World Youth Championships semi-finals: 28th June

[fasteddy]

Morocco vs Nigeria : home win

I consider this game to be a lot closer than the prices and marks on offer.
While watching what i thought was a very poor, very scrappy match between Nigeria and Holland, I made a mental note to oppose the eventual winners next time out : Nigeria it is then

Nigeria may have some wonderfully talented individuals , but as a team they don't appear to select the pass/shot that is for the common good...usually it is a selfish, glory seeking decision.
This may seem a bit harsh on the team as a whole, but that attitude is only apparent because at some level in the management structure it is seen as acceptable.

For me, this set of players is going to be vulnerable up against a well organised 'collective' , such as Morocco. Although Holland were similar in this respect, and lost, I don't think they played to their potential and they were drawn into a very nervy affair. Nigeria have great trickery on the ball, but it was mostly all show, and no results.

Morocco have played consistently well since their opening day 3-1 loss to Spain. In hindsight it may have been the best start for them: a wake up call early on.
Next game saw them put 5 past Honduras, then they rounded off the Group stages with a well controlled 1-0 over Chile.
It's a fantastic achievement for the squad and they will gain a huge amount of confidence, energy and momentum for this match.
A key factor is their keeper, Bourkadi. If he has a good game then it will be very hard for Nigeria to beat him.
Smacking in hopeful strikes from all angles and distances , as they did v. Holland, won't bother him much.
Punting long, high balls inot the box shouldn't reall be a major threat either: Nigeria looked pretty average with their 'heads'...in more way than one!

Discussing the relative strengths of the individuals isn't of importance to me in these games. It's all about how the TEAM responds: how they gel in the face of adversity OR on the edge of history.
I will always back against the Nigerian's to bounce back if they are under pressure.

Morocco have to get on the board first, and then they will be able to control the game more. But, even if they fall behind, I'd fancy them more to fight for the equaliser.

They met each other back in January, with 2-2 being the end result and Nigeria winning it on penalties.
It could easily go that way again.

An interesting note is that Nigeria are the worst offenders for fouls, with 109 so far. Morocco are not tha far behind with 99. However, Morocco have suffered the greatest amount of fouls with 110.
You can read into these stats that Morocco get into more dangerous areas and force the foul, in which case they should have an edge in free kicks OR you can say that Nigeria allow teams into pressuring them, plus they are less disciplined and put pressure on themselves.

Either way, I'm reading it as a 'positive' for this bet.

I'm very tempted by the odds of 4.00 on a Moroccan win, but I'll be smarter here, and take all the advantages I can get.

Morocco +1 goal @ 1.70 for 6pts (nb: this isn't asian handicap odds)

(I'm keeping the stakes a bit lower due to the unpredictability factor of how they will react to being so close to the finals)

[kompressaur]

Great write up as usual Eddy thanks

Would you take the 7/2 Honest Komp is offering Eddy?

[slick]

Yip great write up Eddy , havent had time to watch any of these championships yet but they always seemed good for an in running bet after getting an idea of what the teams were like after 10 or 15 mins especially the 1st round games.

Bit late for that i know in the semis but good luck anyhow.

[fasteddy]

Would you take the 7/2 Honest Komp is offering Eddy?

I would, but I have to go with my gut feelings on this , and I think the safer , surer bet is the +1 @ 1.70.

"Honest Komp" isn't that an oxymoron?

[kompressaur]

Nope Eddy its just a human face i put onto vbookie and its supposed to be steeped in irony. I suppose it's an oxymoron too though

I'm pretty honest in real life mind. A fine catholic upbringing put the fear of god into me.

I'll have some of your +1 too myself Eddy but i cant walk to the bookies now. too bright outside and the world seems so harsh today.

[fasteddy]

The world IS a harsh place, and that brightness is put there just to tempt us out into it's steely grasp..EVASIVE ACTION AT ALL TIMES...good man.

Ah, yes, the catholic upbringing..I too am a card carrying member of that club. Not paid my dues for about 24 years, though...but I'm sure there will always be room for one more.
"Forgive me father, for I have sinned"
"Why, of course,..the customer is always right, my son"

Argentina look a decent bet as well.
Brasil have been solid enough, but the Argies just have that look about them, have more options and players capable of turning the game if needed.

Argentina at odds around 2.80 look excellent value...also a decent bet on Overs @ 2.20 or more , is available
game starts in 10 mins...I'll be off then..let you know how it goes..

[Beanie]

I've got Argentina tb Brazil @ 2.90, and Morroco - Nigeria draw @ 3.20 both on Betfair, but only following someone else's recommendation to it just a case of fingers crossed for me.



GL for all your bets

[fasteddy]

Argentina 1-0..lovely strike running across the box...Brasil made to look very static in the opening minutes....Nice bets Beanie..good luck, mate

[Beanie]

Didn't see that goal before I posted...honest Incidentally, the preview I followed for the Argentina match mentioned Messi as the man to do the job too. Sounds like a promising little player

Great preview on the Morocco game - I might even be tempted to add a little on the Moroccans to make it a double chance bet

[fasteddy]

This is clearly a gifted bunch of Argentine players , but they are also a very physical lot as well
Foul count is roughly 20:0 to Argentina...they will surely pay the price for this approach at somepoint. Too many free kicks given away, or a penalty, or being reduced to 10 men...I'm sure it will happen if they keep this up.
Just had a goal disallowed..tough luck..great break at pace, split ther brasilians wide open.
Brilliant stuff.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Do you's know the channel on digital this game is on?

Argentina next goal in running at 5/2...Ive had a little dabble with that!

[fasteddy]

I'm watching it on Chinese Tv, so can't help on that one. I'm sure you'll catch it if you can access some Euro channels.

Brasil have been patient and started to get back into the game. They are sticking to the plan it seems, and the panicky play is now over.
They are using the whole of the pitch, moving it well from cross pitch and getting in some good balls.
Look the more disciplined, a bit more mature in that sense.

The Argentines still have the bigger bag of tricks , but I think they will need a 2 goal cushion to be sure of victory...hard to see Brasil not scoring in the 2nd half.
having said that, Argentina look dangerous everytime they cross into Brasil's half.

Going to be a good 45 , methinks.

[fasteddy]

Seems like the Brasilian coach has told them to fight fire with fire as they are steaming into every tackle.
Argentina is breaking up all the Brasil moves...no rhythm at all to the game really...Argies are showing some sublime stuff , but both sides are living dangeroulsy with this style of play.

I believe there's another goal in this game but I can't say for whom

[fasteddy]

there's the winner ( I think!)...2-1 Argentina...they recovered well from the equaliser ( set piece, 30 yds out, glancing header) and have deserved to be the winners here...fantastic skills, although the end result never reflects the effort in the build ups...

[fasteddy]

2-1 FT: this lot will win the final..no doubt about it..there's nothing that either Nigeria or morocco could present to stop them.
Far too much skill and ooze confidence all the time.
They will have some players missing from the final due to the bookings from this game, but as long as they have Messi, Oberman etc..should be no probs.