Euro 2008 Quals - 28th March

[bakakadassa]

Well, many games are "no contest" games tonight. Many are dangerous on the handicaps (Wales -3.75??)

However, a punter is likely to find alternative options for some interesting value.

One option is to get on accomulators (combo bets) but these are also dangerous because you 6-8 picks to get to a reasonable value, and if ONE should fail you you lose it all!

My preferred bets for tonight are:

1- To score anytime: many high profile scorers and most ar facing much vulnerable opposition, making this kind of bet value in many cases.

2- Exact score: While it's never wise to bet on the exact scores -in general- one could find 1 or 2 that just stand out at vry appealing odds, and while these are NOT to be considred serious bets they are fun to keep tracking while a game is in progress.

3- 1X2: As I said, most games are not even close to being value. But maybe a couple of them will be after careful consideration. Again, only small punts for the fun of it.

4- Over/Under: Well, I'm not going to place any myself, but if you feel like it you may want to get on Overs on most games. I know Serbia V Portugal is not one of these, and Ukraine vs Lithuania is also likely to go under, and so is Slovakia V Holland.
The games of Turkey V Norway & Israel V Estonia are no bets.
Other than these 5 the other 15 are likely to have 3 goals or more each.

Listed below are some of the bets I've chosen to place, some with brief analyis, and some with non at all.

Finally: Just to make it easier for ME I'm quoting ONLY bet365 odds/prices for the specified bets. Pleasebe advised to check on your favourite bookie(s) before you adopt any of the advised bets.

Good Luck

(1) To score anytime:

This is my favourite bet on tonights games. Some of these players just can't be ignored, so I guess I won't need to explain why I fancy them to score.

I'm only listing them in "singles" mode, but what I have done is go taking all doubles. (That had limitations as no two players from the same team can be taken on a double, so I ended up with 32 doubles rather than 36 for the 9 players).

If you go singles, place 1 point on each. If you go doubles, my choice was 0.25 points per bet (8 points in total)

My bets:

Rooney (England) @ 1.53
Johnson (England) @ 1.57
Defoe (England) @ 1.72
Villa (Spain) @ 1.90
Morientes (Spain) @ 2.10
Baros (Czech) @ 2.00
Doyle (Ireland) @ 2.25
Healy (Northen Ireland) @ 3.00
Bellamy (Wales) @ 1.72

P.S. Feel free to repace Healy with Berbatov (Bulgaria) if you don't feel comfortable with the thought Northern Ireland will score against Sweden.

(2) Exact Score: (1 point single bets only)

Andorra V England: 0-4
Ukraine V Lithuania: 2-0
Romania V Luxembourg: 3-0

(3) Outrights:

These are the ones that are VALUE to me: (2 points single bets only)

- Italy V Scotland: Draw @ 4.75
- Turkey V Norway: Draw @ 3.25
- Leichtenstein V Latvia: Draw @ 3.75
- Germany V Denmark: Away @ 3.75

Of course I alos got on accomulators for some strsight out wins, but these are (1) No valkue bets & (2) already tipped by almost everyone who has a keyboard and has access to a soccer forum.

Good Luck

[Betfly]

I remember the last Scotland Italy game too & it was quite tight.

Taking a wee interest 1st Goal >27mins @ eve with Betfred.

Just hope its a Scotland Goal!

[clapton]

I very much agree with you bakakadassa,

The bet of tonight is probably germany-denmark, as germany as many probably know lines up with a b-team. I know they still have good players, but they are not as good a team as the danes. Morten Olsen, the danish coach, is furious with germany for only showing up with a b-side as he thinks it's waste of time playing aginst.
Then there were rumors of denmark also not deciding to play with their best squad, but now we know morten olsen will go for winning this game even though he might try a few new players.
The odds of 4.2 on betfair is more then good value as i think this game is atleast 33-35-32 in terms of percentage.

7/10 on denmark to win @ 4.2

[bakakadassa]

"Some" Explanations:

Rooney, Johnson, Defoe: The most likely scorers for England, and playing th Andorra minnows one would expect 3-5 goals in this game, and the likely scorers are these 3 plus Lampard IMHO.

Villa & Morientes both scored for Spain vs. Denmark, both on top form and both form a very good and successful duo in the Valencia starting line up.
Again, expecting 3-4 goals scored by the Spaniards, and these two are more likely to score IMHO than -say- Torres.

Baros: Need I really explain why Baros is the most likely tos coer (even more than once) for the Czech?

Doyle: Well, the lad's been doing pretty well in EPL, and with a chance to come in for Keane he's likely to be motivated to make the most of it.

Healy: He score a hat-trick against Spain, and then followed that with another hat-trick in Leichtenstein, so why not score against teh Swedes? Certainly not expecting another hat-trick, but a mere one would be enough for the bet to win.

Bellamy: If Wlaes are to cover the high handicap he simply has to get on the score sheet. Otherwise, Wlaes are simply NOT going to cover that handicap by any means!

Arguments for the draw on Turky-Norway are available from other members on thsi site, so let me explain why Italy-Scotland & Leichtenstein-Latvia should have decnt chances of a draw.

Italy are not the most in form team of th continent at the moment. They simply cannot find the net easily, and their recent diplays and rsults simply show that fact, and while Scotland have not been convincing either (especially against Georgia) they still got the required result.

It's like the Milna Vs Celtic game to me. While Milan kept on hitting the bar, and throwing away easy chances to score, the game end in a 0-0 draw, only this one won't have extra-time.

Leichtenstein are not to be backed outright at any given day, granted, but neither are Latvia! Boith teams are REALLY not to be compared by even the "moderate" teams such as Hungary, Slovenia or Austria. However, Leichtenstein have been "trying" to improve, and their run of successive losses jaust will have to end at some oint.. one day. This is simply one of those day that it "may" end, as it certainly cannot end when they play Sweden. Denmark, Spain or N. Ireland!

The exact scores I won't try to argue.. they're just "cheap shots" at "reasonable prices"

[Ori]

Finnland, rip till the next qualifications. 1:0 Azers

[bakakadassa]

Oh, my.. and Bulgaria failed to score a single goal (inspite og the lovely dame above!) *LOL*

I just KNEW there will be some unexpected results messing up any combos you might have in mind!

Who's next??

[kompressaur]

Unlucky bakakadassa. I'll just read up and see whats on offer. Hello and welcome to TDP clapton/. I'm a bit poor tonight so i can't get involved in long shots. Thats big coming from a man who's about to back Italy 1 nil, 2 nil and maybe even 3 nil


Most goals in the 2nd half is evens too Betfly. I don't know if that is better or worse for you. 2-3 goals is 10/11 which I'm looking at but seeing as i fancy 1-0 too its not really the bet for me.

Just reading your post #31 bakakadassa. great post mate. I love reading folks big posts. Good luck on the rest of your games bakakadasa

Some more strong arguments to confirm my tip for Bulgaria today:

Bloody hell Engineer your new wife will kill you if she sees you looking at mucky pictures. If she asks just say it was me that posted them in your post i don't mind taking the rap for any man. Folks are always appearing at my house in the morning after they've had a night with a woman and asking me to say that they were at my house. I will always help them as I'm a natural born misogynist.

Considering a substantial bet on Slovakia on the double chance against Ireland. Ireland's recent performances, with the exception of the draw against the Czech at home, have been awful to say the least. Slovakia are technically a better side and with a win have the chance to go 2nd in the group (depending on the Czech-Cyprus result earlier in the day).
Robbie Keane is suspended .... god knows who Stan will play.
Will wait for final team news before diving in.

Bah i was looking at a home win there Wexford. you've put me off enough to have no bet. charly the odds on the unders in the serbia game has put me off that too.

Lucky for England it's being played at a neutral venue eh?

[kompressaur]

Italy 1-0 @ 7.00 1pt
Italy 2-0 @ 6.00 2pts
Iatly 3-0 @ 15/2 1pt

I would happily give them all up for a point for Scotland. Don't you dare score and then get beat Scotland

[kompressaur]

Well that went as planned How we all do? im still in arcade mode

[kompressaur]

Fuller Highlights to come later....

Hungary v Moldova

Serbia v Portugal

Czech v Cyprus

Italy v Scotland Goals

N Ireland v Sweden

(2nd half highlights to follow)

Slovenia v Holland goal

Andorra v England

Ps if you thought my 'laughing stock of Europe' taunt was out of order then may i remind you all that i stayed in England from the age of 10 till about 24 and then on and off since and i get taunted myself in Scotland due to me shouting on England in major competitions. It was a joke. A bit like England under Mclaren maybe. I can't believe you all wanted him as your manager. was it the people, the press or the fa that wanted him?

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Last edited by kompressaur : 28-03-2007 at 22:11.