24-27th Jan: African Cup Of Nations - 2nd Group Games

[Cinny]

2-0 to the Ivorians at half time, too easy

[Cinny]

Ive Cameroon at 4/6 in the local while i se them at 4/9 in a lot of places online...i know they were terrible against Egypt but surely should have enough in the tank for Zambia or they risk being humiliatingly dumped out of the competition

[bakakadassa]

Egypt and Cameroon on the handicaps are VERY generous offers IMHO.

Egypt -1.5 is a bit of a low handicap. The fair handicap IMHO would be -2.25, because Egypt is effective upfront, Sudan is midiocre in ther defence, and -most of all- Egypt traditionally produces big wins over Sudan. The last couple of games were in the Germany 2006 qualifying group and Egypt won 3-0 in Khartoum and 6-1 in Cairo.

Also in the Arab games in Cairo in 2007 Egypt won by 4-1 eventhough Sudan was represented by the Olympic tem and Egypt were represented by domestic players + Hossam Ghaly

In fact I don't remember when was the last time Egypt could not win over Sudan by at least 3 goals margin.

Egypt should also have a full squad with skipper Ahmad Hassan having served his 2nd of a 2 games ban vs Cameroon, which means he will be available for Shehata as well. In fact, Shehata put it beste when he said "my problem is 11 players will start, but I have 12 others and I cannot exactlt call them reserves". With the likes of Abu Treika, Ibrahim Saeed & El Mohammadi Saleh kept on the bench vs Cameroon (though Abu Treika & Salej took parts later on) and Hassan now available, Egypt have a luxury that's rarely ever available for any national squad in a major tournament.. ROTATION.

I'm not sure -yet- whom will be the starting XI, but I know Egypt can actually change up to 6 starters without affecting the overall performance (and by "can" I mean ability not possibility, as noone actually knows how Shehata thinks until he does announce the actual starting line-up)

As Sudan's best stars (ex: Faisal Ajab) failed to deliver, the coach Mazda has decided to exclude both Ajab & Mujahed Muhammad from the game against Egypt because they were very poor and disappointing in the 1st game.

The 1st game though will feature Cameroon vs Zambia, and the bookies made a BIG mistake in offering only -0.75 on Cameroon. It could be easily -2 and I would still back Cameroon.

The Lions did NOT appear bad against Egypt. EGYPT was fabulous which made them look limited only in comparison, but it certainly does not mean they are not one of the strongest squads in Ghana.

Now with their backs to the wall they will fight like the lions they are, and Zambia simply does not have what it takes to stop them.

Zambia on the other hand were overrated after they won 3-0, but the fact is Sudan could have scored 2-3 goals easily had they just concentrated in their finishing.

Now if Sudan can create that many chances against Zambia, how many chances would you expect Cameroon to create? And poor finishing is certainly something you would not be acusing Cameroon strikers of, would you?

Suffice it to say, Egypt should easily cover the -1.5 handicap, while I would be really disappointed and surprised if cameroon doesn't win by at least 3 goals a margin.

[Napoleon Solo]

Cameroon v Zambia

I pretty much agree with what bakakadassa with regards to Cameroon and Zambia.

Cameroon were thoroughly outclassed by a rampant Egyptian side in the first half of their game. However, a stern talking to seemed to do the trick in the second half when the Cameroonians took the game to Egypt, creating plenty of chances and looking dangerous in and around the penalty area.

Zambia took care of Sudan, but it wasn't as easy as the scoreline suggest. The Sudanese had long periods of play, especially during the first half, when they controlled the game and could have scored to give an entirely different complexion to the tie.

Cameroon are a far better side than Sudan and should be able to dictate the play against the Zambians. Cameroon were possibly a little complacent against Egypt, but with them knowing they need to win this game they'll be well up for it!

I've taken two bets on this game, the Asian and european handicaps. The European handicap of -1 gives slightly better returns than the Asian of -1.5, which I was considering!

Cameroon AH(-1) v Zambia @ 2.05 (Bet365) - 2 points
Cameroon -1 v Zambia @ 2.70 (Bet365) - 2 points

[Napoleon Solo]

Egypt v Sudan

Cameroon's 5-1 thrashing of Zambia has shown how big the gap between the superpowers of Egypt and Cameroon is compared to Zambia and Sudan.

I can see naught but a rather comfortable Egyptian win in this game. Egyptian coach Hassan Shehata, not wanting to rest on his laurels, has called for an improved performance against Sudan, despite their 4-2 victory over Cameroon. Egypt's build-up has received some good news with the availability of Ahmed Hassan after suspension and forward Mohamed Aboutrika, who has recovered from flu.

Sudan were beaten comprehensively in their first game by Zambia, though they weren't totally outplayed, controlling the game for brief periods. However, they failed to score against a Zambian back line that were shown to be rather haphazard against Cameroon.

Egypt AH(-2) v Sudan @ 1.97 (Gamebookers) - 3 points
Egypt To Score 4 Or More @ 4.00 (Bet365) - 1 point
Egypt To Score 5 Or More @ 6.50 (Bet365) - 1 point

[Napoleon Solo]

Originally Posted by Napoleon Solo

Cameroon AH(-1) v Zambia @ 2.05 (Bet365) - 2 points
Cameroon -1 v Zambia @ 2.70 (Bet365) - 2 points
Egypt AH(-2) v Sudan @ 1.97 (Gamebookers) - 3 points
Egypt To Score 4 Or More @ 4.00 (Bet365) - 1 point
Egypt To Score 5 Or More @ 6.50 (Bet365) - 1 point

Well, fuck knows how any of those Egyptian bets won as they were awful tonight, though Sudan did play really well and were very well organised! Still, a profit of 6.41 points on the day means I'm happy!

[Cinny]

Nice one napoleon, had to laugh at the 3rd egypt goal was terrible!

[Cinny]

Wonder what you folks think, i reckon south africa are a bit big at 16/5 to beat tunisia tomorrow..Tunisia were very lucky to get a draw vs Senegal they had 4 shots and scored 2 goals, very lucky whereas i thought South Africa were unlucky not to have beat Angola in the last game. Good value on South Africa in my opinion.

[bakakadassa]

Probably will wait for a full preview details sometime in the afternoon (but certainly before the game kicks-off!) *LOL*

However, I can give you an advice now... make what you want about Senegal V Angola, but don't touch Tunisia vs South Africa

Tunisia will win.. not a banker but certainly a good bet. If you won't take that, then don't bet on this game at all!

[Napoleon Solo]

Not too sure on my bets yet, but just going from the first games:

Senegal outplayed Tunisia and should have had all 3 points wrapped up long before Tunisia's equaliser.

Angola were outplayed by a young South African side for large periods of the game.

Senegal are looking like a bet for me against Angola. Not sure about the Tunisia/SA match, value bet is definitely with the South Africans on first game performance, but I'm not too sure. Probably an in-running opportunity for myself, I'm not going to push a bet on the game pre-kick for the sake of it!

[traeth]

Originally Posted by Napoleon Solo

Egypt v Sudan

Cameroon's 5-1 thrashing of Zambia has shown how big the gap between the superpowers of Egypt and Cameroon is compared to Zambia and Sudan.

I can see naught but a rather comfortable Egyptian win in this game. Egyptian coach Hassan Shehata, not wanting to rest on his laurels, has called for an improved performance against Sudan, despite their 4-2 victory over Cameroon. Egypt's build-up has received some good news with the availability of Ahmed Hassan after suspension and forward Mohamed Aboutrika, who has recovered from flu.

Sudan were beaten comprehensively in their first game by Zambia, though they weren't totally outplayed, controlling the game for brief periods. However, they failed to score against a Zambian back line that were shown to be rather haphazard against Cameroon.

Egypt AH(-2) v Sudan @ 1.97 (Gamebookers) - 3 points
Egypt To Score 4 Or More @ 4.00 (Bet365) - 1 point
Egypt To Score 5 Or More @ 6.50 (Bet365) - 1 point

Thanks for this preview Nap , I followed you on the Egypt -2 , as previously posted that third goal was terrible defending , the commentating of this goal was beyond belief , I think they were on the same bet and the relief in seeing the third goal go in overwhelmed them

[bakakadassa]

Senegal - Angola

If you’ve been following this tournament closely so far you should by now have been able to make some conclusions/deductions not only depending on the tournament games, but also relating it all to history and qualifying paths of each team.

These two topped their respectve groups 6 & 7 in the qualifiers. Senegal won all 3 home games scoring 11 and conceing 1 in them, but on the road the only drew goalless to Mozambique, 1-1 min Tanzania and lost 0-1 to Bourkina Faso.

Now relate these results to the game from the 1st round vs Tunisia and you can tell Senegal is overrated an only looked good in comparison because Tunisia were slow and made way too many mistakes in the backline.

Angola also won 3 home games in the qualifiers scoring 12 ans conceding 2, while on the road the only managed to beat neighbouring unseeded Swaziland by 2-0, got a 1-1 draw in Eritrea, and lost 1-2 in Kenya.

Again once we relate this to the draw vs South Africa we can see Angola can score (scored in every game) but have a porous defence line (only 2 clean sheet were against Swaziland in both games).

In fact, Abgola’s defence in no better than Tunisia’s, thus Senegal may –once again- look good upfront, but the question is can they hold their own at the back where Angola’s most strong?

Both teams forfeited 3 pts and settled for just 1 in their respective opening games. Furthermore, Angola in particular was slow upfront and it was Flavio Amado’s worst game in months. The South Africans sspeed matched that of Angoal’s strikers individually and outplayed them in terms of teamwork.

I feel both teams would settle for yet another draw here. For Senegal they would have put the strongest opponents behind them and will be ready to get 3 points on the expense of ambitious but inexperienced Bafana Bafana.

For Angola though, it would be a good result and the live to fight another day, whereas a loss could mean they have their fate to be decided by others feet as well as their own in the final round.

But I fear that Angola cannot rely on a defensive approach either as they would be easily broken down. They need to control the midfiled to keep the Senegalese at bay.

As for the team news, Senegal welcomes back henri camara whom have trained with them and maybe given the green light to participate some time into the game, but basically are expected to field the same starting XI that they did vs Tunisia.

Angola have 2 changes from the line-up that featured against South Africa in the shape of Kalanga replacing injury hit Figueiredo (knee) and Mateus playing in the midfield instead of Mendonca.

Probable Line-ups:

Senegal: Sylva, N'Daw, Diawara, A.Faye, Beye, N'Doye, Sall, Mendy, Diouf, Kamara, Niang.

Angola: Lama, Airosa, Kali, Marques, Yamba Asha, Ze Kalanga, Mateus, Gilberto, Macanga, Flavio, Manucho.

Prediction: While theoretically it should be a Tiranga Lions win, something tells me the Palanca Negra will not go down that easily. A draw is not out of question and the best bet IMHO is a double chance on Senegal (win or draw).

Predicted score-line: 1-1/2-1

Tunisia – South Africa

This is the most Northen nation of the continent vs the most Southern. In recent years South Africa have almost totally vanished off the International scene, while Tunisia may have been present but not as the super power they were once considered to be.

In the qualifiers both teams made it through only thanks to being 2 of the best 3 runner-ups with Tunisia coming 2nd after SUDAN, and South Africa occupying 2nd place after Zambia. (How impressive is that for either?)

The results were not at all impressive either, as Tuinisia scored an overall of 13 goals in 6 games, but 7 of which were against helpless Seychelles (whom are as good as their name tells as, btw) while they drew goalless to Mauritius on the road, and barely won 1-0 at home over Sudan before they were beaten in Khartoum by 2-3.

South Africa’s goal tally only summed up to 10, and like Tunisia 7 of them were against Chad. The only other game they managed to win was in Zambia (1-0) while they drew goalless at home to Congo (not DR Congo) and 1-1 on the road before they lost at home to Zambia by 1-3

Now relate those results to the games you saw, and you could easily tell neither team is by any chance a threat to future opponents.

In fact, this group is the weakest by far compared to the other 3, yet is the most competitive as all 4 teams all closely matched. (Benin could have won this group had they been lucky enough to be drawn against this bunch).

The last time tese two went H2H Tunisia won 2-0 thanks to Dos Santos (Egypt 2006)

This group still has all strings wriggled with each of the teams having an almost equal chance of qualifying and this only means that all possibilities are open and anything can happen today.

Based on the above I would suspect Tunisia are still the better team of the two, considering they are more experienced, not to mention EXPERTS in time wasting. The thing is Tunisia’s defence is a sham, while South Africa’s offence is blind to target.

South Africa’s will certainly improve with time under Parreira as they gain experience, but it won’t be an instant impression and I can’t help but bet against them today.

Tunisia will have Mehdi Nafti available once more and there are indications that Lemerre will make some changes to his starting line-up, thus Mikari may be in contention for Bekri (Mikari’s better for their attack), and depending on how Lemerre responds to the press/fans anger over Gaidi we may also see Abdi in Gaidi’s place.

South Africa’ Parreira will stick to the same starting line-up that played against Angola as he is looking for more harmony as well as high morals.

It should be a tight Tunisian win considering their superiority upfront vs vulnerability in the back as opposed to the South Africans pace all over the field and ineffectiveness upfront.

Predicted scoreline: 2-1

[Napoleon Solo]

Going to bet in-running on this first game, fancy Senegal but I reckon Angola may try to keep it tight. Hopefully get a decent Senegal performance and some decent odds on them winning!

[Napoleon Solo]

Shocking performance from Senegal, totally outclassed by Angola. Not sure where that Angolan performance came from as they didn't look anywhere near that good against South Africa!

Tunisia v South Africa next and I really have no idea what's going to happen in this game! Sit back and watch for me!