Nascar Thread.

[trickrick]

Good stuff Kosar..

Well I'm on Jimmy..

Is it on any of the channels ..? I thought it might be on NASN but I didnt spot it when I quickly scanned through..

[kosar19]

Live on Skysports 2 (7pm Sun).

We have the Indy race tonight live at 3am. Will give my thoughts on this later (when other books price)

[kosar19]

Originally Posted by kosar19

It has been tough to whittle my final 3 down (and I may need to give some extra thoughts later tonight for the odd saver) but here are my top 3 (although no real value)
*** Jimmie Johnson 6/1 or better only

Relying on JJ to have a big race. Car was fast in testing last week, and went well last night in practice and qualifying. Still a little worried about the funk that Hendricks cars appear to be in, but JJ does like it here, and they fancy their chances

** Denny Hamlin 6/1 or better

Top driver at this track in the past 5 years, and should again be in the thick of things. Do think the Gibbs horsepower is superior to the other teams at the moment

* Kyle Busch 9/2 or better

Cannot leave him out, as he is just awesome at the moment and is Gibbs best driver

Had toyed with Carl Edwards, Kurt Busch, Kasey Kahne and Brian Vickers as well for this race, but think I have the best 3 for the race on Sunday

Sod it. Should have waited to see the whole of the Practice sessions before giving my Top 3. Would have stuck with JJ but most likely would have put Kasey Kahne in my top 3 rather then Busch. The sad thing was, it was Kyle who ruined Jimmie's chances, as the late incident which caused a caution, threw out JJ's, pit strategy gamble. If no caution the majority of cars would have had to pit under Green , and he would most likely have taken over the lead. The other gutter was the poor price of Brian Vickers, who has been a 150/1 poke the majority of races, but because every one waited to see my tissue, we could not get the decent prices for him. Did back him in running at 80/1 with SJ which helped. Still on to next week, and hope for better luck

[kosar19]

And of the 7 drivers I mentioned, 6 of them finished in the Top 10

[kosar19]

Michigan this week, the home of the American motor industry. Well it once was. With Chevy's now made over the border in Canada, and Ford's Mexico way, it is left to those 2 US Stalwarts Dodge and Toyotato fly the flag. Joking apart the suits of Nascar will be that the 'foreigners' of Toyota, do not win in the 'home' of US motor history. Unfortunately they may struggle to get their wish. One thing I can say about this week, is that Chevy's will struggle to win here. Will be going all out to lay those drivers this week. Back later in the week with my main thoughts

[kosar19]

My Hot List

Carl Edwards - has won 3 of the 5 Super Speedway events so far this season (would have been 4 had he not blown an engine 60 laps from the end). Has the best 5 year Ave at Michigan and brings the car he won with in Texas.

Tony Stewart - Smoke has not had the luck so far this season, but goes well here and this is the time of year he gets on a roll.

Kyle Busch - Has been sensational this year, and has either beaten or chased home Edwards in all the 1½m Speedways this year

Kasey Kahne - The hottest driver around at the moment, having won 3 of the past 4 events. Was smoking these events 2 years ago, but struggled all of last season. Looks the man to beat.

Greg Biffle - Has had no luck running, and in the normal scheme of things could have won at least 3 races over the past 6 weeks. Another driver with good vibes here, and a solid chance

Warm List

Denny Hamlin
Kurt Busch
David Ragan
Matt Kenseth

Will be back over the weekend with my final thoughts

[trickrick]

When is qualifying Kosar ?

[kosar19]

Supposed to be on now, but raining at then moment. BIF fastest so far

[kosar19]

Ok, to be honest this is really tough this week, as this could go to any one of around 8 or 9 drivers. Originally I wanted to lay the Chevys, but Jimmie Johnson looks real strong and could lay the Chevy hoodoo here. However I need to make a final selection so here goes.
3*** Greg Biffle
2** Jimmie Johnson
1 * Kasey Kahne

[kosar19]

Go to Boylesports 1st

8/1 Biffle
9/1 Johnson
11/1 Kahne

[kosar19]

Originally Posted by kosar19

Ok, to be honest this is really tough this week, as this could go to any one of around 8 or 9 drivers. Originally I wanted to lay the Chevys, but Jimmie Johnson looks real strong and could lay the Chevy hoodoo here. However I need to make a final selection so here goes.
3*** Greg Biffle
2** Jimmie Johnson
1 * Kasey Kahne

Another really frustrating race, decided in the pits (I hate that). Dale Earnhardt who was a top 10 car at best, threw the dice and stayed out instead of taking a late pitstop, and gambled on lasting out. Kasey Kahne finished 2nd. Jimmie Johnson who had the best car and led most laps, was again beaten by pit strategy for the 2nd week running. While Greg Biffle for the 3rd time in 3 weeks was hit by a pit stop penalty which killed his chance (not sure why the Nascar officials have a problem with him running down one of his crew members ).
On to next week and the first Road race of the season. We will see a few unfamilier names at the top of the betting for this.

[kosar19]

Toyota/Save Mart 350

Small ew interest for the time being (all look value with Bl Sq)

Kyle Busch 20/1
Scott Pruitt 20/1
AJ Allmendinger 66/1

[kosar19]

Well I am completely confused this week. The practice sessions have yielded nothing, with barely a second between the top 30 cars. With Speeds around here of 90mph average (less then half the speed they get up to on normal tracks), it looks like this will come down to driving skill on a road course, pit strategy and good luck.
I think it is only fair to say I will not be offering my Top 3 for this week. I feel that the most likely winner will be Jeff Gordon (generally too short to back). Main dangers look to be Montoya (8/1 Value with BlSq) and Robby Gordon (10/1 again good value with Blsq)
If you want an interest bet would look at last two named.
Others with a chance include, Stewart, Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin and Marcos Ambrose (20/1 with our friends at BlSq is a decent ew bet-of all the sessions he has appeared in the top 5 every time, topping the charts twice)
I may try and post in-running tonight (Skybet,SJ and 365 offering prices), if I see value in running.
Sorry I cannot be of more help

[kosar19]

Originally Posted by kosar19

Toyota/Save Mart 350

Small ew interest for the time being (all look value with Bl Sq)

Kyle Busch 20/1
Scott Pruitt 20/1
AJ Allmendinger 66/1

A bit gutted I did not go along with my strong hunch and stick with Kyle Busch as my main hope. Won a road race in the Nationwide series a few weeks back and has been working hard on a local road course the past few weeks. However he stunk it up on Fridays practice and the 1st practice on Saturday (although did turn in a great run on the last practice session, which I should have taken more notice of). Was superb last night.
Never mind, we move ever onwards, and this week we see the action move onto New Hampshire.
One thing to note from last night was the great run again from Matt Kenseth (He is hopeless on road cources). He is now in the top 12 for the Chase, so the 50/1 I recommended for the Championship, is starting to look really good. Matt is an out and out points chaser, and will continue to have high finishes, now his car is sorted. Has a real chance of getting right in the mix come the final 10 races of the season which make up the Chase.

[kosar19]

Lenox Industrial Tools 301 - New Hampshire

Early thoughts on this weekends race. We have some good marks for most likely winners of this race from previous events. I have a very solid no1 choice, plus am looking at the chances of an expected big price poke, who should go rather well