Trends

[jtw1]

LUCARNO unp

Got to ride the storm folks , the winners will return , just a pity i couldn't tell you when !!!!!!!!!!

[Cinny]

unlucky mate, they will come certainly!

[jtw1]

Couldn't get on here yesterday , luckily the selection was 4th


Anyway onto the SUSSEX STAKES at Glorious Goodwood and in summary we're looking for a Previous Grp 1 winner or a close 2nd in Grp 1 company [7/10 ].
Inthe top 4 in the betting [9/10]
Rated 115 + [10/10]
Age - 5 x3yo's , 5 x 4yo+.

Ok so out of the 7 declared runners - MAJOR CADEAUX [ No wins or close 2nd in G1 + rated 114 ] , DREAM EATER [ rated 111 ] , WINDSOR PALACE [200/1 reflects it's chance ] and WINKER WATSON [ no wins/place G1 ] are discounted straight away .

TARIQ - Rated 115 and has finished 2nd [ btn 1l] in a Group 1 but has doubts about staing with no wins over the mile [ 3/4 were over 7f the other was a 6f race]

HENRYTHENAVIGATOR - Rated 124 and with 3 Grp 1 wins all over the mile looks sure to start a very short priced Fav .

RAVENS PASS - Rated 121 and although it has not won a Grp 1 it was only btn three quarters of a length by HTN at Royal Ascot , then was reportedly a shade unlucky when 2nd in a G1 over in France LTO means that i'm nominating this one to surprise the fav .
Should be no doubts about the distance and hopefully the small field will be to it's advantage.

[jtw1]

OOH so near !!! RAVENS PASS 2nd

Had no time to study post yesterday and today the First race has only just been upgraded to Grp 3 so no main bets today .
However i've done a bit of scouting around the other meetings and there's a couple at Thirsk that catch the eye .

2.05 - M CHANNON has ran 5 in this over the past 10 seasons with 3 winning at odds of 5/2, 11/4 and 7/2 .
The 2 unplaced were 12/1 and 33/1.
Today he runs SCENIC PASS who looks like starting in the top 3 in the betting , has a tricky draw but has been running well in Nurseries .

3.15 -
This has been won by a 3yo [8/9]
Southern trained [7/9]
FAV - [7/9]

As it stands right now - AFLAAM fits the bill although the trainer states that it might not run if the ground is unsuitable .
If thats the case just bet the FAV as it's sure to fit the other 2 stats .

[jtw1]

SCENIC PASS - UNP @ 11/4 F
AFLAAM 1ST @ 2/5 F

Another one of these in the 1st at Thirsk today -

2.00 -

8/10 FAVS
8/10 COLTS

M Johnston - 2wins
T Easteby - 2wins
M Channon - 1 win

Go with the FAV , providing it's one of the Colts.

[Kop66]

Nice going JT

Thirsk 2.00 Full Result

1st 4 Lucky Art (USA) 5-2 F
2nd 3 Enderby Spirit (GR) 11-4
3rd 2 Dark Lane 33-1

Fav and Colt, won comfortably

[jtw1]

Cheers KOP , sometimes it pays to keep it simple

[jtw1]

Back from hols and here's a tentative selection for Wednesday -

SALISBURY 4.05 10f Listed
-----------------------------

9/10 were returned at 13/2 or under
6/10 were 3yo's , 4/10 were 4yo's
8/9 with a BHA rating were rated 95+

Record of 4yo's that started 13/2 or under in the past 10 seasons= 1st , 1st , 1st [2nd was 4yo @ 7/1]

A FABRE has had 7 winners from 20 runners in the UK in the past 5 seasons


There looks like being 4 that will start around 13/2 or under on betfair and those are -

IN THE LIGHT
BASQUE BEAUTY
ICON PROJECT
CAPE AMBER

BASQUE BEAUTY [3yo] is only rated 90 but is only having it's 3 career outing here so is well open to improvement.
ICON PROJECT [3yo] rated 105 , will not run if there is further rain and the forecast isn't too promising.
CAPE AMBER [3yo] rated 104 , and comes from the CHAPPEL-HYAM yard who , despite having had a couple of lower grade winners in the past couple of days are still firing well short of expectation.

IN THE LIGHT comes from the A FABRE stable , definately a stranger at this course ] and is a 4yo .
It has won twice [once on SOFT the other on GOOD] and been placed 9 times from 12 runs , so it's consistent !!
R MOORE takes the ride here so with some doubts over the youngsters and the good record of fancied 4yos + FABRE'S UK record i think it could be worth an interest.

[jtw1]

[jtw1]

ARABIAN GLEAM 4th


Ain't gonna get involved with the Ebor meeting as YORK + HEAVY going do not favour the formbook or stats .
If i may offer a small bit of advice then it's follow the front runners .When the conditions are as bad as forecasted at this track it's VERY hard to show a turn of foot .

[jtw1]

WINDSOR 6.50 Grp 3 10f g/f
-------------------------------

10/10 were returned at 8/1 or under [ 5 favs]
10/10 had ran between 2 - 5 times that season
9/10 had won or been placed at Listed/Group level , those that had not won at those grade's had at least won a Class 2 event.
8/10 were rated 102+
8/10 had won that season
8/10 had been placed 1st - 4th LTO
5 x 3yo's have won
4 x 4yo's have won
Sir M Stoute has won this 4 times from 5 runners in the past 8 season's

Here's those that are on 8/1 or under with the bookies and reason's for selection/rejection.

SILVER PIVOTAL - has not ran since 15th March , so technically this is his turf seasonal debut.

SUPASEUS - 5yo

GULF EXPRESS - 4yo rated 105 who has ran 5 times this season , won at Cl 2 grade and won LTO .Trained by M STOUTE

STOTSFOLD - 5yo

BUSHMAN - Only won at Class 3 grade

UNNEFER - 3yo who is rated 111 , has won at Listed grade and been btn a sh-hd in a Grp 3 , ran 4 times this season winning twice but was out of the frame LTO.

Summary - GULF EXPRESS narrowly gets the vote from UNNEFER by the fact of it's placing LTO but mainly due to the STOUTE factor.

[jtw1]

Trying to regain an interest in our 4-legged friends , so being a naturally lazy sod here's a couple of quick pointers for Saturdays CHEPSTOW card .

3-40 - A Juvenile Novice Hurdle which has been won by the FAV no fewer than 8 times from the past 9 runnings .
So simply go for the Fav here .

4-15 - Phillip HOBB'S record here is 1 , 1 , 2 , 4 , 1 , 1 since 98' .
He has the probable 2nd Fav in the shape of I HEAR A SYMPHONY.

[jtw1]

Well thats what i get for trying the lazy approach , so it looks like some more study will hopefully yield results .

FRIDAY - NEWMARKET 3.45 10f Listed
---------------------------------------

7/10 were 3yo's
8/10 were in the top 6 in the betting
8/10 had won or been placed at Listed /Group level
8/10 were placed 4th or WORSE LTO.
8/10 were rated 100+
The previous 6 winners had not ran since August .

Using the stats we can reduce the 11 runner race down to 3 by applying the age / odds criteria .
With only 5 three year olds declared , and 2 of those are 16/1+ , that leaves us with -

CLASSIC REMARK
MOON SISTER
SPACIOUS

4 Favs have won from 10 so SPACIOUS is not without a chance but she has ran as lately as the 4th October and with the stable having had 21 runners in the past 14 days of which NONE have won , added to the fact that she has ever tackled this distance before , makes me loath to go for the Fav.

MOON SISTER ran her best race LTO when 4l 2nd in a Listed event and is rated 100 , however i am of the opinion that she is still lacking the class to take this race and that race was only 30 days ago.

So the selection is CLASSIC REMARK , which is the mount of Frankie Dettori , who has a 23% strike rate for J Fanshawe , trainer of SPACIOUS , so the question is why is he not on the Fav ??
CLASSIC REMARK last ran 54 days ago back on the 24th of August when 9th in a Group 3 race .
Rated 108 here and a 10f winner i think the 8/1 on offer is afair price although there could a couple of non-runners due to ground conditions so beware of deductions if you get on early.

[jtw1]

CLASSIC REMARK unp and 4y-olds filled the top 3 positions

NEWMARKET 5.35 Group 3 16f
------------------------------

10/10 ran in at least Listed/Group class LTO
9/10 were returned at 9/1 or under
8/9 which had a BHA rating were rated 109+
Take out the great PERSIAN PUNCH [ 3 times winner ] and those other 7 winners had ran between 4-6 times that season.

So , using Betfair's current odds that removes BIG ROBERT, HOST NATION , CARTE DIAMOND + CLASSIC PUNCH .

FUILIN is only rated 102 so that one's out of the equation

VERACITY has only ran twice this season and LTO was only a Class 3 event.

BALKAN KNIGHT will be having his 9th outing of the season here and although it has won a couple of small-field Listed races i can't see this one winning.

SAGARA has a rating of 109 and ran LTO in Listed company but with only 1 career win win to his name [ 3yo French Maiden ] and the fact that Dettori has chosen to ride VERACITY makes it an easy choice to leave out

So the winner is DISTINCTION !! , coming from the Stoute yard who won this in 2000 , indeed DISTINCTION was 4th in this last year .
Rated 112 and ran in Listed grade LTO , has won 5 Listed events and a Group 2 back in 2005 .
Has ran 5 times this season and although a 9yo this race has been won by a 6 7 and 8 y-o in 3 of the last 4 runnings and PERSIAN PUNCH was 7 , 9 and 10 when winning his treble .

[jtw1]

DISTINCTION - UNP

Switching to the jumps to try and regain an interest in the game.


3.00 WETHERBY Grade 2 hurdle 25f G/F
----------------------------------------

10/10 were returned at 12/1 or Under [ 3 favs, but 3 odds-on were beaten]
10/10 were aged 6yo+
8/10 were aged between 8 and 11 yo
10/10 were rated 136+
9/10 had won between 22 - 26f
9/10 had won/been placed at Grade 1/2/3 level
4/10 [inc the last 3] had ran in both the Long distance hurdle at Aintree and/or the World hurdle at Cheltenham in the previous season.
8/8 5yo's have ran and been beaten , all were returned at 15/2 or under , with 2 starting fav.

Taking the top 5 in the betting gives and we have -

MOBAASHER who has won over 24f and was 3rd in a Gr 1 but is only a 5yo and won only at Cl 2 level so i'm discounting that one along with LIBERATE for exactly the same reason's ie only won at Cl 2 grade and is a 5yo.

FAASEL has won at Grade 1 class and is a 7yo but has never won beyond 19f so i;magaisnt this one for that reason.

PETTIFOUR is a 6yo who has won a Grade 1 event and has been victorious over 25f . TWISTON-DAVIES is certainly a man in form BUT a cause of concern is the fact that this horse has only ran 5 times and no previous winner has had as few outings .
Added to the fact that although it has won on Good going it's other 2 wins were on softer going .

That leaves us with the PIPE trained LOUGH DERG as the selection .
If the stable hadn't had a winner at UTTOXETER today i may well have nominated NTD's runner as the selection but that winner puts a different complection on this race .
LOUGH DERG has won at GR1 + 2 level , has won over 25f , is an 8yo [ 5 out of 10 winners came from that vintage ] , ran in last season's Long Dist at Aintree and the World at Chelt , has won 3 times on G/F going and 3 times on Good .
It has a decent record when running fresh [ 60day gap ] -1,1,5,2,3,3.

So i suggest having an Each-way bet on LOUGH DERG [ providing there's no non-runners] and as long as 8/1 is available.