WC Qualifying - Midweek

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Old 06-06-2005, 07:49
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WC Qualifying - Midweek



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I made a big post in the alternative TDP yesterday (maybe Was saw it ) about how we (Scotland) are just happy with a win at the moment. No one is going to argue that we have a load of talented players at the moment, we don't and we will take any results we can get.

The performance on Saturday wasn't great but its not easy, especially when you don't have the talent, to break down teams who just sit in. The team is also still suffering a hangover from the Vogts era in that they are lacking in confidence as a unit at the moment. Results are what count, performances I will pass on at present. In all honesty we were never going to lose on Saturday but we made a hard job of breaking down a limited side. Still the same limited side held Norway to a draw in Moldova and only lost 1-0 to Italy. Our result should be put in context against these results.

In international football, bar a few odd teams, your not getting 3, 4 and 5 goal thumpings any more. Therefore by and large your results are determined by what goes for you and what goes against you along with the quality of your players. Believe it or not, Scotland were actually 2 free kicks and 1 penalty away from being unbeaten in this group We were 2 free kicks and 1 bit of mis-control away from a possible win in the San Siro. Yes, all ifs and buts, but its how the breaks fall for you or against you on a day that determines the result a lot of the time. We got one on Saturday with their keeper dropping the ball into his own net, Italy got one with their opener v Scotland in the award of a very dubious free kick.

However I will say it now, I would think it will be a right result for Scotland if we come away from Belarus unbeaten. To me that would be another step along the road of improvement. It won't be easy but a point for me would me a massive bonus.

Belarus are not a bad side. In fact I would rate them at least on a par with Norway and Slovenia. They have already been to Oslo and came away with a draw, they ran Italy to a 4-3 loss in Italy. They thumped the same Moldova side we sneaked past, 4-0.

They have a decent squad, some with a lot of caps and experience. Their players play mainly in Russia and Ukraine but also in Germany and Italy.

Contrast that with the current Scotland squad which draws on a handful of players from the Championship.

The other factor to consider from a Scottish point of view is this. Smith named a 27 man squad for these 2 fixtures. He is now down to 18 players and also has doubts over McCann and McCulloch. Considering we don't have great strength in depth then losing this number of players will obviously hamper us from putting out a decent first 11.

I am having a small punt on Belarus on Wednesday. In truth its one of these bets where I am not going to be overly concerned if it goes down as Scotland will have taken at least a point in that case. However I do fully expect it to be landed as a combination of us not being that good, our injuries and the fact Belarus are pretty decent makes it a worthwhile price for me.

5pts on Belarus at 2.25 with Ladbrokes.

Last edited by kompressaur : 06-06-2005 at 17:32.
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Old 06-06-2005, 16:26
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Re: WC Qualifying - Midweek

I think you're spot on with that analysis, Crowie, but, I'm very wary of backing against Scotland here, even though there's very little evidence to suggest it'll be anything other than a home win. Scotland absolutely cannot afford to lose and I feel the players may well be capable of digging in and turning this match into a real battle and may even manage to steal a flukey goal somehow (). A backs to the wall gritty, defensive display from Scotland wouldn't surprise me but I think, on paper, it's right to go for the home win.

If anyone knows where I can get video footage of Belarus's goals or some match reports of their games in English, that would let me decide for sure as I can't remember the last time I saw them play. I'll go have a dig around.
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Old 06-06-2005, 18:13
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Re: WC Qualifying - Midweek

Mickey,

I would be delighted if we did produce the sort of effort you mention above, would do me and as I said, this is one bet I wouldn't mind seeing lose. However purely from a betting point of view, and seeing our performances close up I feel Belarus should be a shade of odds on therefore happy to take Laddies 2.25.

The FIFA World Cup site is kack for anything other than results or group standings.

However try this, its from uefa.com

Belarus info on UEFA.com

You can click on each fixture to get match reports etc.
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Old 06-06-2005, 18:26
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Re: WC Qualifying - Midweek

Thanks, Crowie. I got sidetracked by Costa Rica v Guatemala. I see Costa Rica beat them 5-0 here in Oct last year and I also see Guatemala have only scored in one match from 4 - ok, they put 5 past Trinidad & Tobabgo but.... I'm gonna think about this one.
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Old 06-06-2005, 18:29
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Re: WC Qualifying - Midweek

Fuck didn't scotland put about 5 past trinidad ? Kinda says something !
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Old 06-06-2005, 18:39
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Re: WC Qualifying - Midweek



Scotland only managed 4 v T&T. And they got one themselves I think.
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Old 06-06-2005, 18:50
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Re: WC Qualifying - Midweek

Aye, Costa Rica could be worth thinking about. Here's some bits n bobs - I'm away to digest it all:

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/team?id=214&cc=5739
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Old 06-06-2005, 19:49
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Re: WC Qualifying - Midweek

Looking at the European matches I can honestly not get inspired by any of them at all..A lot of short priced matches (even for me!) I have doubts at the moment whether I'll get involved in any..

However The only possibility I may consider is a small stake lay of Iceland vs Malta..Kiko mentioned it on the other thread about Malta's price. Both teams have a mere 1 point in the group - yet Iceland are 1.18 to lay with Betfair...!! Home advantage aside, surely backing a team yet to win a group match at massive odds on and with apparent injuries is financial suicide!!!

One to consider before Wednesday.... :think
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Old 07-06-2005, 01:05
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Re: WC Qualifying - Midweek

I like your analysis as usual Crowie, and initially I was thinking medium stakes on Belarus myself.

However, I've had another look at the prices and found you can create your own double chance (X2) on betfair for 1.94. I've not reached a final decision but it has given me pause for thought.

There's no escaping the fact that Scotland were terrible on Saturday. However Belarus weren't so clever in their own game either, they drew 1-1 at home to Slovenia. From reports I've read they could easily have lost the match as well.

I can see myself skipping this game, but if I get any hint of less than perfect team news for Belarus I'll be sorely tempted with X2.
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Old 07-06-2005, 07:32
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Re: WC Qualifying - Midweek

According to the Daily Record, David Weir was the only Scotland player who didn't require medical attention after Saturdays game. Everyone else had some sort of bump or bruise or strain. Headlining it with "We only have one fit player" many not be entirely correct, I personally don't know how common it is for a large % of the team to have bumps and bruises of this sort after a game.

Daily Record story
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Old 07-06-2005, 11:08
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Re: WC Qualifying - Midweek

Here's something I just nicked to get the Scots fans in the thread in the mood:

Coming Down The Road

Other Things
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Old 07-06-2005, 11:22
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Re: WC Qualifying - Midweek



I have the Sex and Drugs and Sausage Rolls CD in the house. They played the "We'll Be Coming" track in the pub we were in on Saturday.
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Old 07-06-2005, 12:43
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Re: WC Qualifying - Midweek

Just noticed Scotland are @ 4.4 (Betfair). Bah! Now I'm tempted to do summat silly....... I really think we may win this one....... I mean, it's a massive, massive game and Walter Smith will surely have them fired up. From what little info I could gather from Belarus's match reports, they seem to be giving up a lot of possession lately and that's set my mind at rest a little. I reckon we are well capable of keeping them out at the back. Maybe a brave set-piece header will see us through.. I prefer us on the road too....... hmmm.

I'm gonna be miserable come Thursday, I know it.
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Old 07-06-2005, 13:05
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Re: WC Qualifying - Midweek

Im starting to like Scotland also Mickey - Belarus are no mugs, but they are also a hot and cold team. One minute they can be playing well as in Italy, then they can put in a poor performance against the lesser teams. Bit like Scotland to be honest. I dont think we will get beat - maybe a scorecast would be best. Under 2.5 looks like being the safest bet for this game. But im not getting involved at all big money wise so i have gone for a long shot double.


Scotland/Malta double 2.5pts
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Old 07-06-2005, 19:32
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Re: WC Qualifying - Midweek

Mickey, Kiko, I really do take my hat off to you guys who can see some chinks of light where I can only see dark storm clouds. Mickey, I've just played your link about the Tartan Army Boys - superb.

I'm a Piscean myself and I'm told one of the traits of this star is to be a bit of a dreamer and I must admit I fit the bill on most counts. However Scotland to qualify for Germany next summer is pushing even the dreamboat out a bit far the way I see it

It goes without saying I hope you prove me wrong. I could have laid Scotland on Saturday night at 3.84 but they have drifted somewhat since so I'll be leaving it and hope to see Walter, Tam and Ally doing another jig of delight tomorrow night, even though I can't see it.

I admire your spirit even if I quietly think you're looking at Minsk through Tartan coloured bins. Hope you prove me wrong. I'll tell you what if you two are right we're right back in it.
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