw1]

Cheers SNODSER

BRUGES unp @ 3/1

REGIME 1ST @ 5/1

[Cinny]

Was too late down to the bookies for your first selection so was there in time for regime, once again thanks a super selection, managed to hold it at 6/1 as well!!

loved the way smullen punched it out to the line

[Mighty Magyar]

Great going Too busy to look in y/day

[jtw1]

CHESTER 1.45 5F Class 2 Cond stakes
----------------------------------------


9/11 were in the first 3 in the betting [ 5 FAVS , 1 JT]
10/11 had ran AND won at least once.
9/10 last ran within 21 days.
The draw plays it's part and stalls 1+2+3 have won 8 from 11.


The first 3 in the betting are -

SHE'S A SHAW THING - Will definately atsrt Fav after it's 2 wins but has not ran for 35 days and is drawn in stall 4 and this is the first time it will have encountered ground better than G/S.

DONCASTER ROVER - 2nd in the BROCKLESBY on it's only outing , which was 46 days ago. Drawn 2 and has Dettori onboard.

WHITE SHIFT is the stable companion of the Fav but could cause an upset having ran [and won] only 7 days ago and is drawn in 3 and this is part of the report of that race at Great Leighs -

WHITE SHIFT was seemingly unfancied in the betting but her stable has made a bright start to the season, especially with their two-year-olds, and she showed terrific natural pace to blast out and make all the running. She holds an entry in a valuable sales race in Ireland and can only go on from here, indeed her trainer said afterwards that he had left plenty to work on fitness wise.

WHITE SHIFT can upset the FAV here imo.

[jtw1]

4.00 CHESTER 10f Class 3 Maiden
------------------------------------


9/10 returned in single figure odds [ 5 FAVS ]
8/10 was a Colt.
9/10 had previous run , 7 of those that season fininshing no worse than 5th.
8/10 had a sires ave of 8.8f - 11.1f
5/9 that had a previous outing had last ran over the distance of 10f.
J GOSDEN has won 3 , B HILLS won 2

Quick summary [ getting late ] - GOSDEN'S finished 6th LTO and sires ave only 7.2f [ prev low was 7.8f]. HILL'S DARAHEM has ran twice [ 2nd LTO ] and will have a Favs chance.
MAARASED is owned by HAMDAN AL MAHKTOUM who also has DARAHEM and the owners main jockey , R HILLS , favours the FAV.
KINGS CHARM comes from the NOSEDA stable [ 4 wins and five 2nds from 14 runners in past fortnight ] . The most interesting stat is the booking of DETTORI to ride as he has a 34% [ 15 wins from 44 rides ] on the stable's 3y-olds. 4th in the WOOD DITTON [ 2 places in front of MOONQUAKE ] the sires ave is just below the preferred at 8.6f but there seems to be plenty of stamina on the dams side.
Probably 2nd FAV and worth an interest.

[Mighty Magyar]

With you all the way on those G/Luck.

[jtw1]

WHITE SHIFT 3rd @ 8/1 Well it did beat the fav , it was 4th !! Race won by DONCASTER ROVER.

KINGS CHARM NR

Had a good look at THURSDAY'S racing but nothing doing for me.

[jtw1]

CHESTER 2.45 13f Grp 3 Stakes
---------------------------------

10/10 were Southern trained
9/10 were either FAV or 2nd FAV
9/10 were 4 or 5 y-olds
9/10 had won or been placed in Group 3 or above.
10/10 were rated 106 - 119
8/10 had won at either 12f/14f
7/10 had ran that seaon , finishing no worse than 5th.

Had a look at BETFAIR + BL SQUARE and the both have MCARTHUR + RAINCOAT as fav/2nd fav respectively.

MCARTHUR has been placed at GR 2 + 3 level , is a 4y-old , but has only won at 8f and has ran this season finishing back in 7th.
However he has only went down but a couple of lengths at 14/15f in Grp company and it's run this season was on Soft going [ needs Good or better ] over an inadequate 10f. Rated 112

RAINCOAT has also been placed at Grp 3 level , is a 4y-old and has winning form at 12f . Has ran + won this season . Rated 109

Sticking strictly to the stats then i should nominate RAINCOAT as the selection but on closer inspection MCARTHUR has been running at a higher level , being beaten only 2 and half lengths in the ST LEGER [G1] , 1 and half lengths in the VOLTIGEUR [G2] and 2 and three quarters in the LEOP Derby trial [G2] and as i said earlier , it's one outing thias tear was on unsutable ground and over too short a distance.
Not a strong Group 3 here so i'm going for MCARTHUR [ Get yer cash on RAINCOAT !! ]

[Mighty Magyar]

Nice one Jt remembered to back it just before the off.

[Cinny]

JT i salute you! superb, youve just ensured my footy bets for tonight are free cheers