Like you state - it is most likely just hope we are holding out for. I dont find any good games to bet on, hence why i went for a big big long shot. Fingers crossed. It would be fantastic if we could do it!
Yet another crucial game for the Scots, who have given themselves renewed hopes for gaining second place in the group with the recent 2-0 home win over Moldova.
Lets start by stating one thing I believe is crucial to this game: The prospect of an away game to Belarus offers Scotland the far more comfortable situation of being underdogs. When installed as favourites, as they were against Moldova, and charged with breaking down a stubborn, defensively minded team, Scotland usually struggle(results against the Faroe Islands in recent years are good evidence of this.)
Belarus on the other hand will be keen to win in order to draw them level in the group with Norway and Slovenia in 2nd, allowing Scotland the opportunity to be the more defensively minded side on Wednesday night.
Regarding this defensive aspect, Scotland are a useful side, conceding just 4 goals in 5 games, less than Italy, Slovenia, Belarus and Moldova in the Group 5, and 1 more than Norway. David Weir at the centre of defence has come on leaps and bounds with Everton this season, while Pressley, Webster and Gordon of Hearts are all looking a lot more comfortable on the international stage. Walter Smith and a couple of players have stated this week their determination to win, however I believe secretely that a point will still be viewed as a good result, and so the defence could well be key for this game.
That is the good news, while the team news is a much different story. There were a handful of injuries for Saturday, and McCann, McNamara and Hartley(suspension) have added their names to the absentee list since then. Further doubts remain over others who are expected to play anyway, with Walter Smith down to a bare 18 players(starting 11 plus 7 subs) and so there is little point pretending that the squad is anywhere near its peak.
My guess of the side would be:
...............Gordon
Alexander...Weir...Pressley...Caldwell
.............Dailly...............
.....Fletcher.....Ferguson....McFadden
........K Miller....McCulloch.....
McFadden and McCulloch could be switched about there, but after strong performances after coming on as subs I'd expect Dailly and McFadden to be given the nod. Caldwell looks likely to fill the hole left by McNamara at left back, and while I'd prefer to see either Lee Miller or Riordan, Smith could well keep faith with Kenny Miller up front. There's also a chance Webster might be included if Smith adopts an ultra defensive approach.
Again, I'm not particularly clued up on Belarus, but perhaps their greatest danger Maxim Romaschenko is missing through injury. Belkevich and Hleb however offer a huge creative danger, and man marking could well be the way to go tomorrow night. Belarus were sluggish against Slovenia at the weekend, and 1-1 represents a poor result given that 2nd place is there for the taking in this group.
So a few concluding thoughts...
Its not worth pretending that Scotland are a great footballing side, nor that they are as good as Belarus, nor that they are anywhere near favourites for 2nd place. They do however, have renewed hope after Saturday, a very good defensive record(often masked by a poor return up front) and atleast on the face of it an impressively positive attitude for the game.
As abject as Satuday was, this game represents a fixture well designed to draw out Scotland's battling qualities, and the question could then be how well Belarus respond to a tight, scrappy physical affair, cos we'll love it!
They say every selection has its price, and while Belarus are worthy favourites, Scotland's price has drifted far too far on Betfair. £1,500 has been traded at a whopping 4.80, so if you can get matched there I think thats good value. The Bookmakers have far more sensible prices. Goes without saying that that would be a small stakes punt.
To clarify: Value at 2.25 was available earlier in the week on Belarus, but with that having been gobbled up I think the Scotland price has been pushed out too far by some over eager layers.
Other Betting...
Under 2.5 looks the pick tomorrow night. See the mentions of the Scotland defence, as well as Belarus missing their main goalscoring threat, and 1.65 and upwards is value for me.
Lovely post Beanie thanks mate. I'm sitting out the Scotland game my heart is saying Scotland and i even want to back them as i think they always suprise but the win will be good enough for me so i'll not be putting anything on it. Gonna get into the fixtures tonight
ps i like the pic. Im getting quite excited as WE CAN do it. I missed the game on Sat due to DP commitments but i read Parahandy an Crowies reviews of the game and ws glad i never saw it. then i got the paper on Monday and they made out we were worldbeaters. All the players got 6+ in ratings and they made out we were great
ps i like the pic. Im getting quite excited as WE CAN do it. I missed the game on Sat due to DP commitments but i read Parahandy an Crowies reviews of the game and ws glad i never saw it. then i got the paper on Monday and they made out we were worldbeaters. All the players got 6+ in ratings and they made out we were great
Isn't that always the way Komp? As long as we're losing the manager will be mentioned in the same breath as Sadaam Hussein, Jimmy Hill and Maggie Thatcher, whereas the tabloids will get all misty eyed after squeezing out a 2-0 against East European minnows. Mindless optimism is one of the things I love about this country, and as a Scotland fan, being realistic would get quite depressing...
Dont think we will see such a positive attacking team Beanie - its Sccotland here, not Brazil. According to papers McFadden will start on the bench again, gutted really as he seems to save his best performances for country rather than club. Hope the papers are wrong though.
Just read your analysis Beanie, another cracking write up .
I still think there's more value on X2 with this one rather than the straight home win. However, I'm not ruling out the fact that my heart may be ruling my head here . Crowies original post covers things very well and I'd normally have snaffled up the 2.25 on offer at the time. The only downside to Belarus is form, they didn't play well at the weekend. That's a factor I just can't get out of my head.
I probably like Beanie's choice of under 2.5 goals the most, but I've never been a big fan of those bets.
I'm staying out of this one, too many if's and but's in my head. Good luck with whatever you choose.
bolivia are abysmal away from home - w0 d0 l7 gf5 ga20 - they're out of the running now and may even have their minds on the political probs; blockades of cities, protests, etc.
para @ home:4 2 0 10-4. After losing to Brazil the coach has indicated in the Sa press that he's going for an all out attack formation.
take it and thank me tomorrow.
chile v venezuela - a difficult one to call but i'm taking 4.10 on the draw @ bf purely on price.
argentina v brazil (1) 2.37 b365 or O2.5 2.14 bf.
arg 1st place 28pts. home: w5 d2 l0 gf14 ga6
brazil 2nd w/ 27. away: w2 d4 l1 gf10 ga7
Argentina : Abbondanzieri Robert; Javier Zanetti, Ayala Robert, Fabricio Coloccini, Gabriel Heinze; Luis González, Javier Mascherano, Juan Pablo Sorín; Juan Roman Riquelme; Javier Saviola and Hernán Crespo. *
Brazil : Dida; Cafú, Juan, Roque Junior, Robert Carlos; Emerson, Ze Robert; Ronaldinho, Kaka '; Robinho and Adriano. **
*
**Parreira has confirmed the Brazil team as above.
The last time Brazil won in Buenos Aires was a 1-0 back in 1995; last time there was a 2-1 Argentina win.
I don't like Brazil to win but I can't lay @ >3.00 either. Argentina @ 2.37 b365? O2.5 goals @ 2.14 bf looks ok as well.
some random quote crap from terra:
Quote:
One is two about the best exponents of the present time, with several of the soccer players better quoted of the planet and in addition, with long and rich histories that endorse to the two t-shirts.
The points in dispute are important, as much because the winner will have assured his classification for the World-wide one the next year, but the reality indicates that both they will arrive without no difficulty at Germany 2006, reason why the meaning of this classic South American is very over any mathematical consideration.
The party, within the framework of the fifteenth date of the Eliminatory Souths American woman, estimates all the condimentos, by quality of players and traditional rivalry between the equipment.
Argentina, that leads the table of positions with 28 points, comes from a very poor production in Quito , where it in front of fell Ecuador without extenuating by 2 to 0, but will present/display a substantially different formation.
Brazil, that is second with 27, turned Sunday the past, in I carry Glad, a gracious performance before Paraguay, to which it made goals 4-1, without being strange to the Ronaldo absentee, and this time will leave to the turf with an alignment very seemed.
The Argentineans are thirsty of revancha by the two falls undergone in 2004 in front of the Brazilians, that the party round Eliminatory of the America Glass won by 3-1 of the first end and, by penitentiaries.
Carlos Alberto Parreira , the Brazilian trainer, already confirmed his equipment with a single variant in relation to which the party with Paraguay began: the entrance of Juan like first central zaguero instead of Lucio, who was expelled in that encounter and must fulfill a date of suspension.
However, Jose Pekerman did not present who will be their choosing, although the doubts are few and are raised between Javier Zanetti or Cristian González (according to one or another one plays will be several the positional changes) and between Javier Saviola and Thin Caesar to accompany to Hernán Crespo in the attack.
In his eagerness to release to his players of the pressure that supposes a party of these characteristics, the selector of Brazil said that, by the situation of both in the table of positions, a "friendly one of luxury " can be considered .
But for Pekerman all encounter of the albicelestes against its maximum continental rivals "always is decisive" , thus affirmed that it is "fundamental" that its equipment obtains a positive result.
According to Parreira, Brazil it will play offensive as habitually it does, because the opposite "would be a suicide", although Riquelme has put it in doubt , when saying that it is probable that it defends more than what attacks.
The Argentine technician affirmed that if Brazil is a step above than any equipment, as he creates, "in front of Argentina must demonstrate it".
Quote:
"there are not in the world two equipment with so many individual values as those that are going away to see in the field Wednesday. It will be a game very opened, very pretty ", maintained Parreira.
While, his Argentine colleague Jose Pekerman considered that the encounter will be "decisive" because "the consequences of a victory will allow that the moral and the confidence in the equipment rise", Parreira preferred to clear dramatic quality to him.
Nice information on the South American games raven . I've not made my final selections yet but I'll add some more information on the Paraguay match.
Paraguay v Bolivia
Odds for the straight win are low with SportingBet offering 1.36 on Paraguay (-0.5). A larger handicap of -1.5 is available with Pinnacle @ 1.79 which I'd be willing to take with medium stakes.
Bolivia were beaten 3-1 away from home by 10 man Chile at the weekend. The result looks even worse when you consider Chile had striker Gonzalez sent off in the 38th minute. Bolivia have not taken a full strength squad to Paraguay for this match. Another consideration is the turmoil Bolivia finds itself in domestically. There have been huge riots and the president has stated that civil war could break out if elections aren't held immediately.
Paraguay are pretty much full strength for this match. Raven's stats cover their good performances at home, Paraguay should get a comfortable win.
Well Scotland finished 0-0 but its a point gained IMO.
Once again, wasn't a pretty game. Just a note for anyone, we are not Brazil, expect a few more like this in the near future. If your easily offended by ugly football, don't watch us
It was good to see a Scotland side with commitment, workrate and most importantly IMO, tactically sound. Bar the sub who came on, on the right hand side, we looked pretty comfortable against them and restricted them to shooting from distance.
As I said in a Sunday post, lost to alternative TDP now, the amount of times that teams get beat 3, 4 and 5 is decreasing. International football is becoming increasingly a low scoring game and in many cases, its who the luck goes for on the day. On another night Millers chance may have flew in the bottom corner and we would be looking at a win. The thing we are still lacking is a goalscorer though, could do with someone finding one before the Italy game comes round. A squad without 11 call offs would also have gave us more of a chance.
Overall, another little bit of pride, confidence and self belief back for the Scottish team. And fans. After two years of terrible mis-management and being tactically abysmal its a heading in the right direction.
Those of you who have not paid close attention to the Scottish team of late will probably fail to realise how much ugly performances like that and Saturdays actually means to us. However anyone who still gets flashbacks to Holland, Wales, Austria, Hungary and numerous other countries using us as their bitch thanks to a feckwit of a manager will fully understand.
Here's to next season, more of the same away in Austria, a roaring Hampden for the visit of Italy and hopefully still something to play for when we go to Norway. Small steps but forward steps
Well, I'm a mug for not covering the draw. I really thought we'd nick it though and 4/1 was too good for me. I can't wait for the season to start as I genuinely believe we have the best there is for UK footy posting here.
Looks like Walter Smith has all but given up on qualifying with the way the team was set out tonight. Solid at the back but no emphasis on going for broke in the second half, despite 3 points being a must. This was very evident looking at the time Gordon took to get the ball back into play at goal kicks. I thought we might have had more of a go.
Ok the damage was done in the opening matches under Berti and getting some respectability back will do at this stage. Being organised in defence is a priority if we are ever to qualify again for the WC or Euro Championship. That's 3 matches with the only goals conceded being the two free kicks scored by Pirlo in Italy.
The next match is at home to the Italians and they are probably the worst possible opponents given the current state of affairs re our inability to score goals. They will be happy to sit back and if it's 0-0 that will do them. We never looked like opening up Moldova so what chance have we got against a team whose forte is defending? Not a lot. Maybe we should talk to Liverpool
Our problems are in attack and the time must surely be fast approaching where youth will have to be given a chance. Kenny Miller will never be good enough at this level and neither will Stevie Thomson who is fast becoming another "judge" sitting on the bench for club and country. McFadden can play a bit but it's at snail's pace. Seeing him in action is like watching the top weight in the Grand National on heavy ground after 4 miles plus. No acceleration.
As I mentioned earlier, tonight it looked very much as though Walter Smith is looking beyond this tournament. That's understandable and if it is indeed the case then it's time to blood new strikers. Riordan is the most obvious and if it means dropping Miller to give him a run in the remaining matches, I'm all for that.
I can't believe for one minute that Walter would have been looking beyond this tournament when all we had to do was win to be right back in it. No way. That just seems insane. In fact, it IS insane. I just think he's pretty crap tactically (if anoyone can track down my old posts at PL you'll see I said this when he was first linked with the job).
Miller cannot play a lone roll up front as he has the worst ball control in world football. I posted all this hours before the game but deleted it as it seemed out of place (I was rambling about tactics etc).
Belarus were exactly as most people would imagine them to be when you mention their name - complete bollocks. Basically, a shit football team who we should have been able to to put away easily. Walter Smith, imo, has to take resposibility for dropping 2 points here. Just like many managers before him, he's a fucking genius at grabbing draws and it just isn't good enough. I'm not overly optimistic either. We're better than this.
WC Qualifying - Midweek
Some great points...
Isn't that always the way Komp? As long as we're losing the manager will be mentioned in the same breath as Sadaam Hussein, Jimmy Hill and Maggie Thatcher, whereas the tabloids will get all misty eyed after squeezing out a 2-0 against East European minnows. Mindless optimism is one of the things I love about this country, and as a Scotland fan, being realistic would get quite depressing....GIF "Thumb(1)")
. Crowies original post covers things very well and I'd normally have snaffled up the 2.25 on offer at the time. The only downside to Belarus is form, they didn't play well at the weekend. That's a factor I just can't get out of my head.
