Americas WCQ - Thur 13th (Early)

[Kombinator]

Originally Posted by Kiko

...Argh - decisions decisions. Maybe a no bet after all....

Aha... this seems better! No bet - no risk!

I don't know if you are a "loose"(many bets) bettor or "tight"(very few but strong bets) bettor but I would recommend you to try at least my Brazilian pick(posted in the other page) on Paysandu for this midweek...
This is what I do: Normally, I play my picks the way I post them(same stake) and also play the picks of some trusted friends like Beanie and Gooner but often half of their stake. So if Beanie says take Livi (I am kidding mate!) at 9/10 then I go for 4.5/10 and so on...
You can try that - see how it works for you. So if I bet 7/10 on Paysandu @2.1 then 3.5/10 will be fine for you as a person who does not care about

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

I use to be rather loose with my betting but i am becoming a lot more patient with looking for bets and it is working very well for me now.

I will have a look at the Brazilian pick as some live games getshown over here of it so i have some small interest in it.

[Kombinator]

Okay, here is another decent pick:

USA(-1.5) - Panama 1 @1.82(Pinnacle) for 6/10

USA has some proud players with a good and experienced coach that don't like such a beating like 3:0 which happen 2 days ago... I see them as revenge seekers this time against poor and playing for nothing Panama. Sure, some US players were rested and some new players simply did expect such a boiling atmosphere in Costa Rica but now it's a whole new game. The American pride must be saved... and even those who know about soccer didn't understand that humiliating 3:0. "How come it did not matter?" - they asked - "We are 2nd and Mexico is 1st so it should have mattered!" So I expect a fully playing US side playing their last game at home before the WC trying to get the fireworks going on...
Panama is poor with no motivation whatsoever and they have already proved that don't know how to play against US.

Good luck if you follow!

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

I was very surprised with that scoreline in Costa Rica.

USA although they were resting some players, still had a decent squad. The new players that were called up were mainly from San Jose who have had such a fantastic season in MLS and i expected them to put up a good showing.

I was surprised with Ching's inclusion as i don't rate him as International standard, good MLS pedigree but thats about that although i was surprised with Twellmen who was meant to have had a poor game and look out of his depth. He has been banging the goals in for NE and has 15 i think it is to his name and he is one i thought would fit in well to the side.

For the game against Panama at Foxboro Stadium on Wednesday evening, Arena has decided to experiment even further. He has sent home all but two European-based players (Tim Howard and Jonathan Spector).

Five of the squad members named for the Panama affair have not yet earned a cap for the US. Midfielder Brian Carroll of MLS outfit DC United, Ricardo Clark of San Jose Earthquakes, New England Revolution’s Daniel Hernandez, former US youth standout Justin Mapp and goalkeeper Matt Reis will be hoping to get their first precious minutes of national team action.

Their midfield will be pretty solid with Carrol and Clark sitting in there so i would be happy with that.

All in all i would quite fancy them with your bet. The new players coming in should settle in to the side very well and they have the quality to get a few past this poor side.

[Kombinator]

Yeah, well... I like the look of that US team. New players must try and catch Arena's eye... I watched the game in Costa Rica(did you Kiko?) and saw those crazy fans being really the 12 player. It would have been hard even for Argentina! So, USA did not play bad at all... had a lot of the possession... but was cought on those fast counter attacks... and then did not know how to react. They did try - Twellman missed a lot! And Damarkus Beasley was kicked every time he got the ball... but overall not a presentation for 3:0. Something around 2:0 or even 2:1 would have been more logical...
Anyway, Panama is bringing some "funny" players so it should work for the US team this time..

[Rashin]

Hmmm, talking about betting, I think I am between a loose and tight bettor. I will only make a bet when I have good information. So I may make many bets on a day or even one only depending on the games. I wont and never make a bet looking at stats, it wont last long. And most importantly as I bet totally on Asian Handicap, I will never ever back a team that have odds below 1.85. Even if it is a hot pick, but at 1.70+, no thanks. As for staking, I never follow anyone's staking, they can say 8/10 but I'll prob bet 3/10, or they'll say 4/10 and I bet 6/10. All comes down to confidence I guess.

Anyway the most important thing for me is information, if I see a punter makes a bet looking at stats only(BA is flooded with these guys, even the **cough tip- cough -sters**), I'll most probably go againts them, I'm so evil

[Kombinator]

Interesting thoughts and info, Rashin!

As you can see I am not a punter that will throw stats and more stats at you... till you forget what the main subject was I also hate to throw many names of players people don't know or don't care to know... for example I'll mention that Wanchope won't play for Costa Rica next game or Augustin Delgado for Ecuador on their next game(both from my picks) cause I expect those to be well known but the rest... simply no need. I'll tell you that Coritiba will have some important missings on their next game against Paysandu but won't go into detail and name them... that does no mean that my info is bad, right? Not of course... so I give and I would like to be given as much as I need to take a decision for myself...
I see you have your evil tactic - mine is to go against a good tipster's picks(lay them) who is coming from nice series of wins or simply start follow him/her once he/she gets deep into a losing streak... If he/she has a proven record that I know of than I simply wait for the tide to change...

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

I see what your saying and i agree with it.

Like you say you could list off every player missing in the Brazilian pick of yours but none of us would have a clue and it would mean nothing to us.

I have an MLS thread up, have a look and let me know what you think of the match

[slick]

Good stuff Kombinator and some interesting posts, welcome to DP.

[raven]

none of us would have a clue and it would mean nothing to us.

Speak for yourself, Kiko.

I can understand why people are going with the 3 'haveta' win teams but they're all classic no-bets imo. The one nobody has mentioned and that's the best of the lot imo is Peru v Bolivia (1) 1.75 interwetten.

I wouldn't bother with any other book for this one, if you don't have an interwetten account, as they're bp by far. (av. 156 / bf.165)

[Kombinator]

Originally Posted by raven

...I can understand why people are going with the 3 'haveta' win teams but they're all classic no-bets imo....

Why "classic no-bets "?

Originally Posted by raven

The one nobody has mentioned and that's the best of the lot imo is Peru v Bolivia (1) 1.75 interwetten.

...and why "the best of the lot"?

Sorry to ask so many questions... but I am curious to know...

[Beanie]

Thought you said you didn't have much time these days Kombinator, and here I find you posting like its going out of fashion!



Na, good to see you here mate!

[Kombinator]

Nice to hear from you, Beanie! I am in between jobs right now so will have some time(few days) before my new job starts. But even then it feels like I'll have more time than usual(I hope)... that's what I get for marring a rich girl
Plus the Spanish "closed-friends" forum that I normally hang out on is down these days so I am waiting for them transfer to that new php(or whatever it's called) format...

[christianu]

I dont know what your going on about most of the time Kombinator but I like you

[rene]

The Argentina odd are very very high!... Why? The Gauchos are the best south american Team at the moment.Uruguay is good at home,but versus the gauchos.. a victory?