Grand National: 8th April

[crowie]

Good stuff Seen, thats the sort of stats I look for each year in the National, does rule out a large % of the field.

Whats your view on the lack of French bred winners?

[slick]

Nice one Seen, tried to pick my winner last yr with a similar system but tried to cheapscape with the criteria to reduce my shortlist and crossed of the winner like a silly cnut

I did get the 2 winners b4 that mind @ 25/1 with Montys pass and Amberleigh House, my only 2 winners ever truth be known in the National.

Anyhow i had a dream last night and saw a horse coming home with black and yellow hoops on, well not the horse but the jockey, i'm not one for believing in dreams but i may as well chance my arm.
My dream said the horse was the derby winner but i think it was a bit of a mix up as they were over the jumps so i'll take it as the national winner.

Any yellow and black silks in the National? or maybe any name relating to a bee or a wasp? (have to cover every angle )

I'll also give Seens system a bash if nobody beats me to it b4 Saturday and see what that throws up.

[Seen]

Originally Posted by crowie

Good stuff Seen, thats the sort of stats I look for each year in the National, does rule out a large % of the field.

Whats your view on the lack of French bred winners?

Not too sure to be honest, been reading the opinions on the Attheraces site and the guy on there says this about them....

Remarkably, a French-bred has not won the Grand National since 1909. True, it is only very recently they have attacked the race in any great numbers and four French-breds have finished second in the last ten years but they have represented over 25% of the total runners in the last five seasons without any success and the principal reason for their collective failures is their inability to stay. No less than 14 of last season's 40-strong field were of Gallic descent but only one could finish in the first half-dozen. The previous year only Clan Royal of their 11 starters completed the race whilst all 12 French-breds in 2003 finished unplaced.

He sites their failures as being a lack of stamina, which has logical reasoning. CLAN ROYAL being an ideal example, pulls too hard then runs out of fuel after looking the likely winner.

My stats narrowed the field down to 14 (I analysed the top 50 in the weights), which is too many, so adding the no-French-breds rule this lot is trimmed down to a more manageable 7.

BF odds / best bookies odds / horse

18.5 - 16/1 - SIR REMBRANDT
42.0 - 25/1 - SILVER BIRCH
100.0 - 40/1 - EBONY LIGHT
380.0 - 66/1 - BALLYCASSIDY
21.0 - 25/1 - GARVIVONNIAN
310.0 - 100/1 - TYNEANDTYNEAGAIN
26.0 - 20/1 - ROSS COMM

I'm backing them all, cos if I leave just one out the damn thing is sure to win. Wouldn't it be nice for one of the huge priced ones to win

[Seen]

Just read that BALLYCASSIDY is an unlikely runner, so that leaves 6.

[bluek]

On the subject of dreams, i dreamt Jack High won it last night. So my short-short (subject to change on a complete whim) list is:

Garvivonnian
Numbersixvalverde
Ross Comm

and due to my lack of presence on here lately Lord of Illusion.

Oh, and the one i had the dream about

[collette38dd]

As for the French failures: foreign horses get stitched up at the weights, according to my memory and the weight band that Seen has reviewed will be lower imo because all the field are in the handicap proper this year.

as for the winner ???? but placing in a previous National doesn't hurt..

my tip - play for fun in this spectacle obstacle race, i haven't a clue myself of course i stick to low class 2m hurdlers so i'll be glad when this weekend is over.

[Beanie]

The Final 40:


1 42F-51520 ROYAL AUCLAIR 9-11-12
Christian Williams Paul Nicholls
Meets Hedgehunter on 9lbs better terms than when runner-up, beaten 14 lengths, last year.
Bad stat: No top-weight has won since Red Rum in the 1970s.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 16-1



2 0611-0422 HEDGEHUNTER 10-11-12
Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins IRE
Comfortable winner of 2005 race. More weight this time, but impressive when second in the Cheltenham Gold Cup recently. Respected.
Rating: 8/10 Odds: 5-1


3 1332-330 CORNISH REBEL 9-11-09
Joe Tizzard Paul Nicholls
Brother of triple Gold Cup winner Best Mate. Placed in the Scottish and Welsh Nationals last year.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 20-1


4 330-001 THEREALBANDIT 9-11-09
Richard Johnson Martin Pipe
Highly-rated novice before losing his way. Won nicely on last run at Wetherby in December. Trainer took the race with Miinnehoma, owned by comic Freddie Starr, in 1994.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 40-1


5 1042-404 IT TAKES TIME 12-11-07
Timmy Murphy Martin Pipe
Time marches on for this 12-year-old. Fourth in 2005 for champion trainer, who has suffered indifferent form this season and looks like losing his title to Paul Nicholls.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 33-1


6 225-5000 LE ROI MIGUEL 8-11-07
Liam Heard Paul Nicholls
Along with Le Duc, leased for day by a trio including Pop Idol judge Simon Cowell, who will net £1m for the NSPCC charity should the horse triumph. A good cause, but unlikely to be a winning one.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 50-1


7 1-340253 NATIVE UPMANSHIP 13-11-00
Conor O'Dwyer Arthur Moore IRE
Has run with credit at the highest level during a distinguished career. Jockey fresh from Gold Cup success on War of Attrition.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 66-1


8 0210-011 INNOX 10-10-13
Robert Thornton Francois Doumen FR
Consistent French horse ran a big race last year before tiring into seventh place. Won Racing Post Chase. A danger if he can last out.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 16-1


9 4P/111-4PP SILVER BIRCH 9-10-12
Sam Thomas Paul Nicholls
Looked a Grand National natural when winning the Welsh equivalent in 2004 and claiming the Becher Chase over the National fences. Failed to recapture that form after an injury.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 25-1




10 3112140 WHISPERED SECRET 7-10-12
Rodi Greene Martin Pipe
Performed well at a much lower level. It's no secret this is not the main contender in trainer's team.
Bad stat: No novice has won the National for nearly 50 years.
Rating: 4/10 Odds: 66-1


11 65-04504 RINCE RI 13-10-12
Andrew McNamara Ted Walsh IRE
A grand servant who has faced some of the best chasers of recent years. No win for more than three years tells its own story.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 50-1


12 5UU1/60- PUNTAL 10-10-12
Barry Geraghty Martin Pipe
Went on to win Betfred Gold Cup after unseating his rider when prominent in National two seasons ago. Returning from injury after 16-month break. Benefits from jockey who won the race on Monty's Pass in 2003.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 50-1


13 111-P020 LORD OF ILLUSION 9-10-11
Jason Maguire Tom George
One of the more talented outsiders. Found the competition too hot when down the field in last month's Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 25-1


14 1401F10 EBONY LIGHT 10-10-10
Stephen Craine Ginger McCain
Chance based on win in Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock. One of three runners for retiring Aintree training legend Ginger McCain as he seeks a record fifth win.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 33-1


15 2P2-5PUP FIRST GOLD 13-10-10
Richard McGrath Francois Doumen FR
Former winner of the King George VI Chase. But that was five years ago, and is no longer the glittering star of previous years.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 66-1


16 12/4C-531 CLAN ROYAL 11-10-10
Tony McCoy Jonjo O'Neill
Can it be third time lucky? Second when rider lost his whip near the finish in 2004 and then carried out when travelling well last year. National is one big race missing from champion jockey's CV.
Rating: 8/10 Odds: 11-2


17 330-02U LE DUC 7-10-10
Jamie Moore Paul Nicholls
Twice placed in other races over the National fences. Runs for champion trainer elect, who is seeking his first win in the Grand National.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 33-1




18 504-6511F SIR OJ 9-10-10
Paul Carberry Noel Meade IRE
Won Robin Cook Memorial Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November, but this is nearly two miles further. Jockey landed 1999 National on Bobbyjo, and will be looking to finish ahead of his sister, Nina, who's aboard Forest Gunner.


19 115-UPP FOREST GUNNER 12-10-10
Nina Carberry Richard Ford
Twice a winner over the National fences. Fifth when ridden by trainer's wife, Carrie Ford, in 2005 National. This time top Irish amateur Nina Carberry bids to become first woman to ride winner of the big race.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 40-1


20 1-2U0440 JOES EDGE 9-10-10
Davy Russell Ferdy Murphy
Winner of last season's Scottish Grand National. Looks like the ground, trip and flat track could suit. Fancied to do well by some shrewd judges.
Rating: 8/10 Odds: 25-1


21 22102-FP2 JUVEIGNEUR 9-10-09
Mick Fitzgerald Nicky Henderson
Decent performance when second in the William Hill Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. However, fell at the first in the Becher Chase when last trying these fences.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 33-1


22 400-P5000 AMBERLEIGH HOUSE 14-10-09
Graham Lee Ginger McCain
Brought Red Rum's trainer his fourth win in the race in 2004. Horse also finished third the year before. Now 14, age looks to be against him.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 50-1


23 113050350 BALLYCASSIDY 10-10-09
Leighton Aspell Peter Bowen
Front-runner who often performs with credit, although came down at the second in this race last year.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 50-1


24 10-561511 INCA TRAIL 10-10-09
Brian Harding Ginger McCain
Bought by McCain from trainer Paul Nicholls for more than £100,000 just a fortnight before the National. Quirky younger brother to triple Gold Cup winner Best Mate.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 50-1


25 006513 GARVIVONNIAN 11-10-08
Garrett Cotter Ned Mitchell IRE
Another interesting contender from a strong Irish raiding party. Won the Becher Chase, sometimes a good guide to this race, over the National fences in November. Could well be involved at the finish.
Rating: 8/10 Odds: 25-1


26 1-504B443 NUMBERSIXVALVERDE 10-10-08
Niall Madden Martin Brassil IRE
A nightmare for headline writers, named after owner's Portugal holiday home. Won Irish Grand National. Jockey is nicknamed Slippers (his dad's known as 'Boots'). Treading a similar path to previous winners.
Rating: 9/10 Odds: 10-1


27 F6/0200-00 IZNOGOUD 10-10-08
Tom Scudamore Martin Pipe
Easy to suggest chances are reflected in his name. Did finish 12th in last year's National at odds of 125-1.
Rating: 4/10 Odds: 66-1


28 1-3045351 JACK HIGH 11-10-07
David Casey Ted Walsh IRE
Talkative trainer won the race with Papillon in 2000. Says his son Ruby's mount, Hedgehunter, is the one to beat, but Jack High was second in the Irish National before winning the Betfred Gold Cup at Sandown.
Rating: 8/10 Odds: 20-1


29 2-253615 HAUT DE GAMME 11-10-07
Keith Mercer Ferdy Murphy
Boasts decent form over the National fences. Trying marathon trip for first time. Would be a dream victory for rider, who's a local lad.
Rating: 8/10 Odds: 20-1


30 416-00P42 NIL DESPERANDUM 9-10-07
Tommy Treacy Frances Crowley IRE
Finished sixth in the 2005 National. Would need heavy ground to boost chances.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 40-1


31 16216-P4P BARON WINDRUSH 8-10-07
Carl Llewellyn Nigel Twiston-Davies
A dour stayer who may be plugging on at the finish if still standing, albeit some way behind his rivals.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 40-1


32 51P0-624 HEROS COLLONGES 11-10-07
JP McNamara Paul Nicholls
Eighth in the race last year when suspicion was the trip may be too far. Looked a similar story when second in this season's Welsh Grand National.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 40-1


33 101PP/-64 TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN 11-10-07
Peter Buchanan Howard Johnson
Trainer will be doing a rain dance as the horse relishes heavy conditions. Won the 2004 Eider Chase before missing all of last season through injury. Rating: 5/10 Odds: 66-1


34 U-2P62SR5 RISK ACCESSOR 11-10-06
Noel Fehily Jonjo O'Neill
Only got as far as the second fence in the race last year. Tendency for mistakes makes him a risky proposition.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 66-1


35 P4/14-F1 DIRECT ACCESS 11-10-0636 235P-255 COLNEL RAYBURN10-10-06
John Cullen Paul Nolan IRE
Well fancied for the big race last year and was prominent for much of the race until pulled up after some jumping blunders.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 40-1


37 11P2/-60F5 IRIS ROYAL 10-10-06
Marcus Foley Nicky Henderson
Yet to prove he stays three miles, let alone the four-and-a-half mile trip here.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 50-1


38 21411F ROSS COMM 10-10-05
Dominic Elsworth Sue Smith
Grey horse ran well before falling six from home last time out in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury in November. Respected trainer is the wife of former top showjumper Harvey Smith.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 25-1


39 1P5//0PP- SHOTGUN WILLY 12-10-05
Richard Guest
Last seen when pulled up in the Midlands National more than a year ago. Trainer rode Red Marauder to victory in the rain-sodden 2001 National.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 100-1
40 P0-0P360 JUST IN DEBT 10-10-04
Alan Dempsey Martin Todhunter
Relishes the course - twice placed in the Becher Chase. Appeared to run out of steam, though, when tiring into ninth in last year's National.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 50-1

[Beanie]

Let's see then - taking eliminated horses off my list, the Frenchies, and taking out the top 2 since its no fun betting on favourites:

Jack High 16/1
Garvivonnian 20/1
Nil Desperandum 33/1
Baron Windrush 40/1
Just In Debt 50/1
Shotgun Willy 66/1
Rince Ri 125/1

They'll do for me

[crowie]

Originally Posted by collette38dd

As for the French failures: foreign horses get stitched up at the weights, according to my memory and the weight band that Seen has reviewed will be lower imo because all the field are in the handicap proper this year.

as for the winner ???? but placing in a previous National doesn't hurt..

my tip - play for fun in this spectacle obstacle race, i haven't a clue myself of course i stick to low class 2m hurdlers so i'll be glad when this weekend is over.

Collette, they are not actually foreign horses, they are just French bred but run in the UK all the time. Clan Royal for example has been with JJON for a decent few years now. They are all racing of their proper handicap mark as they all have done a fair few races in the UK/Ireland.

[jbgb007uk]

Isn't it said that the French bred horses struggle with the fences and hurdles at both Cheltenham and Aintree? I was led to believe that they jump through to much on the continent and thus have to use more energy when converting to the British Jumps and Hurdles. Is this right or am I mistaken?

[Beanie]

A few 'experts' tips:

Clare Balding BBC TV presenter
1 Innox 2 Hedgehunter 3 Amberleigh House 4 Numbersixvalverde
Innox is well handicapped and in form after winning the Racing Post Chase. Tony McCoy must be worried that he picked Clan Royal ahead of this horse as he is very strong.


Ian Bartlett Commentator
1 Clan Royal 2 Sir Oj 3 Garvivonnian 4 Amberleigh House
He has a good Aintree record and has been trained specifically for the race, if anything it all looks too good for Clan Royal, but with luck on his side he will be the one to beat.

Honest Frank BBC Sport website
1 Numbersixvalverde 2 Jack High 3 Clan Royal 4 Joes Edge
Hedgehunter and Clan Royal are hugely respected, but don't be surprised if Niall 'Slippers' Madden boots home the Irish National winner Numbersixvalverde.

Luke Harvey BBC Five Live reporter
1 Innox 2 Hedgehunter 3 Royal Auclair 4 Clan Royal
I can see Clan Royal cantering three out, but not staying the trip. Innox put in a great performance to beat L'Ami last time and looks as though he'll be suited by extremes of distance.

Mark Howard Author, One Jump Ahead
1 Joes Edge 2 Innox 3 Hedgehunter 4 Jack High
A horse who comes good at this time of year, Joes Edge won the Scottish National last season and is ridden by Davy Russell who has won over the National fences.

Paul Jones Author, Aintree festival Betting Guide
1 Jack High 2 Joes Edge 3 Numbersixvalverde 4 Garvivonnian
Jack High fits all the major patterns - an experienced chaser with big-race pedigree who's guaranteed to stay and has been laid out for the race by a trainer who's won it before.



Cornelius Lysaght BBC Five Live correspondent
1 Cornish Rebel 2 Hedgehunter 3 Lord of Illusion 4 Inca Trail
He's a bit quirky, but quirky characters often do well - Cornish Rebel nearly won a Scottish Grand National and ran a cracker in the Gold Cup before a mistake late on.

Rishi Persad BBC pundit
1 Hedgehunter 2 Numbersixvalverde 3 Innox 4 Royal Auclair
I think Hedgehunter has improved since winning last year and has proved that he is a world-class horse away from Aintree by finishing second at the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Peter Scudamore BBC pundit and former jockey
1 Hedgehunter 2 Clan Royal 3 Numbersixvalverde
4 Garvivonnian
Hedgehunter ran the race of his life in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and is carrying great form into the National.

David Williams Ladbrokes bookmakers
1 Hedgehunter 2 Garvivonnian 3 Numbersixvalverde
4 Joes Edge
Impressive when second in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, reigning champ Hedgehunter is bang in form, and with luck in running, is the one they all have to beat.




Sunday newspapers

Alastair Down Sunday Mirror/Racing Post
1 Jack High 2 Hedgehunter 3 Ross Comm 4 Clan Royal

Chris Goulding Sunday Express
1 Hedgehunter 2 Royal Auclair 3 Garvivonnian 4 Clan Royal

Donn McClean Sunday Times
1 Hedgehunter 2 Ross Comm 3 Jack High 4 Colnel Rayburn

Sue Montgomery Independent on Sunday
1 Hedgehunter 2 Innox 3 Cornish Rebel 4 Juveigneur Pegasus News of the World
1 Jack High 2 Numbersixvalverde 3 Clan Royal 4 Hedgehunter

[collette38dd]

Ta crowie - shows how much interest i have in it

it is true that foreign fancies get topweight though?

the proportion of fatalaties at chelt and aintree show that current form undervalues the horses that are given a very hard time. too many variables for me.

[crowie]

Originally Posted by collette38dd

Ta crowie - shows how much interest i have in it

it is true that foreign fancies get topweight though?

the proportion of fatalaties at chelt and aintree show that current form undervalues the horses that are given a very hard time. too many variables for me.

I'm no expert Collette but I do remember a couple of foreign based jumpers appearing in the National a few years ago (one from NZ I think) and pretty sure they ended up with top weight. I think it was because their form couldn't be assessed against UK/Irish form and they didn't have a handicap mark therefore had to go in with the highest.

[Pie-chucker]

Anything to put me off Cornish Rebel?

Seems to sit stoically off the pace and has low-revving engine needed for this.

Weight, I suppose, is the clunker.

(am once a year punter on the nags)

[kompressaur]

i just took Ross Comm as Ross is my name and i help run a website